(UNITED STATES) The Trump administration is moving to rewrite how the United States 🇺🇸 admits high-skilled workers, with an overhaul of the H-1B visa and employment-based green card system that would end the current H-1B lottery, raise required wages, and set up a new “gold card” track for top earners. The White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs cleared the shift on August 13, 2025, allowing the Department of Homeland Security to publish a rule that replaces random selection with a wage- and skill-based process as soon as this fall. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on August 26, 2025, that the administration will also press ahead with a redesign of the employment-based green card, including a proposed gold card aimed at people with advanced skills and high salaries. Indians—who make up the largest share of H-1B workers—stand to gain if they are highly paid, but many early-career professionals could see doors close.
What the change means for the H-1B process
Under the plan, the next filing season, expected for FY2026, would no longer rely on chance. Employers will submit H-1B registrations that list wage levels and job details, and the government will rank entries by pay, advanced U.S. degrees, and specialized skills.
Officials and supporters say this pushes the program toward a merit-first approach after years of criticism that the lottery favored speed and luck. Senior advisor Stephen Miller has framed the shift as part of a wider trade and diplomacy strategy that ties skilled immigration to U.S. economic and security goals, with India at the center due to its large H-1B talent pool and tech ties with American firms.
Key selection factors (proposed)
- Wages offered: Higher pay gets priority.
- Advanced U.S. degrees: A U.S. master’s or higher scores better.
- Specialized skills: Advanced tech and rare expertise move applicants up.
Wage floors and occupational impact
The most immediate jolt is to pay scales. The administration plans to lift prevailing wage requirements across many specialty roles, including software jobs.
- Internal modeling shared with industry groups describes a raise from roughly $85,000 to $130,000 for common developer roles.
- Similar increases are expected across other STEM fields.
By tying selection to higher pay and lifting wage floors simultaneously, the system would favor senior engineers, data scientists, AI specialists, and researchers, while pushing out many entry-level and non-tech jobs. Education and healthcare roles that have used H-1B in limited ways may struggle to qualify if pay ranks too low compared with tech salaries.
Important: Raising both the selection priority for pay and the wage floors affects selection odds and ongoing compliance. Employers must show they are paying above new levels to support petitions and extensions.
Green card redesign: the “gold card”
Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the administration is preparing a parallel redesign of the employment-based green card, including a new “gold card” tailored to “the best people”—highly paid, highly skilled workers who can show large impact.
- The gold card would be a fast track for top earners, advanced-degree holders, or those with demonstrated high impact.
- Officials have not set final thresholds, but the framing points to an earnings-first model, similar to systems in Canada 🇨🇦 and Australia.
The Department of Commerce and DHS aim to finalize a proposal by late 2025, with rapid rollout intended after the H-1B changes land.
Reactions: supporters vs critics
Supporters:
– Argue the current system admits too many workers at pay levels below U.S. averages.
– Say the new model will protect local workers and attract the “best and brightest.”
– See higher wages, advanced U.S. degrees, and proven specialized skills as better matching the modern economy.
Critics:
– Warn the plan will squeeze out recent graduates and reduce geographic diversity.
– Point to harms in sectors with lower wages but vital need—rural hospitals, public schools, community employers.
– Say startups, universities, and community-based organizations cannot compete with big tech on salary offers.
Impact on Indian nationals and international students
For Indian nationals:
– Indians are the largest H-1B group and dominate tech roles; senior engineers at well-paying platforms will likely benefit.
– Early-career Indians with decent—but not premium—offers could be pushed aside by higher-paid candidates.
– Smaller IT services firms and startups may lose ground if they cannot match top pay.
For international students:
– The common path—F-1 studies → OPT/STEM OPT → H-1B lottery—faces a new reality where wages matter more than sheer degree completion.
– Students may need higher-paying offers or additional U.S. advanced degrees to remain competitive.
– Many will target internships, thesis work, and specialties (AI, cybersecurity, chip design, biotech) to boost market pay.
Employers: practical steps and strategic choices
Employers are already planning. Company counsel and HR teams are:
- Reviewing offers to see which roles can meet higher wage levels.
- Considering internal pay adjustments for critical hires.
- Exploring alternative visa pathways (L-1 intra-company transfers, O-1 for extraordinary ability).
Smaller employers, universities, hospitals, and startups may:
– Reassign roles, shift work locations, or train U.S. graduates.
– Focus on O-1 or other classifications if they cannot raise salaries.
– Document advanced skills and research to compete on the skill factor.
Recommended preparatory actions for employers:
1. Audit pay ranges now — flag roles that can meet higher H-1B wages and those that cannot.
2. Prioritize job design — emphasize specialized duties and hard-to-find skills.
3. Consider alternatives — map roles for L-1, O-1, or internal transfers.
4. Engage counsel early — build timelines for quick filings once rules are final.
5. Monitor official updates — track postings, comment deadlines, and final texts.
Family and community consequences
Families face potential status shocks. New rules and stricter USCIS actions could increase risk for dependents, especially:
- Children nearing age 21, who can lose dependent status if a parent’s status lapses.
- Households reliant on H-1B income that may see sudden eligibility changes.
Legal groups advise families to:
– Review timelines, passports, I-94 records, and school documents.
– Consult counsel and prepare backup plans (travel, study, or other visas).
Communities that depend on international teachers, nurses, and therapists could struggle if H-1B access narrows for non-tech roles.
Timeline, rulemaking, and legal risks
The rule has cleared final White House review and is expected to be published, triggering:
- A public comment period, then DHS finalizing outlines for FY2026.
- A Commerce–DHS proposal for the gold card by late 2025.
Timing goals:
– Agencies aim to have the new H-1B ranking in place for FY2026, requiring a swift comment and finalization process.
– The gold card track is to follow shortly, with proposals by late 2025.
Legal challenges are likely, particularly around:
– Wage-setting methods
– Exclusion of certain occupations
– Whether agencies followed proper procedures and statutory authority
Even with court fights likely, companies and workers are advised to prepare as if rules will take effect as scheduled.
Practical scenarios (examples)
- New software engineer with $95,000 offer in a major city: Likely below the proposed selection/pay floor and at risk of not being selected.
- Senior data scientist with $175,000 and a U.S. master’s: Matches wage and degree factors and should rank high.
- Rural hospital hiring a physical therapist at moderate salary: May struggle to compete with higher-paid tech roles despite local need.
Guidance for applicants, students, and employers
Applicants and employers should rely on official sources and prepare:
- Track the USCIS H-1B page for authoritative updates: USCIS: H-1B Specialty Occupations
- Employers: lock in offers, audit pay bands, document specialized duties.
- Students: pursue internships, niche degrees, or advanced degrees that can boost pay and skill signals.
- Families: organize documents and consult immigration counsel about timing and backup plans.
What to watch next
- H-1B notice to hit the public docket — this will start the countdown for comments, revisions, and final text.
- Gold card details previewed by DHS and Commerce before year-end, showing pay levels, degree requirements, and treatment of families/backlogs.
- Industry comment flood: tech/business groups seeking flexibility; universities asking carve-outs; healthcare pushing for critical-staff protections; worker advocates calling for oversight.
Two key takeaways:
– The H-1B visa is poised to become a pay-and-skill race, not a lottery.
– The green card system is likely to gain a new lane — the gold card — for top-tier talent.
Those who move early — by raising offers, sharpening job duties, pursuing advanced U.S. degrees, and documenting specialized skills — will be best positioned when the FY2026 window opens. Those who wait may find the door narrower than before.
This Article in a Nutshell
OIRA cleared a rule on August 13, 2025, to end the H-1B lottery and rank applications by wage, U.S. advanced degrees, and specialized skills, while raising prevailing wages. Commerce plans a fast-track “gold card” for high earners. The changes favor senior, well-paid tech workers and could limit entry-level and non-tech roles; employers and applicants should audit pay and prepare alternatives.
