Trump Administration Shrinks US Immigrant Labor Force by Over 1 Million in 2025

(UNITED STATES) The United States 🇺🇸 is seeing a fast and sharp immigrant population decline in 2025, and it is already reshaping the job market. As of early September, preliminary data show more than 1 million fewer immigrants living and working in the country compared to the start of the year, reversing several years of growth and cutting into the immigrant labor force that has long supported key industries.

In January 2025, the foreign-born population hit a record 53.3 million (about 15.8% of the total). By June, it fell to 51.9 million, a drop of more than 1.4 million people in just six months—the first fall of this size since the 1960s. The Trump administration links the change to its enforcement push; critics say the scale and speed carry high economic and humanitarian costs.

At work, the change is visible. Immigrants made up 19.6% of all U.S. workers in January 2025—about 31.7 million people. By June, that share slipped to 19%, with more than 750,000 fewer immigrant workers compared to January. Some analysts, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for midyear, report even steeper losses—up to 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the United States by July compared with January—deepening concern that the immigrant labor force is shrinking faster than employers can adjust.

Economists who track monthly payrolls point to a slowdown: from about 123,000 average monthly job gains earlier in 2025 to around 35,000 between May and July, a sign that fewer available workers may be weighing on hiring.

Where the decline is concentrated

The decline is not spread evenly. The most pronounced drop is among unauthorized immigrants, who face stepped-up enforcement, more frequent detention and removal, and fewer paths to protection. That is pulling workers out of sectors that rely on them:

• Agriculture: missed crop-harvesting windows at the start of summer.
• Construction: residential projects in fast-growing metros delayed or paused.
• Healthcare and elder care: frontline roles in hospitals and home care that already struggle to fill shifts.

For many employers—especially small businesses—there is little slack. Responses include:

• Paying more to recruit
• Training replacements who then leave
• Cutting hours and contracts because workers are not available

Policy changes overview

Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has moved quickly on immigration. Within the first 100 days, the administration issued at least 181 executive actions focused on enforcement, removals, and cutting back humanitarian relief.

Key policy moves include:

• Orders to “marshal all available resources” for border control and expand the border wall.
• Deployment of more personnel along the southern border.
• Pressure on cities and states to cooperate with federal enforcement, increasing detentions away from the border, including workplace and neighborhood arrests.
• Suspension of refugee admissions and rollbacks of Biden-era asylum protections.
• Calls to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that shields nearly 700,000 people from countries hit by conflict or disaster.

Work-authorization policies are shifting as well:

• Expanded use of E-Verify, the federal system that checks worker eligibility.
• Discussions about narrowing or eliminating some visa categories.

Some actions face court challenges. As of April 2025, at least one such order was temporarily blocked, while other suits wind through the courts, creating uncertainty for families and employers.

Not all trend lines start in 2025. In June 2024, the Biden administration had announced new restrictions on asylum applications that cut new arrivals at the southern border. Those steps set the stage for fewer new entrants even before the shift in administration. Still, the sharp break in 2025 stands out because of the pace and scope of removals, rollbacks of protections, and the signal that unauthorized workers face higher risks.

Economic outlook and long-term concerns

Economists warn the long-term effects could be serious. Points to note:

• Pia Orrenius (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) notes immigrants have historically accounted for at least half of U.S. job growth.
• Oxford Economics projects net immigration will stay far below recent levels—roughly 500,000 annually through at least 2028.

If those projections hold:

• Tight labor markets may persist even as the economy cools.
• Employers may face a longer period of tough hiring, uneven hours, and higher wages to compete for fewer applicants.

Practical effects across sectors:

• Agriculture: missed picking windows lower yields and can ruin perishable crops.
• Construction: shortages delay projects and raise costs, feeding into higher rents and home prices.
• Healthcare: thin staffing fuels burnout and longer wait times, especially in elder care and home health.
• Restaurants and hotels: reduced hours, simplified menus, and consolidated housekeeping.

For consumers, effects often appear as higher prices, fewer available services, or longer lines.

Labor market and human impact

On the ground, the human side is stark:

• Parents fear taking children to parks or buses because a traffic stop could lead to detention.
• TPS holders who built lives over decades worry about losing status.
• Young adults who grew up in the U.S. await court rulings determining whether they can keep working.

Employers’ experiences differ by size:

• Large firms can reassign workers and absorb legal costs.
• Small businesses often cannot; losing half a crew mid-season can force client losses and layoffs.

Labor market patterns match these stories:

• Average monthly payroll gains fell from 123,000 in spring 2025 to 35,000 in late spring/early summer.
• With fewer workers, job openings remain high and vacancies persist, which tends to raise wages but can reduce total hours worked and output.

Policy mechanics that drive disruption:

• Expanded E-Verify checks → hiring delays and tentative offers that fall through.
• Increased interior enforcement → workers avoid public spaces or skip work.
• Narrowed border protections → fewer seasonal and entry-level workers entering the pipeline.

Legal uncertainty compounds planning problems. Court blocks and partial stays can change timelines overnight, leaving employers and families in a stop-and-go system that raises costs and fear.

“Losing that engine so quickly is a huge impact on the ability to create jobs.” — Pia Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (context: immigrants’ historical role in job growth)

Political debate and broader implications

Positions are sharply divided:

• Supporters of tougher enforcement argue it restores control, reduces exploitation in the shadow economy, and encourages hiring of U.S.-born workers. They cite wage gains in some low-wage industries.
• Business groups say the drop in available workers is too steep and too sudden, hurting output and service quality.
• Economists warn lower immigration will increase the dependency ratio as the population ages, pressuring Social Security and healthcare systems.
• Analysts note that limits on talent flows can slow innovation, the creation of firms, and patent activity.

For workers with lawful status, the effects vary:

• Some may receive faster promotions or higher pay as employers compete for staff.
• Others face heavier workloads, burnout, or continued understaffing in seasonal regions despite bonuses.

Employers are experimenting with:

• New shift patterns
• Shared hiring pools
• More training for first-time workers

Yet in many cases, these adjustments do not fully substitute for missing labor.

Government messaging, data, and local impacts

The administration’s message: enforcement first. Orders call for broader cooperation with federal removals, more detention capacity, and increased border resources. Humanitarian programs have been narrowed or paused.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the 2025 policy mix—stepped-up deportations, tighter asylum rules, and pressure on work authorization—has made the decline faster than any recent decades, directly affecting workforce size and composition by midyear.

For the latest official updates, the Department of Homeland Security lists policy announcements and enforcement summaries on its website: Department of Homeland Security.

Local effects can be rapid:

• When a removal surge hits a metro area, workers may skip shifts or relocate.
• Local governments and school districts may see lower attendance, missed clinic appointments, and crowded legal aid offices within days.

Financial costs to families accumulate quickly:

• Losing work authorization → loss of income and employer health insurance.
• Missed renewals or denials can trigger job loss even for long-term residents.
• Mixed-status families face higher eviction and debt risks.
• Community groups report increased demand for rent, childcare, and transportation assistance.

Legal fights, data signals, and what comes next

Court outcomes will shape much of late 2025:

• Several executive orders face legal challenges.
• At least one order tied to birthright citizenship is on hold; other suits challenge asylum limits, parole changes, and TPS approaches.

Possible scenarios:

1. Courts block major actions → parts of the immigrant labor force could stabilize temporarily.
2. Courts uphold most actions → further declines in the foreign-born population likely into 2026.

Analysts also note that fewer new arrivals in 2024 and early 2025 mean growth will remain weaker even if enforcement eases.

Data recap (baseline figures):

• January 2025: 53.3 million foreign-born residents; 31.7 million immigrant workers; 19.6% of workforce.
• June 2025: 51.9 million foreign-born residents; roughly 30.95 million immigrant workers; 19% of workforce.
• Payroll gains fell from 123,000 a month earlier in 2025 to 35,000 in late spring/early summer.
• One federal snapshot reported a 2.2 million overall immigrant drop by July compared with January.

These are not marginal shifts—they represent a major workforce reset in months.

Practical steps for those affected

For people and organizations navigating the uncertainty:

1. Check current status and expiration dates early; keep copies of all records.
2. Talk to a qualified immigration attorney or accredited representative if facing removal, status problems, or work-authorization issues.
3. Employers should:
   • Review Form I-9 and E-Verify procedures with counsel.
   • Train hiring staff on anti-discrimination rules.
   • Build contingency plans for sudden labor gaps.
4. Local governments and nonprofits can prepare for increased demand for legal clinics, food banks, and housing support.

Final observations

Advocacy groups warn the humanitarian costs will grow if removals continue. They highlight Dreamers, TPS holders, and recent asylum seekers who have built lives in the U.S. and now face status loss, job cuts, and possible deportation.

Business leaders, particularly in agriculture, construction, and healthcare, call for more predictable, lawful channels to fill roles and keep services running. Economists argue steady immigration is needed to support growth and public finances in an aging society.

The political calendar matters: Congressional action—whether it emphasizes border security, expands legal pathways, or restores protections—will influence how quickly the immigrant labor force stabilizes. If legislation stalls, executive actions and court rulings will continue to set the pace.

For now, the core story is clear: the United States entered 2025 with record-high foreign-born numbers and a strong immigrant presence in the workforce. By midyear, that trend flipped. The immigrant population decline is fast, deep, and closely tied to policy choices. Supporters argue enforcement is necessary; critics warn the economic and humanitarian costs are high. Both sides agree the effects are real and immediate.

Key numbers to remember:

The immediate question is whether the decline continues into fall and winter. If enforcement remains high and relief programs remain paused or narrowed, more departures and fewer arrivals are likely. If courts slow implementation or Congress acts, some parts of the system could pause and stabilize.

Planning for tight labor conditions makes sense for employers. Families at risk should seek legal advice sooner rather than later. Local leaders should prepare to cushion communities—keeping classrooms open, healthcare staffed, and basic services steady—while the country determines its immigration course in the months ahead.