Takaichi Victory Signals Delayed Immigration Reform in Japan

(JAPAN) Sanae Takaichi’s win in the October 2025 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election has pushed Japan toward more restrictive immigration at the national level, delaying any move toward a broad, long-term reform plan. The Takaichi victory signals where the LDP leadership is heading right now: tighter controls on foreign residents, sharper compliance checks, and a political message centered on cultural protection at a time when the economy faces deep labor gaps and an aging population.

Takaichi campaigned on policies that promised stricter screening and stronger oversight of foreign residents. Party insiders say the approach grew from worries about losing conservative votes to the Sanseito party, which gained attention in the July 2025 upper house contest by opposing what it called “excessive acceptance of foreigners.” In this climate, the leadership race pulled even reform-minded candidates to the right, with rivals echoing pledges to limit access to public benefits and tighten monitoring of foreign residents. The result is a clearer national posture: more restriction and less focus on integration.

Policy moves under Takaichi

The most immediate change is a tougher line on the Business Manager Visa. In August 2025, the Immigration Services Agency published draft changes that would raise the minimum capital requirement for new applications from ¥5 million to ¥30 million, with stricter vetting to stop abuse. Officials indicated enforcement will begin in mid-October 2025.

Business groups warn the higher bar could shut out serious small investors, including foreign entrepreneurs who create local jobs. Takaichi allies argue the change is needed to prevent sham companies and protect social order.

The government also announced a broader immigration policy review in August. A new task force is examining:

• Caps on foreign nationals
• Expanded oversight tools
• Ways to manage social risks as the foreign resident population grows

Internal discussions include planning for a future in which foreign nationals could approach 10% of the population. Supporters frame this as careful risk management; critics see it as another step that will make a cautious system even tighter and keep the national debate fixed on control rather than community-building.

Compliance enforcement is set to stiffen further. A measure announced in early 2025 will allow the government to revoke visas from June 2027 for long-term residents who fail to pay taxes or social insurance. Officials insist most residents have nothing to fear if they follow the rules.

However, legal advisers warn that foreign families—especially workers in low-wage sectors with unstable hours—may struggle to keep perfect records. That increases stress and the risk of status loss over simple mistakes. Employers that rely on flexible staffing also face exposure if payroll and filings are not airtight.

Not every development is restrictive. Pathways to permanent residency for investors and highly skilled professionals have been streamlined, and job mobility for foreign workers has improved in some sectors. Still, these advances are paired with broader and tougher compliance tools, reinforcing the government’s message that admission and stay depend on stricter accountability.

“Firms are being told they can hire foreign talent, but they must ‘treat immigration paperwork like financial audits,’” — a Tokyo-based human resources director.

National-local split widens

Tension between Tokyo’s tone and local priorities is growing.

In July 2025, all 47 prefectural governors issued the Aomori Declaration, urging the Diet to pass a Basic Law on Intercultural Coexistence and to secure stable budgets for integration. Local governments—especially in manufacturing and care sectors—say they need clear rules, steady funding for language training, and support services to help residents and newcomers live well together.

Communities are already adapting in many places. Cities such as Hamamatsu and Kawasaki have long-running programs covering language instruction, schooling support, housing advice, and local mediation.

National policymakers under Takaichi, however, have emphasized control. Party debates now lean toward policing foreign residents rather than integrating them as full community members. This shift has political logic: it rallies conservative base voters and supports an image of order. But it sits at odds with local realities:

• Shrinking workforces and higher care needs
• Emptying classrooms and fiscal pressure on local budgets
• Factories unable to meet orders and nursing homes unable to fill shifts without more workers

Analysts warn that persistent myths are clouding decision-making. Claims about widespread welfare abuse or rising foreign crime continue to circulate, even though government data show foreign residents’ welfare usage is proportionate or falling and recorded crime rates have trended down.

Local officials say misinformation fuels fear, making it harder to launch language classes, parent support lines, bus-route changes, and other practical steps that help neighborhoods function smoothly. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the communication gap between national messaging and local program needs has grown more visible over the past year, with prefectures seeking clearer legal backing to sustain integration efforts.

Impact on foreign residents and employers

For foreign entrepreneurs and small investors, the ¥30 million capital threshold is the most immediate hurdle. Legal counselors advise applicants to expect deeper document checks and site visits once the new standard takes effect in mid-October 2025.

Applicants will need:

• Specific, verifiable business plans
• Contracts, tax projections, payroll plans
• Evidence of real office leases

Those who cannot meet the higher capital bar may seek other status options, but choices can be limited. Experts caution against hasty applications intended to bypass new rules; rushed filings often lead to denials and flag future reviews.

Workers in technical intern programs and Specified Skilled Worker categories face different pressures. Even where job mobility has improved, tighter enforcement of tax and social insurance obligations will demand careful attention to payslips, withholdings, and employer filings. Labor advocates expect more disputes over unpaid contributions and paperwork errors.

Practical advice for foreign residents:

• Keep copies of every payslip and residence card update
• Retain proof of tax and social insurance filings
• Correct small mistakes promptly to avoid escalation

Employers, especially in manufacturing, food processing, logistics, and elder care, will need to strengthen compliance teams. Recommended steps include:

1. Assign staff to review tax and social insurance submissions monthly and follow up on errors immediately.
2. Provide workers with clear, translated checklists covering deductions, filings, and what to do if a payslip looks wrong.
3. Build relationships with local governments and nonprofits that run language and counseling programs to improve retention and reduce misunderstandings.
4. Budget time for deeper visa-related audits, especially when hiring new graduates or mid-career talent from abroad.

Despite the tough talk, some ministries and local bodies continue to push for a stable framework that supports coexistence. The Ministry of Justice’s Immigration Services Agency maintains official guidance and updates, including policy notices and residence status information, on its website. For authoritative references on residence status categories, permitted activities, and recent policy notices, readers can consult the Immigration Services Agency of Japan.

Economic and political implications

Economists emphasize that Japan’s labor shortfall is structural: a shrinking birthrate, rising care needs, and strong demand in high-tech and green sectors. While the national debate centers on control, employers say they need predictable rules and a steady pipeline of workers. Without a comprehensive plan:

• Recruitment costs rise
• Newcomers churn faster
• Families hesitate to settle

Companies with global footprints warn that Japan risks losing investment if it cannot offer clear paths for skilled teams to live, work, and move within the country.

Politically, the harder line may be rational in the short term. It shores up conservative support inside the LDP and blunts pressure from parties to its right. But the focus on restriction over integration leaves a question about the medium-term outlook.

If foreign residents are expected to fill key roles in factories, research labs, and care homes, they also need public policies that help them put down roots:

• Stable schooling for children
• Reliable health access
• Career advancement opportunities

Local leaders argue that without these basics, Japan will keep training people who then leave, and industries will face recurring shortages.

For now, the message from LDP leadership is clear: oversight first, integration later. Officials point to cleaner data collection, quicker action against fraud, and safeguards they say prevent social division. Local governments counter that division is far less likely when residents—new and longtime—have language support, dispute resolution help, and simple, regular contact with city offices.

The Aomori Declaration’s call for a Basic Law on Intercultural Coexistence is intended to give those tools a firm legal base and a steady budget line.

Near-term calendar and stakes

Key dates to watch:

• Mid-October 2025 — Business Manager Visa overhaul takes effect (¥30 million capital requirement).
• Fall–Winter 2025 — Broad immigration review continues, with proposals on caps and oversight instruments.
• June 2027 — Compliance rule allowing visa revocation for unpaid taxes/social insurance becomes applicable.

Japan stands at a crossroads. The Takaichi victory has stabilized a political path that favors control and restriction, signaling to the conservative base. It has also postponed a wider reckoning with how to welcome, support, and retain the foreign residents the economy increasingly depends on.

Whether national policy can bend toward a balanced model—one that combines fair rules with real integration—will shape communities, workplaces, and Japan’s growth prospects for years to come.