Canada’s 2026-2028 Immigration Plan: What to Expect and Why

(CANADA) Canada’s next Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 is expected in the fall of 2025, likely in November. It will set the country’s permanent resident targets and the path for managing the temporary resident population.

Federal officials say the new plan will extend the current “stability” approach, keeping annual permanent resident admissions at less than 1% of the population, while easing pressure on housing and services through tighter control of temporary entries.

The government’s consultations wrapped up on August 17, 2025, after outreach to provinces, territories, rural and Francophone communities outside Quebec, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomer groups. Nearly 200 organizations pushed for clearer targets and stronger coordination across programs. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, this broad input signals that Ottawa aims to balance labor needs with social capacity while staying the course on sustainability.

Policy outlook: targets, category mix, and focus on stability

The new Immigration Levels Plan will build on the current 2025–2027 framework. Ottawa’s existing targets set admissions at:

• 395,000 for 2025
• 380,000 for 2026
• 365,000 for 2027

This downward glide points to admissions stabilizing under 1% of Canada’s population each year. Federal officials are expected to maintain that general path through 2028, prioritizing steady intake over sharp increases.

Key composition and priorities:

• Economic class: By 2027, about 62% of newcomers are expected through the economic class, with emphasis on skilled workers in healthcare, STEM, and skilled trades.
• Family reunification: Planned at around 22% of admissions, supporting spouses, partners, children, parents, and grandparents.
• Humanitarian stream: Set near 15%, maintaining resettlement for vulnerable people, including human rights defenders, LGBTQI+ refugees, and religious minorities.
• Transition to permanence: More than 40% of permanent resident admissions are expected to come from applicants with Canadian experience as temporary residents. Officials say this improves settlement outcomes and addresses labor needs without immediate strain on public systems.

Impact on applicants: temporary population cuts and program changes

The government has tied the Immigration Levels Plan to a firm goal for temporary residents: reduce the total temporary resident population to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Planned inflows of new temporary residents (annual):

• 673,650 in 2025
• 516,600 in 2026
• 543,600 in 2027

International students are projected to make up about 45% of temporary arrivals in 2025—a meaningful factor as Ottawa works to stabilize demand for housing and community services.

Projected stock changes of temporary residents:

• Drop by 445,901 in 2025
• Drop by 445,662 in 2026
• Increase of 17,439 in 2027

This sequence reflects the government’s attempt to correct pandemic-era growth and return to a more sustainable pace. Officials argue these cuts will help protect program integrity and make it easier for newcomers and communities to succeed.

Express Entry reset and selection priorities

A 2026 reset of the Express Entry system is planned, including a new “Leadership and Innovation” category to match evolving economic goals.

Recent draw thresholds (August 2025):

• 739 for Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP)
• 534 for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

Candidates should expect the 2026 reset to keep selection targeted toward skills that match labor demand. Those with recent Canadian experience—particularly in healthcare, STEM, and trades—may see advantages.

Study and work permit rule changes

Recent policy updates narrow some pathways from temporary to permanent status:

• Since January 2025, open work permit access for spouses has been tightened to limit eligibility to spouses of high-skilled workers and graduate-level students.
• Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) rules now require language ability and alignment with in-demand fields for certain programs.

These changes signal Ottawa’s push for higher quality in the study-to-work pipeline and closer links to labour market needs.

Family and Francophone priorities

• Parents and Grandparents Program: The 2025 intake began with invitations sent from July 28 to those who submitted interest forms in 2020. Details for 2026 and beyond are pending, but current practice suggests steady but limited intake.
• Francophone newcomers outside Quebec: Targets set at 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, 10% in 2027, with a goal of 12% by 2029 to strengthen French-speaking communities nationwide.

Effects for communities, employers, and services

Immediate and sectoral impacts:

• Employers in healthcare, engineering, technology, construction, and trades may see more predictable pathways to retain talent already working locally.
• Sectors reliant on large seasonal or entry-level inflows could face tighter hiring conditions as the temporary population falls.
• Regional planners and municipal leaders may benefit from predictable permanent resident targets for forecasting schools, transit, and healthcare staffing.

Government modelling for the 2025–2027 plan projects:

• Population decline of 0.2% in 2025 and 2026
• Population growth of 0.8% in 2027

This reflects a clear pivot from expansion-focused years; the stated goal is to pair stable intake with housing and infrastructure planning to support long-term prosperity.

Practical guidance for applicants

• Express Entry hopefuls: Watch for category priorities and the 2026 reset timeline. Those in healthcare, STEM, and trades, or with recent Canadian experience, could benefit most.
• International students: With stricter PGWP rules for some programs, choose fields aligned with in-demand jobs, invest in language training, and plan work options carefully.
• Newcomer families: Expect the family share to remain around 22%. Parents and grandparents sponsorship may have limited windows and long queues—early planning and careful documentation are essential.
• Refugee/humanitarian sponsors and settlement agencies: Stable ~15% humanitarian targets allow better planning for housing and services, particularly for at-risk groups such as LGBTQI+ refugees and religious minorities.

Important takeaway: The policy choices emphasize making more use of talent already in Canada, prioritizing skills the country needs most, and pacing growth to match housing, classrooms, and clinics on the ground. The result is likely a steadier—but more selective—system that rewards Canadian experience and labor-market ties while keeping room for family and humanitarian commitments.

For official background and past targets, consult the federal overview of the Immigration Levels Plan on IRCC’s website at the Immigration Levels Plan (IRCC). The upcoming 2026–2028 release in November will provide the final numbers by class and program, including targets for Francophone admissions and transition shares.

As Canada 🇨🇦 heads into the fall announcement, many families, workers, employers, and communities will be watching how the final plan balances stability, skills, and social capacity.