(CANADA) Canada 🇨🇦 is heading into a tight two-year “expiry wave” as millions of time-limited permissions to live and work in the country run out in 2025 and 2026, while Ottawa also plans lower inflows of new temporary residents. The result is a sharper squeeze on people trying to move from temporary status to permanent residency, and more pressure on employers, schools, and the immigration system.
2024–2026: Why the temporary permit expiry wave is hitting now
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) says nearly 2.9 million temporary resident permits (excluding student visas) expired in 2024 or are set to expire in 2025–2026. That count covers multiple streams of temporary status and points to a large cohort facing deadlines, renewal decisions, or departures in a short window.
Other estimates that include more categories show how the picture changes based on what gets counted. Broader figures place 1.05 million to 1.49 million temporary permits (including Post-Graduation Work Permits) expiring in 2025, plus 927,000 more in 2026, with about 315,000 lapsing by the end of March 2026. These ranges matter because many former international students first held study permits, then moved to Post-Graduation Work Permits, and later shifted into employer-tied work permits.
A large share of expiring permissions belongs to Indian nationals, IRCC-linked reporting shows, and many followed a now-common route: study in Canada, then work authorization, then an attempt to qualify for permanent residence. The sectors mentioned most often in this context include IT and retail, where workforces can include many temporary residents at once.
An expiring permit does not automatically mean a person becomes “out of status.” A timely application to extend or change conditions can keep someone in Canada under maintained status, which allows them to remain while IRCC decides. The timing still matters, because late filings can cut off work authorization and trigger restoration rules.
November 5, 2025: The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan reshapes the odds
Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan is the federal government’s three-year blueprint for how many permanent residents it plans to admit, and how admissions will be divided across economic, family, and humanitarian categories. IRCC released the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan on November 5, 2025, and it signals a more competitive path for many temporary residents hoping to stay.
The plan targets 380,000 permanent residents annually, down 3.8% from 395,000 in 2025. Within that, IRCC set 239,800 economic class spots, or 63.1% of the total, rising to 244,700 in 2027–2028. That economic share is the main lane for many workers and former students, so the exact allocation matters as much as the top-line number.
IRCC also projects temporary resident arrivals will fall to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027–2028. The stated goal is to reduce temporary residents to under 5% of Canada’s population by late 2027, down from 6.5–7%. For people already in Canada on time-limited permission, that “share of population” target signals a government preference for more exits, more controlled entry, and more targeted transitions to permanent status.
VisaVerge.com reports that the plan’s mix of slightly lower permanent resident targets, reduced new temporary inflows, and a firm population-share goal changes the planning math for households that expected multiple tries at permanent residence selection.
Fewer new temporary workers and fewer new study permits: why the direction matters
IRCC projections indicate fewer new entries in two pipelines that feed the Canadian labor market and many permanent residence applications. New temporary foreign workers are projected at 230,000 in 2026, down from 367,750 in 2025. New international student permits are projected at 155,000 in 2026, down 49% from 305,000 in 2025.
These are projections for new arrivals and new authorizations. They do not automatically mean fewer extensions for people already here, and they do not automatically cancel existing rights. Still, the direction affects real decisions.
For employers, fewer new temporary worker entries can tighten hiring options, especially in roles that historically relied on a steady supply of newcomers. That can increase retention pressure, raise wage demands in some jobs, and make compliance mistakes more costly when a worker’s status is time-limited.
For schools, fewer new study permits can reduce enrollment and revenue, and it can change who gets admitted. It can also change the downstream pool of graduates competing for jobs that support longer-term status.
For individuals, the bigger point is competition. A smaller projected inflow does not guarantee easier outcomes for people already in Canada. It often means IRCC and provinces can put tighter controls around transitions, including which occupations get priority.
Permanent residency limits, enforcement, and the backlog that shapes daily life
The numbers underline a simple constraint. Only a fraction of the 2.9 million expiring temporary resident permits can translate into permanent residence when annual admissions sit near 395,000 in 2025 and 380,000 in the 2026–2028 plan. IRCC expects many others to leave, and enforcement data shows the state has tools to act when people do not.
Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) data showed over 30,000 active removal warrants as of December 2025. An active removal warrant generally means the government has a legal order connected to removal steps for a person, and it can be executed if the person comes to attention.
At the same time, experts estimate nearly 1 million individuals are already out of status in Canada. Estimates vary because “out of status” can include different groups, including people who overstayed, people refused but not removed, and people with pending matters whose authorization changed. The practical risk is consistent: people without valid status often face job loss, housing instability, and a higher chance of exploitation.
Processing delays add another layer. IRCC’s backlog stands at 2.2 million files, and Canadian Experience Class processing has been running over 12 months. When a permit is about to expire, a long processing time often forces people into interim options, such as maintained status or bridging permits, to keep working legally.
2026–2027 transition measures being used, and ideas still “under discussion”
IRCC has outlined some targeted transition measures, but the emphasis remains on limited, specific pathways rather than blanket fixes.
One measure is fast-track permanent residency for up to 33,000 temporary workers in 2026–2027. That number shows the scale: meaningful for those who qualify, but small compared with the number of expiring temporary resident permits.
The Levels Plan also includes 115,000 Protected Persons transitioning to permanent status by 2027. This is a separate policy track from economic immigration, and it reflects Canada’s humanitarian commitments. It does not function as a substitute for economic pathways for workers and graduates.
Other ideas have been discussed in the policy space, including possible one-time Post-Graduation Work Permits extensions, occupation-specific open work permits, and faster bridging permits. These ideas matter because they could reduce gaps between an expiring permit and a permanent residence decision. People should still plan around the rules that exist today, because unannounced measures can’t be relied on for legal status.
Legal routes for expiring status in 2025–2026: what each pathway does
People facing expiry typically fall into a few broad situations: they qualify to apply for permanent residence now, they need more time to qualify, or they have no viable immigration pathway and must prepare to depart. The safest planning starts with the expiry date and the last day someone is authorized to work.
Express Entry (permanent residence): Express Entry remains a main route for economic immigration. It covers federal programs, including Canadian Experience Class, and it has moved toward category-based selection that emphasizes areas such as healthcare, trades, and education. Competition is high, and timelines can affect job continuity.
Bridging Open Work Permit (BOWP): A bridging open permit is designed for some permanent residence applicants in Canada whose work permit is expiring soon. It helps keep a worker authorized while IRCC processes the permanent residence file. It does not replace the permanent residence decision, and it does not fix ineligibility.
Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs): Provinces use PNPs to fill local labor needs and support regional growth. PNPs often require ties to a province, such as work history, a job offer, education in the province, or experience in an occupation on a priority list. For some, a nomination becomes the turning point that makes a federal permanent residence application viable.
Restoration (after status expires): People who lose status have a 90-day restoration window. Restoration has limits, and a person often cannot work until they regain authorization. Missing the restoration window can sharply reduce options and can trigger departure planning.
Refugee claims: A refugee claim must be based on a genuine fear of persecution. It is not a workaround for economic hardship or missed deadlines. False claims and misrepresentation can lead to bans and long-term consequences that follow a person across borders.
For IRCC’s official instructions on extending status, changing conditions, and restoration, see Extend your stay in Canada. That guidance matters for anyone counting days toward expiry.
Overstaying: practical consequences, system pressure, and a recent Start-Up Visa change
Overstaying in Canada brings direct and predictable impacts. A person can lose the legal right to work or study, face enforcement action, and see future applications refused. Employers can also face compliance exposure if they keep someone working without authorization, even when the person previously held valid permits.
Legal services are also under strain. Edmonton lawyer Shawer described unprecedented demand for help and questioned whether widespread non-departure harms Canada’s image. That demand reflects how many households face the same deadlines, and how hard it is to secure fast decisions when backlogs are high.
The Levels Plan allocations also matter beyond workers and graduates. IRCC set 84,000 admissions for family reunification in 2026, and 56,200 for refugees. Those numbers affect overall system capacity because officer time and processing resources are shared across lines of business.
Recent program rules also show how quickly conditions can change. Start-Up Visa work permits ended on December 19, 2025. IRCC also halted new Start-Up Visa permanent residence applications on December 31, 2025, while allowing exceptions for 2025 commitments through June 30, 2026. For founders and their teams, that cutoff changes both work authorization planning and the timing of permanent residence strategies during the 2025–2026 period.
