The Trump administration is moving to rewrite the H‑1B visa and student visa systems in ways that would sharply narrow who can live, study, and work in the United States, with the steepest impact on Indian nationals who make up the majority of H‑1B workers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this month the H‑1B program is a “scam” and promised a major overhaul, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called the program “indentured servitude.” A draft rule approved in August sets the stage for replacing the long‑running H‑1B lottery with a wage‑based selection, and new limits on student visas are expected later this year.
At the core is a shift that would rank H‑1B filings by wage level, giving first pick to the highest‑pay, highest‑skill jobs and squeezing out entry‑level and mid‑career roles common in IT services. The White House is also promoting a “Gold Card” idea for permanent residence tied to a minimum $5 million investment, while proposing tougher standards for employment‑based green cards that tilt toward higher salaries and advanced degrees. Together, these proposals would reward elite positions in big tech and finance while cutting back the pipeline that has long brought Indian engineers and students into the U.S. economy—India’s so‑called “soft exports” of talent.
Officials say they want only the “best and brightest” to come, and President Trump has echoed support for admitting “really competent people.” But the change in method matters: by ranking pay first, the government would make many common H‑1B roles uncompetitive. Indians receive more than 70% of H‑1B approvals each year. In 2024, roughly 400,000 H‑1B applications (including renewals) were approved, with the bulk going to Indian IT and STEM workers. The annual cap for new visas remains at 85,000 (including 20,000 reserved for U.S. master’s degree holders), but a wage‑first system could reshape who wins those slots.
Policy Moves Taking Shape
Key actors and positions
– Howard Lutnick: Leading design of the new system; has called the current program unfair to U.S. workers.
– Ron DeSantis: Argues H‑1B replaces Americans and depresses wages.
– Stephen Miller: Pushing strict enforcement across work and student categories, including limits on OPT.
Key details moving forward include:
– Wage‑based H‑1B allocation to replace the lottery, with higher wages prioritized.
– A proposed “Gold Card” for investors who put at least $5 million into the U.S.
– Student visa rules expected to shorten stay lengths and narrow eligibility paths.
– A focus on pushing green cards toward higher earners; officials have questioned why the average employment‑based green card salary hovers around $66,000.
A draft H‑1B regulation cleared the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in August. Final rules could appear late this year, with a likely phase‑in beginning in early 2026. Supporters say the approach will protect U.S. jobs and attract top global talent and wealth. Critics warn it would exclude many skilled early‑career professionals, raise costs for smaller employers, and send talent to Canada, the UK, and Australia or into remote roles outside the country.
Impact on Applicants and Employers
For Indian IT and STEM workers—especially those at outsourcing and consulting firms—the practical effect is stark. Under wage‑based ranking, a new graduate programmer or business analyst—even with strong academics—would lose ground to higher‑paid senior engineers, data scientists, and quant roles. That shift could thin the pipeline from student to work status, because the H‑1B has been the most common bridge from F‑1 OPT to long‑term employment.
Employers face several operational effects:
– Pressure to raise wages or target narrower, more senior roles to win H‑1B slots.
– Higher compliance costs and more detailed filings, with greater risk of Requests for Evidence (RFEs).
– Continued requirement to file Form I-129 Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker, likely with more wage and duty detail.
– For green cards, employers typically file Form I-140 Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker; under the new agenda, cases tied to lower salary bands may face more hurdles.
Family and spouse impacts:
– The administration previously targeted work authorization for some H‑4 spouses; that question could return.
– Spouses who need to renew employment cards should consider filing Form I-765 Application for Employment Authorization early.
– Those changing or extending H‑4 status inside the U.S. use Form I-539 Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status.
Student impacts:
– Shorter visa validity, tighter academic checks, and less room to stay after graduation are possible.
– If OPT rules tighten or student time is cut, many will struggle to reach an H‑1B filing season.
– Most consular applicants complete the DS-160 Online Nonimmigrant Visa Application; more interviews and document checks would add wait times and uncertainty.
Business groups worry about a talent squeeze. The wage‑first model favors big firms that can bid up pay, leaving small and mid‑sized companies out. Universities and hospitals warn of staffing gaps in labs and clinics that rely on specialists who may not sit in top wage bands. India’s export‑led IT sector could see fewer onsite roles, threatening remittance flows and career ladders built around U.S. client work. VisaVerge.com reports many Indian service firms are already planning more offshore delivery and remote‑first teams to keep projects on track if U.S. hiring slows.
Timeline, Context, and What People Can Do Now
Status and expected timing:
– The draft rule for wage‑ranking has cleared a key review step.
– Final text is expected before year‑end.
– A staged rollout is likely in early 2026.
– Any student visa rules would likely follow a similar path, with a notice period and effective date that could hit before the next academic year.
– Legal challenges are almost certain, from universities, tech coalitions, and state chambers of commerce.
Historical context:
– Under President Trump’s first term, H‑1B denial rates climbed as high as 24% amid stricter reviews.
– Under President Biden, rates fell to the low single digits, and pathways for STEM graduates widened.
– The current agenda would swing the pendulum back, explicitly tilting toward higher wages and investor‑based residence.
Practical steps to reduce risk:
1. File early where possible
– H‑1B workers should plan extensions and amendments with Form I-129 Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker.
– Students and dependents should line up changes or extensions with Form I-539 Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status.
2. Keep pay and duties aligned
– Under wage‑based ranking and stricter reviews, job titles, duties, and wages must match labor condition filings. Employers should audit roles now.
3. Protect work authorization
– H‑4 spouses should renew employment cards early with Form I-765 Application for Employment Authorization.
4. Advance green card stages sooner
– Start permanent residence processes earlier where possible. Employers can pursue Form I-140 Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker when appropriate.
Arguments For and Against
Supporters say:
– The overhaul will raise wages, reduce abuse, and ensure visas fill roles that are hardest to staff.
– The Gold Card could bring capital and jobs, with investor immigrants starting companies and hiring locally.
– A wage‑first model will reward genuine skill, not filing volume.
Critics say:
– It will shut out promising young engineers and researchers before they can grow into higher‑paid roles.
– Small firms and rural hospitals will lose out to big‑city giants that can pay top dollar, widening regional gaps.
– India may see fewer onsite H‑1B roles, weakening a decades‑long model of client delivery—though remote work and offshore expansion might partially offset losses.
– Many point to the historical pattern of immigrants founding major companies after arriving as students or junior hires.
The geopolitical angle matters: India’s “soft exports” of engineers and students have tied the two economies together for a generation. A clampdown could push more of that flow to Canada and other points‑based systems that offer clearer paths to residence.
Resources and Next Steps
For official background on the current program, review the USCIS overview: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations.
As rules change, applicants should:
– Follow agency updates closely.
– Check form instructions carefully—small mistakes can cause big delays.
– Watch the final rule text, court challenges, and any student policy shifts.
None of these changes are final until published, but the direction is clear: a move to favor top‑paid jobs and deep pockets over broad access. If enacted, that approach would reshape who gets a chance to build a life in the United States—and how Indian nationals plan their careers, families, and studies around U.S. opportunities. In the months ahead, the window to file under current rules may be the most important deadline for many.
This Article in a Nutshell
The administration aims to overhaul H-1B allocation and student visa rules by prioritizing high-wage, high-skill applicants and proposing investor-based residency through a $5 million “Gold Card.” A wage-based H-1B selection would replace the lottery, privileging senior, higher-paid roles and disadvantaging entry-level and mid-career positions common among Indian IT and STEM workers, who receive over 70% of H-1B approvals. Draft regulations cleared OIRA in August, with final rules expected by year-end and phased implementation likely in early 2026. Consequences include upward pressure on wages, higher compliance costs, potential limits on H-4 spouse work authorization, and a narrower F-1 to H-1B pipeline if student rules and OPT are tightened. Supporters say the changes raise wages and attract elite talent; critics warn of workforce gaps, higher costs for small employers, and talent migration to other countries. Stakeholders should file early, align job duties and pay with filings, renew dependent authorizations promptly, and accelerate green-card steps where possible.
