(SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA) Refugee claims in Saskatchewan jumped by 98% in 2025, a spike that local advocates and federal data tie to recent immigration cuts that have slowed permanent resident admissions and tightened asylum rules. The surge places extra strain on a province that has not historically seen high asylum numbers, and it comes as Canada 🇨🇦 moves to reduce overall intake this year. Newcomers who expected stable pathways to settle now face longer waits and shrinking options, with many stuck in limbo.
National context and backlog
The increase in Saskatchewan mirrors national pressure points. Canada recorded 57,440 asylum claims in the first half of 2025, putting the country on track for nearly 115,000 claims by year’s end. Pending cases before the Immigration and Refugee Board have swelled to more than 291,975, a historic backlog that leaves claimants waiting months or years for hearings and decisions.
The IRB notes that high intake and limited capacity continue to push processing times upward. Local shelters and legal aid groups report heavier caseloads. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the combination of rising demand and policy restraint has created bottlenecks across several provinces, including Saskatchewan.
The backlog of 291,975 pending cases is driving longer waits and heavier demand on local services.
Federal policy changes driving the shift
The federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, unveiled in October 2024, cut permanent resident targets to 395,000 in 2025, down from an earlier plan of 500,000. Ottawa framed the move as a pause to help ease pressure on housing and infrastructure. Officials also signaled further decreases for 2026 and 2027, reinforcing a more cautious approach.
- Impact of the levels plan:
- Slowed pathways for temporary residents and sponsored family members.
- Advocates say the shift is pushing some to consider asylum when other routes stall.
At the same time, refugee protection admissions from abroad were reduced by 31%, sharply limiting the number of people who can resettle directly to Canada as permanent residents with protected status.
- Community concerns:
- Fewer resettlement spaces can redirect vulnerable people toward irregular channels.
- This feeds domestic asylum systems already stretched thin.
Local impacts in Saskatchewan
For smaller provinces like Saskatchewan, the effect is magnified because local support networks are thinner and ramping up capacity takes time. Service providers describe a patchwork response:
- Municipalities finding short-term beds
- School divisions adding newcomer supports
- Health clinics trying to keep pace
Provincial officials say they are monitoring shelter space and legal aid funding but acknowledge that a sudden wave is tough to manage when agency budgets are fixed for the year.
Political developments and proposed asylum changes
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in March 2025, has backed a restrained stance on intake this year. In June, his government introduced legislation to narrow eligibility for asylum, including a proposal to bar claims from people who have been in Canada for more than one year without filing.
- Supporters’ argument:
- A one-year bar would discourage late or weak claims and help clear the backlog by focusing resources on faster filings.
- Critics’ argument:
- People fleeing danger often need time to settle, find counsel, and gather evidence.
- A strict one-year bar could increase deportations of people who overstayed for reasons ranging from fear to confusion about shifting policies.
Parliament is set to debate the bill through the fall; policy watchers expect amendments that could soften some provisions while keeping a tighter overall framework. Saskatchewan MLAs have kept comments measured, stressing the need for federal funding to match rising demand on provincial services.
Who is affected locally
Claimants and community supports describe tangible strains:
- Many arrived as students or workers expecting to transition to permanent residence; those pathways narrowed unexpectedly.
- Others are recent arrivals with urgent protection needs but face longer waits for the first stage of their claims.
- Legal clinics report heavier demand for:
- Orientation
- Document gathering
- Hearing preparation
Waits at the Immigration and Refugee Board vary by region and case type. Advocates warn that long gaps between arrival and decision can worsen mental health and strain family budgets. Landlords, employers, and community sponsors also face mixed signals as timelines shift.
Economic and service pressures
Federally, ministers point to housing shortages and stressed public services to explain the immigration cuts. They say the aim is to steady demand while building capacity, not to close Canada’s doors. Still, knock-on effects include:
- Slower family reunification adding pressure on shelters when relatives cannot host newcomers
- Reduced resettlement spaces leading more people to pursue asylum inside Canada
- Rapid increases in claimant numbers forcing provinces to request extra support for:
- Schooling
- Language training
- Health care
National patterns also shape local choices. Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec remain the main destinations for refugee claimants because of larger networks and established services. As those systems queue, some people look to other provinces for faster access to housing and work.
Saskatchewan employers — especially in food processing, agriculture, and construction — continue to advertise jobs that do not always match the timelines of refugee claimants seeking work permits. Community groups emphasize that coordination between federal and provincial agencies will be key to avoid gaps that push people into unstable housing or unregulated work.
Community responses on the ground
Local voices bring the numbers into focus. Settlement workers in Regina and Saskatoon describe:
- Families splitting rent with friends
- Parents juggling part-time jobs while waiting for work authorization
- Students unsure whether to keep studying as status questions mount
Churches and community groups have opened short-term shelters as the weather shifts. Legal clinics have set up weekend workshops to help people complete forms and understand timelines. Even with volunteer help, service providers say the system is stretched, and a winter spike could test shelter capacity.
What the IRB and officials say
The Immigration and Refugee Board provides regular data on claims, hearings, and decisions. Its public statistics page offers a window into the current load and pace across the country. Readers can review national and regional figures on the Immigration and Refugee Board website for the latest numbers and trends.
For Saskatchewan, officials expect claim volumes to stay high through the year unless federal intake targets or resettlement numbers shift again. In the meantime, community agencies are asking for emergency funding to keep beds open and legal aid available.
Key takeaways
- Saskatchewan saw a 98% increase in refugee claims in 2025, reflecting national pressures from immigration cuts and reduced resettlement admissions.
- Canada faces nearly 115,000 claims projected for 2025 and a backlog exceeding 291,975 pending cases.
- Federal policy changes — including a cut to 395,000 permanent resident targets for 2025 and a 31% reduction in refugee protection admissions — have narrowed settlement pathways and increased strain on domestic asylum systems.
- Local services in Saskatchewan are adapting with temporary shelters, expanded newcomer supports, and legal aid, but they request additional federal funding to manage sustained demand.
The choices made in Ottawa — and how they are funded on the ground — will determine whether claimants find stability or face longer waits and tougher rules. For now, the spike in refugee claims, combined with immigration cuts and a heavy national backlog, has made a complex system even harder for newcomers to navigate, with costs felt in classrooms, clinics, and kitchens across the province.
This Article in a Nutshell
Saskatchewan experienced a 98% rise in refugee claims in 2025 amid federal immigration cuts that reduced permanent resident targets to 395,000 and cut resettlement admissions by 31%. Canada saw 57,440 asylum claims in H1 2025, on pace for roughly 115,000 claims in 2025, while the IRB backlog surpassed 291,975 pending cases. The surge strains Saskatchewan services—shelters, legal aid, schools and health clinics—which are expanding supports and seeking federal funding to cope.
