Why India Is Ineligible for the DV Lottery This Year

(INDIA) India is not eligible for the U.S. Diversity Visa program for the 2026 selection cycle because it exceeds the program’s immigration threshold. Experts say this ineligibility will likely continue until at least 2028 or 2029.

The Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery allocates immigrant visas to people from countries with low immigration rates to the United States over the last five years. India’s recent totals—more than 127,000 immigrants in 2022 and over 78,000 in 2023—place it well above the program’s cap for several consecutive years. As a result, Indian nationals cannot apply for DV-2026 and will remain blocked until the five-year rolling total drops below the program’s threshold.

How the Five‑Year Threshold Works

The rule is straightforward: if a country has sent more than 50,000 immigrants to the United States in the previous five years, its nationals are ineligible to apply for the next DV cycle. This five-year yardstick is the core policy tool for the program.

Because India’s five‑year totals have consistently exceeded 50,000 by a wide margin, the exclusion applies automatically. VisaVerge.com reports that, barring a steep multi-year decline in immigrant numbers, a quick return to eligibility is unlikely; the most realistic window for change points toward the end of the decade.

The DV program uses a rolling five‑year count. Once a country’s total crosses the 50,000 threshold, the DV Lottery is turned off for that country until the rolling sum falls back under the limit.

Other Countries Also Excluded for DV‑2026

India’s exclusion mirrors the treatment of several other high‑volume countries. For DV-2026, people born in these countries are also excluded because each exceeded the five‑year immigration threshold:

• China
• South Korea
• Canada
• Pakistan
• Bangladesh
• Brazil
• Colombia
• Cuba
• The Philippines
• Venezuela

The DV program aims to spread green cards across a wider set of countries; when a country already sends large numbers of immigrants, the program shifts focus to lower‑volume origins.

Country of Birth Matters (Chargeability Rules)

The State Department’s DV rules focus on country of birth, not current citizenship or residence. That distinction affects Indian‑origin families living abroad:

• An Indian passport holder born in India is treated as born in India for DV purposes, even if they live in Dubai, London, or elsewhere.
• Alternate chargeability is possible if a spouse or sometimes a parent was born in an eligible country—specific rules and documentation apply.
• For most Indian‑born applicants, the DV door remains closed while the five‑year numbers stay above the threshold.

The Numbers Behind the Ban

The program does not evaluate why people moved or what visas they used. It counts the total number of immigrants—family‑based, employment‑based, prior diversity selections, and other immigrant paths—over the past five years.

• 2022: India sent >127,000 immigrants.
• 2023: India sent >78,000 immigrants.
• These volumes are well above the 50,000 five‑year standard, which is why the DV Lottery excludes India automatically.

Policy Context and Practical Implications

The Diversity Visa aims to widen the pool of new U.S. permanent residents by reserving visas for countries that historically send fewer immigrants. The five‑year threshold enforces that aim by excluding high‑volume countries.

Because the five‑year window rolls forward annually, a country’s DV status can change over time if immigrant totals fall and stay low for several years. However, analysts (e.g., VisaVerge.com) note India’s persistent family‑ and employment‑based flows make a near‑term reversal unlikely.

The State Department publishes the official list of ineligible countries with each DV instructions release and provides guidance on who can enter and how to proceed. See the official overview at the U.S. Department of State DV Program: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry.html

Common Misconceptions Clarified

• “A high number of student visas caused the DV ban.”
  False. Nonimmigrant visas such as F‑1 student visas are not counted. The threshold counts only immigrants who obtained permanent residence.

• “Paying a service can secure a DV entry despite an excluded birth country.”
  False. Eligibility is determined solely by the State Department’s list. Paid services cannot change the country eligibility.

• “A spouse born in an eligible country can enable an Indian‑born person to apply.”
  True, if the spouse’s country is eligible and the couple meets the spouse‑chargeability rules; both must be listed and intend to immigrate together.

• “India may become eligible next year.”
  Unlikely. Current five‑year totals are far above the threshold; the rolling nature of the calculation makes a quick flip improbable.

The DV Application Process (Overview)

• Entry: Online Electronic Diversity Visa Entry Form DS‑5501 at https://dvprogram.state.gov
• If selected: Complete immigrant visa application DS‑260 at https://ceac.state.gov/IV, then proceed with NVC and consular interview steps
• Tools are free; the State Department warns applicants to avoid scams or unofficial sites that charge for entry

Impact on Indian Applicants and Alternative Routes

The DV exclusion has a tangible impact on many individuals and families who once relied on the random lottery to bypass long backlogs. Without DV, Indian nationals typically use one of these routes:

1. Employment‑based routes
   • Typical path: F‑1 → OPT → H‑1B → employer‑sponsored green card
   • Requires employer sponsorship, PERM labor certification, and an I‑140 (see https://www.uscis.gov/i-140)
   • Subject to quota backlogs and employer commitment
2. Family sponsorship
   • Sponsor files I‑130 for qualifying relatives (see https://www.uscis.gov/i-130)
   • Wait times vary by relationship and preference category
3. Investment/entrepreneur pathways
   • Require significant capital, job creation, and strict compliance; not a substitute for DV
4. Humanitarian protections
   • Eligible only when statutory standards (e.g., asylum) are met; not a general alternative

Each option involves costs, documentation, and often long waits. The DV Lottery’s appeal is its simplicity—no sponsor, no job offer, no investment—so its absence is significant for many.

Practical Steps for Indian Applicants and Families

• Check official sources only:
  • Bookmark the State Department DV page: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry.html
• Avoid paid entry services:
  • Entry is free and only valid through https://dvprogram.state.gov
• Plan long term if family or employment sponsorship is possible:
  • Prepare civil records early
  • Discuss long‑term intent with employers
  • Review USCIS instructions for I‑130 and I‑140

Chargeability Details for Indian‑Origin People Born Outside India

• If you were born in an eligible country, you can generally apply even if you currently hold an Indian passport or reside in India.
• Indian‑born applicants married to a spouse born in an eligible country may claim the spouse’s birth country under spouse‑chargeability rules if requirements are met.
• Proof of birth country will be necessary if selected.

Comparing DV vs. Family and Employment Routes

• DV:
  • Random selection via DS‑5501
  • Later DS‑260 if selected
  • No sponsor, job, or investment required
  • Country of birth must be eligible under the five‑year rule
• Family:
  • Requires I‑130 sponsor and qualifying relationship
  • Predictable process but often slow
• Employment:
  • Employer‑driven, involves I‑140, PERM, and quota considerations
  • Dependent on employer needs and category limits

Important Notes and Final Takeaways

• DV selection does not guarantee a visa — selected entrants still must meet requirements, provide documentation, and may be limited by yearly visa numbers.
• There is no carryover waiting list; each DV year is a fresh draw.
• VisaVerge.com’s analysis and the arithmetic of the five‑year threshold point to continued DV exclusion for India through 2028–2029 unless sustained multi‑year declines occur.
• The DV program’s goal is to widen country representation among new permanent residents; high immigration flows from countries like India work against DV eligibility by design—not as a punitive measure but as a statutory trade‑off.

For official instructions and to confirm eligibility lists, consult:
– U.S. Department of State DV Program: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry.html
– DV entry portal (DS‑5501): https://dvprogram.state.gov
– DS‑260 (Consular Electronic Application Center): https://ceac.state.gov/IV
– USCIS Form I‑130: https://www.uscis.gov/i-130
– USCIS Form I‑140: https://www.uscis.gov/i-140

Plan carefully, rely on official guidance, and treat the DV Lottery as unavailable to Indian‑born applicants for the current and likely several upcoming cycles.