Can the U.S. Fix the Green Card Backlog for India and China?

The United States is facing a deepening green card backlog for high-skilled workers from India and China, with wait times now stretching decades due to long-standing legal limits that cap both annual numbers and country shares. At the center are two core rules: per-country caps that limit each nation to 7% of employment-based green cards each year, and an overall ceiling of about 140,000 employment-based green cards annually, a number that includes spouses and children. Together, these limits have produced multi-decade queues for Indian professionals and long delays for many Chinese applicants in popular categories like EB-2 and EB-3, raising urgent questions about whether Congress and the administration can deliver relief.

USCIS case totals show a broader system under strain. According to agency figures for Q2 FY2025, there are 11.3 million pending cases across immigration benefits, while employer-sponsored green card processing now averages 3.4 years even before applicants join the queue caused by statutory caps. In FY2025, the government halted EB-2 green card issuance until September 30, a move that hit Indian applicants hardest because of already outsized demand. VisaVerge.com reports that the stop-start nature of visa number availability has become common in recent years, with rollover years offering temporary relief but little lasting change to the underlying wait.

Mounting Delays and Who Is Affected

The math is straightforward and unforgiving. With roughly 140,000 employment-based green cards available each year and each country limited to 7% of that pool, high-demand countries quickly outpace the available supply. Studies cited by advocates show that some Indian applicants could wait 40–70 years, and in extreme projections even longer, for permanent residency.

For many Chinese professionals, the queue stretches beyond a decade, especially in:

• EB-2 (advanced degree or exceptional ability)
• EB-3 (skilled workers and professionals)

Because dependents count toward the cap, families add to the totals without increasing the number of principal workers able to receive green cards.

Human and family impacts

The human impact is stark and wide-ranging:

• Families live in visa limbo for years, unable to plan or put down roots.
• Children who arrived on dependent visas risk “aging out” at age 21, losing dependent status while parents remain stuck.
• Workers often feel locked into current roles because changing jobs can mean losing a place in line even after years of waiting.
• Spouses with advanced degrees sometimes cannot work due to dependent visa restrictions.
• Parents may consider sending children to college abroad to avoid uncertainty.
• Families delay buying homes, starting businesses, or investing locally.

Employers feel the strain too: they must sponsor and retain critical staff while competing with countries that offer faster routes to residency.

For baseline rules on employment-based preference categories, see the USCIS guidance: USCIS – Permanent Workers.

Policy Levers on the Table

Members of Congress and policy experts have proposed a range of fixes—some modest, some sweeping—but none have passed both chambers. Key ideas include:

• Eliminate per-country caps
  • Treat all applicants the same regardless of birthplace.
  • Likely shorten waits for applicants from large queues (notably India), but could extend waits for applicants from smaller countries that currently benefit from the 7% allocation.
• Recapture unused visas
  • Add previously unissued green cards (due to processing slowdowns) back into current totals to chip away at the backlog.
• Raise visa caps
  • Increase the annual number of employment-based green cards. This would address demand vs. supply but requires Congressional action.
• Adjust priority rules
  • Move away from strict first-come, first-served to prioritize higher wages, specific skills, or critical industries tied to labor-market needs.

Notable legislative proposals

• Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act
  • Seeks to remove per-country caps entirely.
  • Supporters: ends birthplace-driven queues.
  • Critics: without increasing overall visa numbers, it may simply redistribute waits, displacing applicants from countries that historically faced shorter delays.
• Dignity Act of 2025
  • Proposes a broad package including:
  • Doubling the per-country limit from 7% to 15%
  • Excluding spouses and children from the employment-based numerical cap (increasing principal workers who can receive green cards)
  • Targeting the backlog so no one waits more than 10 years by 2035
  • Funding to reduce USCIS backlogs and modernize infrastructure
  • Signals bipartisan interest in a comprehensive approach, though its path through Congress is uncertain.

The central legislative choice: pursue targeted fixes that give short-term relief, or overhaul the system to reshape allocation for the next decade. Without new visa numbers, administrative changes alone cannot erase cumulative queues for EB-2 and EB-3.

What’s at Stake for the U.S. Economy and Families

The consequences extend beyond individual cases to national competitiveness and community stability.

Key economic and social stakes:

• America’s ability to attract and retain global talent supports sectors such as health care, AI, and advanced manufacturing.
• Without reform, the U.S. risks losing scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs to countries with faster paths to permanence (e.g., Canada 🇨🇦, Australia, and parts of Europe).
• Employers face delayed promotions, stalled leadership pipelines, and higher costs to keep essential staff on temporary visas.
• Families experience long-term stress, missed opportunities to build wealth, and weakened ties to communities.

Recent cutoffs—such as the EB-2 halt through September 30 in FY2025—show how quickly the process can shut down for a year, even for those far along. When combined with the 3.4-year average processing time for employer-sponsored cases (before priority date waits), the system becomes a maze with moving walls.

Temporary rollovers of unused numbers have offered brief relief in some years, but as VisaVerge.com notes, they “barely make a dent” in the mismatch between supply and demand.

Policy debate and trade-offs

• Critics of raising caps argue:
  • The labor market should rely more on domestic training.
  • Easier green card access could undercut wages.
• Supporters counter:
  • Caps were set in a different era and don’t reflect current labor needs.
  • The modern economy requires both homegrown and global talent.
  • Long-term residents on temporary visas are already integrated and vetted.

Both perspectives can coexist: the U.S. can invest in domestic training while creating a fair, timely path for contributors already in-country.

Near-term and Long-term Options

Possible near-term steps:

1. One-time recapture of unused visas to reduce wait times for backlog categories.
2. Clearer agency guidance on job mobility for applicants with long-pending cases.
3. Targeted funding boosts to USCIS to cut processing times.

Longer-term changes likely require Congress to:

• Raise or restructure the 140,000 cap.
• Revisit per-country caps to balance fairness and avoid life-long waits.

The issue is more than paperwork: it affects children who age out at 21, workers who decline promotions for fear of losing position in line, and spouses who cannot pursue careers due to visa rules tied to a principal applicant’s status.

Business groups, universities, and local officials warn the status quo is unsustainable. Immigrants continue to renew visas and comply with rules year after year while their lives remain on hold.

Conclusion

The green card backlog is the result of historical policy choices reinforced over time. Without reform, the backlog will continue to grow.

The current system is defined by a few hard numbers:

• 7% per-country caps
• 140,000 annual employment-based green cards (including family members)
• Waits measured in life stages rather than months

Lawmakers face a clear choice: maintain the current structure and manage the fallout of decades-long lines for some, or rewrite the rules to reflect modern labor needs, family realities, and global competition for talent.

Whatever path Congress and the administration choose—recapture, raised caps, retooled priorities, or a comprehensive package like the Dignity Act—the outcome will ripple through boardrooms and living rooms. Families will notice first. The U.S. economy will follow. America’s status as a magnet for skill and drive will depend on how quickly and clearly the country acts.