(CANADA) Canada’s provinces have sharply slowed their immigration intake in 2025 after the federal government cut the number of people they can nominate for permanent residency by roughly half, forcing pauses in provincial nominee program draws, sudden policy pivots, and long waits for applicants. The reductions, announced by Immigration Minister Marc Miller in October 2024, slashed national provincial nominee program targets from 110,000 in 2024 to 55,000 in 2025, a move Ottawa says is meant to ease pressure on housing and public services and to focus on people already in the country on temporary status.
The scale of the immigration cuts has rippled quickly through provincial systems. Alberta’s 2025 allocation fell to 4,875 from 9,750 a year earlier. British Columbia dropped to 4,000 from 8,000. Manitoba, which has kept drawing despite the uncertainty, fell to 4,750 from 9,540. New Brunswick moved to 2,750 from 5,500. Saskatchewan was reduced to 3,625 from 8,000. The Northwest Territories, with one of the smallest quotas, fell to 150 from 300, and Yukon decreased to 215 from 430. Several provincial governments say the 2025 allocations leave employers without the workers they need, even as Ottawa insists provinces prioritize nominees who already live and work in Canada.
Provincial leaders have not hidden their frustration.
“We are disappointed with the federal government’s decision to reduce our allocation. Manitoba needs more newcomers to fill critical labour gaps,” said Jon Reyes, Manitoba’s Minister of Labour and Immigration.
Other provinces have echoed the concern in public statements, arguing their economies require more room to nominate people under the Provincial nominee program than the 2025 allocations allow. That tension has translated into inertia: aside from Manitoba, most provinces have not held any provincial nominee program draws so far this year, citing the reduced quotas and continuing uncertainty about how to spread fewer nominations across sectors and regions.
Ottawa’s direction also reaches into who gets picked. The federal government has mandated that provinces give 75% of their nominations to candidates already in Canada, such as international graduates and foreign workers with valid permits. This aligns with a broader federal plan that more than 40% of all permanent resident admissions in 2025 will come from people already in the country on temporary status. The message from the center is clear: slow new arrivals while offering permanent residency to those who have studied or worked in Canada and are already settled in communities.
Some programs have been paused or retooled outright. The Northwest Territories postponed reopening its nominee program, which had planned to accept 100 applications by January 16, 2025, and has not set a fresh timeline. New Brunswick has said it will adjust its economic immigration programs to reflect the federal cuts. Nova Scotia has tightened its focus, prioritizing applicants already living and working in the province, with a spotlight on healthcare and construction, and cautioning that people outside Canada in non-priority fields will face long odds in 2025. That approach reflects Ottawa’s emphasis on in-Canada candidates but has left many qualified applicants abroad unable to move forward this year.
For candidates and employers, the result is a near standstill. Nova Scotia put it bluntly in a public notice:
“We are receiving more applications than we can approve in 2025. Not all eligible applications will be processed. Meeting program criteria does not guarantee approval.”
The statement captures the human side of the policy swing: people who spent months meeting requirements now find there is not enough space to process their files, even if they did everything asked. Applicants in trucking, some science fields, and clean energy are among the few exceptions being considered in some places, but the broader message from provinces is to expect fewer invitations and longer waits.
At the federal level, selection under the Express Entry system has tilted harder toward the Canadian Experience Class and enhanced provincial nominee program streams, all designed to channel permanent residency to people with recent Canadian work or study experience. Ottawa created an “In-Canada Focus” category with 82,890 admissions budgeted for 2025. Through the year to date, there have been six Canadian Experience Class draws issuing 15,850 invitations, eleven PNP draws issuing 5,495 invitations, and three French-language proficiency draws issuing 18,500 invitations. While those categories remain active, provinces say the cut to their own allocations reduces their ability to respond to local labour shortages in real time, especially in smaller communities that rely more on targeted nominations than national draws.
The provinces’ 2025 allocations—sliced across all regions—are the numbers most policymakers are stuck working with for now. Alberta’s 4,875 cap must cover its booming construction, healthcare, and energy needs. British Columbia’s 4,000 ceiling constrains a province that has leaned on its tech and healthcare sectors to grow. Manitoba’s 4,750 must stretch across agriculture, manufacturing, and services, the very sectors officials say cannot find enough workers. New Brunswick’s 2,750 tightens options in a province already wrestling with an aging workforce. Saskatchewan’s 3,625 is less than half of last year’s level, narrowing the path for skilled trades and agri-food roles. The Northwest Territories’ 150 and Yukon’s 215 leave the North with small margins to recruit and retain essential workers.
For many applicants, the ground has shifted under their feet. Those outside Canada who do not work in priority sectors have seen processing slow or stop, with provinces focusing instead on in-Canada applicants who can move into permanent roles quickly. Nova Scotia has been explicit in putting local healthcare and construction first. Other provinces have delivered similar messages quietly by limiting which occupational streams they open and when, or by pausing draws entirely while they decide how to ration nominations through the rest of the year. Employers, in turn, report longer timelines to fill jobs, especially in smaller cities and rural areas where candidate pools are thin.
Within provinces, officials are recalibrating operational details, often on short notice. New Brunswick’s pledge to adjust its economic programs signals further changes to eligibility and timing. The Northwest Territories’ postponed intake—originally slated to accept 100 applications by January 16—illustrates how quickly plans have had to change since the federal announcement. Even where draws continue, as in Manitoba, the room to nominate is tightly restricted. Manitoba’s continued activity has made it an outlier in 2025, but officials there have also warned that the smaller quota limits how much relief they can offer employers this year.
Ottawa has framed the policy as a necessary cooling period following a rapid population surge driven by temporary residents and record permanent resident admissions. The goal, the federal government says, is to alleviate housing strain and pressure on social services while giving provinces and cities time to catch up. It has also emphasized that offering permanent residency to international students and temporary foreign workers who are already in Canada can stabilize the labour market without adding to short-term population growth. To that end, the federal plan sets high numbers for in-Canada admissions under Express Entry categories while capping the overall provincial nominee program intake. The government maintains that the balance helps align immigration with current capacity.
Provinces counter that the shift is too abrupt and too blunt. Many nominated newcomers settle outside major metropolitan areas, where employers say they cannot fill jobs locally. Provinces also argue that their nominee programs are designed to meet specific community needs—from nursing homes in small towns to meatpacking plants and trucking fleets—needs not easily met by broad national categories. Their main ask to Ottawa has been to restore higher provincial quotas as soon as possible, or at least to provide a clearer timeline for when 2025 allocations might be revisited.
The uncertainty has prompted many people to rethink their plans. Some candidates are turning to federal Express Entry categories where draws continue, though the points cutoffs and category criteria narrow options. Others are staying in their current jobs in Canada longer, hoping a provincial nomination will come later in the year or in 2026. Outside Canada, applicants in non-priority fields are holding documents in place without clear timelines, a situation that has knock-on effects for families, employers, and communities that had expected new arrivals.
Even as 2025 remains tight, there are signs the picture could change next year. Provinces are pressing for higher numbers, and federal officials have signaled that targets could climb in 2026. The next Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 is expected by November 1, 2025, a date many in the sector view as a potential reset if Ottawa agrees to lift provincial caps. Until then, planning remains difficult. Provinces can open draws only if they are confident they will not overshoot their quotas. Employers cannot be sure when or whether a nomination stream will open for their industry. Applicants must decide whether to wait, try a different pathway, or look elsewhere.
The language from Nova Scotia captures how provinces are managing expectations in the meantime.
“We are receiving more applications than we can approve in 2025. Not all eligible applications will be processed. Meeting program criteria does not guarantee approval,” the Nova Scotia immigration office said.
That blunt warning is becoming common as governments post notices to discourage large volumes of new applications they cannot accept under the current 2025 allocations.
Statistics from federal draws show Ottawa’s priorities in practice. The six Canadian Experience Class rounds and three French-language proficiency draws have issued far more invitations than the eleven provincial nominee program rounds so far this year, underscoring the tilt toward in-Canada selection and French language ability. The “In-Canada Focus” category’s 82,890 admissions target further signals that temporary residents who have already integrated into workplaces and communities are the main path to permanent residency in 2025, at least until provincial quotas are revisited.
For prospective immigrants and employers trying to navigate the turmoil, the best guide remains official updates from provincial websites and federal notices that detail which streams are open and when draws may resume. The federal overview of the Provincial Nominee Program on IRCC’s website outlines the basic framework, but this year’s bottleneck is driven less by rules and more by the much tighter caps imposed by Ottawa. Provinces that used to run regular monthly draws in multiple streams now must ration limited invitations, often prioritizing candidates already employed locally and in sectors flagged as essential.
The whipsaw in 2025—dramatic immigration cuts and a pivot to in-Canada candidates—has left a gap between what provinces say their economies need and what they are allowed to do. Whether that gap narrows in 2026 depends on the federal plan due in the fall and on how quickly housing and services pressures ease. For now, applicants outside Canada in non-priority sectors face a year of slow processing or no movement at all, while many inside Canada wait to see if their work experience will translate into a nomination before provincial quotas run out. Provinces continue to press for more room, even as they follow Ottawa’s direction to pick local workers first.
In the months ahead, watch for signals from provinces that paused their programs to quietly reopen narrow streams or small draws as they portion out the year’s remaining nomination spaces. Keep an eye, too, on whether the federal government expands the number of provincial nominee program invitations inside Express Entry later in the year to relieve pressure on provincial quotas at the margin. Until there is clarity on 2026 levels, however, the 2025 allocations will define the pace and shape of provincial immigration: fewer invitations, more focus on people already here, and far more uncertainty for those trying to make Canada home.
This Article in a Nutshell
In October 2024, Ottawa cut provincial nominee program targets from 110,000 to 55,000 for 2025, halving provincial allocations and prompting paused draws and program redesigns. Provinces received far smaller caps — for example Alberta 4,875 and British Columbia 4,000 — and were told to allocate 75% of nominations to candidates already in Canada. The federal shift prioritizes Express Entry, Canadian Experience Class and an In-Canada admissions focus; provinces warn the cuts constrain local labour markets. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, due November 1, 2025, could alter allocations, but 2025 remains constrained.
