Quebec’s population is set to shrink by about 80,000 people by 2030, according to a new projection released on July 30, 2025, by Quebec’s statistical institute. This marks a 0.9% drop from the province’s 2024 population of nearly 9.1 million. The main reasons are recent changes in immigration policies and low fertility rates, which together are reshaping the future of the Quebec population.
The new forecast comes as Quebec’s government rolls out major reforms to its immigration system. These changes, introduced in 2024 and 2025, aim to reduce both permanent and temporary immigration. The government says these steps are needed to help manage the province’s ability to welcome newcomers, protect the French language, and address economic needs. However, these moves also mean fewer people will be coming to Quebec, which could have lasting effects on the province’s growth and labor market.
Quebec’s population trends show big differences between regions. Quebec City is expected to grow by 21% between 2021 and 2051, while the Montreal metropolitan area is projected to decline by 4.5% over the same period. This means some areas will see more people moving in, while others may lose residents. These shifts will play a big role in how the province plans for the future, especially when it comes to jobs, housing, and public services.
The government’s new immigration policies are at the heart of these changes. In 2025, Quebec introduced a plan to lower both permanent and temporary immigration levels. For permanent residents, the province has proposed three possible targets for annual admissions between 2026 and 2029: 25,000, 35,000, or 45,000 people per year. All of these numbers are lower than the 2025 levels. The government says it wants to focus on immigrants who already live in Quebec, especially those who speak French and can fill important jobs.
For temporary residents, Quebec has set annual targets for the first time. The province wants to reduce the number of non-permanent residents under federal programs from 416,000 in 2024 to 200,000 by 2029. This includes a 50% reduction in temporary foreign workers in Montreal and Laval, two areas facing housing shortages and pressure on public services. These new limits are expected to make it harder for employers to hire international workers and for newcomers to find jobs in these cities.
Some immigration programs have also been suspended or changed. The PEQ (Programme de l’expérience québécoise) Worker stream is suspended until November 30, 2025, and the PEQ Diplomas stream will stay closed until the same date. The Skilled Worker Selection Program (PSTQ) reopened in July 2025, but now gives priority to French-speaking candidates who already live in Quebec. These changes mean that people hoping to move to Quebec from outside the province, especially those who do not speak French, may have to wait longer or look for other options.
Quebec is also introducing new language rules for temporary foreign workers. Draft regulations propose that workers must show a minimum level of French after three years if they want to renew their work permits. This rule does not apply to agricultural workers. The goal is to help newcomers integrate and keep French strong in the province. However, this could make it harder for some workers to stay in Quebec if they struggle with the language.
The province’s push for more control over immigration is also shaping talks with the federal government. Quebec’s Immigration Minister Jean-François Roberge has asked Ottawa to cut the number of International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders from 400,000 to 200,000 before Quebec will consider raising its own immigration targets. This demand highlights Quebec’s desire to have a bigger say in who comes to the province and how many people are admitted each year.
These policy changes have real effects on many groups. Employers and schools that rely on international talent now face tighter rules and may need to change how they hire or recruit. Temporary foreign workers may find it harder to renew their permits or move to permanent residency, especially if they do not speak French. People outside Quebec who want to move there may have fewer chances, at least until the suspended programs reopen. On the other hand, those already living in Quebec, especially French speakers, may find it easier to stay and become permanent residents.
Quebec’s unique approach to immigration comes from its special powers within Canada 🇨🇦. Unlike other provinces, Quebec can set its own immigration targets and choose who gets to come. In recent years, the number of non-permanent residents in Quebec has soared, rising by 203% since 2019 to over 616,000 people. This surge has put pressure on housing, schools, and health care, leading the government to rethink its approach.
Low fertility rates are another key factor behind the projected decline in the Quebec population. The number of children born in the province is not enough to replace the aging population. In the past, immigration helped make up for this shortfall, but with fewer newcomers expected, the population is likely to shrink. This trend could have big effects on the economy, as fewer workers may be available to fill jobs and support older residents.
Looking ahead, Quebec’s immigration plan for 2026-2029 is set to be finalized in October 2025, after a period of public consultation that began in June. The government may adjust its targets and rules based on feedback from the public and ongoing talks with Ottawa. These decisions will shape the province’s future, especially as different regions face very different population trends.
Experts say that the decline in Quebec’s population is the result of a complex mix of low fertility, changing migration patterns, and economic factors. Demographers warn that fewer people could mean slower economic growth and more challenges in caring for an aging population. Immigration specialists point out that Quebec’s focus on French language and integration helps protect its unique culture, but may also make it harder to fill jobs in key sectors.
Some business groups and community leaders have raised concerns about the new immigration policies. They worry that cutting the number of newcomers could make it even harder to find workers, especially in health care, construction, and technology. Others support the government’s cautious approach, saying it is important to make sure newcomers can settle in well and that public services are not stretched too thin.
For people hoping to move to Quebec, it is important to stay informed about the latest rules and deadlines. Those already in the province should pay close attention to new language requirements and program changes. Employers may need to look for new ways to attract and keep workers, such as offering language training or focusing on local talent.
Quebec’s Ministry of Immigration, Francisation and Integration (MIFI) provides official updates and consultation documents on its website. Anyone with questions about immigration programs or forms can find information and contact details there. For those applying to programs like the Skilled Worker Selection Program (PSTQ), the official application form is available online.
As reported by VisaVerge.com, these changes reflect Quebec’s effort to balance economic needs, cultural identity, and the realities of a changing world. The province’s approach may serve as a model for other regions facing similar challenges, but it also raises tough questions about how best to support growth and diversity while protecting local traditions.
In summary, Quebec’s population is expected to decline by 2030 due to new immigration policies and low fertility rates. The government’s focus on French language and integration, combined with lower immigration targets, will shape the province’s future. These changes will affect employers, workers, and families across Quebec, making it important for everyone to stay informed and prepared for what lies ahead.
Learn Today
Permanent Residents → Individuals granted lifelong immigration status to live and work in Quebec indefinitely.
Temporary Foreign Workers → Non-permanent workers authorized for limited periods under specific federal or provincial programs.
PEQ (Programme de l’expérience québécoise) → Quebec’s immigration stream focused on candidates with Quebec work or study experience.
PSTQ (Skilled Worker Selection Program) → Quebec’s program selecting skilled immigrants, prioritizing French-speaking residents already in the province.
International Mobility Program (IMP) → Federal program issuing work permits that Quebec wants to reduce for better immigration control.
This Article in a Nutshell
Quebec faces population decline by 2030 driven by new immigration caps and low fertility rates. The government limits permanent and temporary immigration, emphasizing French language and economic needs. These policies reshape labor markets, housing pressures, and integration. Regional growth contrasts occur, with Quebec City expanding, Montreal shrinking, challenging future planning and services.
— By VisaVerge.com
