(GERMANY) — The ifo Institute published a study on January 14, 2026, linking refugee arrivals in Germany to higher levels of new businesses and job creation across hundreds of districts.
The paper, titled “Asylum Seekers, New Businesses, and Job Creation,” found that the intake of 100 refugees per 10,000 inhabitants was associated with an average of 109 additional jobs and about 7 additional business registrations.
Study findings and mechanism
ifo researcher Sebastian Schirner said the link ran through new demand and adaptation in local economies, not primarily through refugees founding companies.
“The intake of refugees is creating a need for new business models in many places, for example, in the health sector or financial services,” Schirner said.
Researchers analyzed data from approximately 400 German districts between 2007 and 2021, using a district-level approach to connect local changes in refugee arrivals with changes in employment and business registrations.
The study described its findings as a “strong correlation,” meaning it captured how refugee arrivals moved with local business formation and jobs over time, rather than proving a direct cause-and-effect relationship in each district.
Even so, the pattern mattered for labor markets because the effects showed up in both job counts and registrations, two measures that often move slowly in local economies when underlying demand is weak.
On business creation, the study found the influx tied to approximately 7 additional business registrations, a 7.9% increase over average district registrations. The newly registered firms were predominantly founded by Germans rather than by refugees themselves.
That detail pointed to an indirect channel: refugee arrivals coincided with new businesses forming to meet increased demand, rather than the overall effect being driven mainly by refugee entrepreneurship.
The job gains also appeared to lean heavily on expansion at existing firms. Existing companies accounted for three-quarters of the newly created jobs, which the study described as primarily full-time positions.
Sectors mentioned in the study included transport, manufacturing, and financial services, alongside examples of business-model changes such as in the health sector or financial services.
By tying refugee arrivals to new businesses and job growth at the district level, the findings offered a set of metrics that can be read as signals of how local markets respond when population changes quickly.
U.S. policy context and official messaging
In the United States, official messaging from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services over 2025 and early 2026 emphasized national security, fraud prevention, and tighter program oversight.
On January 7, 2026, USCIS spokesperson Matthew Tragesser responded to the launch of Operation PARRIS, described as Post-Admission Refugee Reverification and Integrity Strengthening.
“USCIS’ show of force in Minnesota demonstrates that USCIS will not stand idly by as the US immigration system is weaponized by those seeking to defraud the American people. American citizens first, always,” Tragesser said, in remarks cited by Fox News Digital.
At a House Committee on Homeland Security hearing on December 11, 2025, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem framed the department’s posture around uncertainty over who is in the country and the risk of exploitation of immigration programs.
“What keeps me up at night is that we don’t necessarily know all of the people that are in this country, who they are and what their intentions are. . Our parole programs, our asylum programs, our visa programs were all exploited and the integrity was demolished. we as a country are still dealing with the mistakes, the errors, and the willful disregard of the last administration,” Noem testified, according to a Rev.com transcript.
Public statements like those can shape how applicants and advocates interpret the direction of travel, but they do not, by themselves, substitute for binding policy language in memos, regulations, or formal guidance that sets eligibility rules and adjudication procedures.
Still, messaging can foreshadow operational shifts, including more scrutiny in case reviews, more requests for evidence, and a higher emphasis on security vetting and fraud detection in decisions that remain discretionary under U.S. immigration law.
Key U.S. policy changes and their impacts (as of Jan 15, 2026)
As of January 15, 2026, several U.S. policy changes described during this period carried concrete implications for refugees and asylees in the United States, including a lower refugee ceiling, a country-based pause on some adjudications, retroactive reviews, and shorter work-permit validity.
- Refugee admissions ceiling (FY 2026). The White House set a ceiling of 7,500, described as the lowest in the history of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, according to State.gov in October 2025.
- Hold and Review Policy (PM-602-0194). Effective January 1, 2026, pausing adjudication of benefit applications, including Green Cards and work permits, for nationals from 39 “high-risk” countries.
- Retroactive refugee reviews. USCIS began a comprehensive review of all refugees admitted between January 21, 2021, and February 20, 2025, involving re-interviews and new security checks for an estimated 200,000+ individuals.
- Shorter work-permit validity. Effective December 5, 2025, the validity period for Employment Authorization Documents for refugees and asylees was reduced from five years to 18 months, according to Welcome.US on December 4, 2025.
A lower ceiling can affect the pipeline of cases moving through refugee processing and admissions, shaping how quickly applicants abroad can be brought into the program and how agencies allocate resources across steps that include interviews, vetting, and travel.
A pause in adjudications can stop decisions even for people who have already filed, leaving cases pending while reviews are conducted and adding uncertainty around timelines for work authorization and longer-term status steps that depend on approvals.
Re-interviews and security checks can add new rounds of screening for people already admitted, potentially affecting their ability to plan around work, renewals, and travel while reviews are underway.
Shorter validity for work authorization means more frequent renewals and more interactions with employers and agencies over documentation, particularly for people whose status allows them to work but whose proof of work authorization must be kept current.
Read together, the policies and the official security-focused rhetoric point toward higher verification demands and a more restrictive posture in humanitarian pathways, even as international research such as the German ifo Institute study links refugee arrivals with measurable economic activity, including new businesses and jobs.
For individuals, the practical impact described during this period was longer wait times, increased legal uncertainty, and the potential for status revocation even for those who have been living and working in the U.S. for several years.
Comparative perspective and implications
In Germany, the study’s emphasis on district-level outcomes provided one lens for understanding how local economies absorb refugee arrivals, with the strongest job impacts appearing largely in existing firms and with new registrations largely driven by German founders.
In the United States, the measures described as of January 15, 2026 pointed to a system in which timelines, documentation burdens, and screening expectations could shift quickly, leaving applicants and beneficiaries to track policy memos, effective dates, and program guidance closely.
Official reference points included the ifo Institute press release on the study, as well as U.S. agency pages such as the USCIS Newsroom and DHS press releases, where public-facing announcements are posted alongside broader explanations of agency priorities.
Schirner, describing the study’s mechanism in local markets, said: “The intake of refugees is creating a need for new business models in many places, for example, in the health sector or financial services.”
Recent findings from Germany’s ifo Institute demonstrate a strong correlation between refugee arrivals and local economic expansion, specifically in job creation and new business registrations. Meanwhile, the United States is moving in a different direction, prioritizing national security and fraud detection. The U.S. has introduced significant restrictions, including lower admission caps, retroactive status reviews, and shorter work permit durations, signaling a more demanding environment for humanitarian applicants.
