U.S. Student Visa Arrivals Fall to Four-Year Low, Led by Asia Drop

(UNITED STATES) U.S. colleges are bracing for fewer arrivals after new data show US student visas have fallen to a four-year low, with the drop led by a steep Asia drop, especially from India and China. As of late September 2025, the slide follows a disrupted interview season, tighter screening, and a proposed rule that would end open-ended stays for F-1 and J-1 students. Together, these changes have pushed the international student pipeline to its weakest point since 2021, according to university advisers and consular trends.

In the first half of 2025, the United States issued about 89,000 F‑1 visas, a clear decline from recent years. The drop is sharpest from Asia. Indian issuances fell 44% year over year to about 14,700 in H1 2025, extending a decline that started in 2024. China also slipped, with a 24% year-over-year fall to just over 11,000.

While China’s level aligns more closely with 2022–2023 patterns, the two countries together have pulled down the overall count. In fiscal year 2024, Indian and Chinese students made up 42% of new international students, down from 49% the year before — signaling both diversification and fewer students from these key sources.

Interview pause and short-term effects

The timing has aggravated the impact. Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, U.S. consulates paused student visa interviews during the critical summer surge. Students normally fill interview slots in late spring and early summer to reach campus by August.

This pause, coupled with new social media screening and slim appointment supply in India, China, Nigeria, and Japan, left many students stuck. Some deferred, others shifted to later intake terms, and some gave up plans entirely.

Universities describe a fragile Fall 2025 cycle. Early projections point to a 30–40% decline in new international enrollment, which could mean a 15% drop overall when including continuing students. By one estimate, that could cost nearly $7 billion in revenue and more than 60,000 U.S. jobs tied to tuition, housing, food, research support, and local spending.

Colleges in the Midwest and Northeast—regions that rely heavily on foreign enrollment—say they are cutting marketing budgets elsewhere to shore up advising and compliance for those who do arrive.

Policy shift details

At the center of the policy churn is a Department of Homeland Security plan to replace “duration of status” with fixed admissions for F-1 and J-1 students. On August 28, 2025, DHS proposed admitting students for a set time tied to their program — no longer than four years plus 30 days after completion — ending the open-ended stay that has existed since 1991 for F students and 1993 for J exchange visitors.

Under the plan, students needing more time would have to apply for extensions with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

New limits proposed (highlights)

• English language study capped at 24 months
• Restrictions on program changes after arrival, including blocking graduate students from switching programs
• No lateral or reverse matriculation (students could not move sideways or to a lower degree level after completing one)
• Grace period shortened from 60 to 30 days after the program ends
• Mandatory extension filings for any stay beyond the initial term — including program extensions, school transfers, or OPT — using Form I-539, Application To Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status with USCIS

DHS says the change would bring stronger oversight and prevent indefinite stays. A department spokesperson said the rule aims to curb visa abuse, strengthen vetting, and cut taxpayer burdens linked to long, open-ended student stays. The department argues fixed terms will make it easier to check program progress and track those who fall out of status.

The proposal is open for public comment until September 29, 2025. Universities, NAFSA, and student groups are preparing detailed responses, urging adjustments to keep compliance workable while maintaining a welcoming stance.

Practical effects for students and campuses

For students, the practical effect would be tighter timelines and more paperwork. Today, a student who changes majors, adds a second degree, or needs more time typically works with the school’s international office under SEVIS rules.

Under the proposal, those steps could require a formal Form I-539 extension with USCIS, including fees, biometrics, and possible interviews. That adds cost and time, and it could invite delays that threaten a student’s status if decisions take months.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the fixed-term model would shift much of the flexibility now handled by school advisors onto a federal case-processing queue, making planning harder for both students and campuses.

“The fixed-term model would shift much of the flexibility now handled by school advisors onto a federal case-processing queue,” — VisaVerge.com analysis (summarized).

The wider context is a long-running debate inside DHS and the White House about visa overstays. The Trump administration first pushed to narrow “duration of status,” citing national security and data gaps. The current DHS proposal builds on that approach.

Supporters say the change will increase accountability and reduce misuse. Critics warn it could push students to other destinations that keep simpler rules, like Canada 🇨🇦, the U.K., or Australia, at a time when competition for talent is fierce. The White House has not issued a separate statement on the rule since it was posted, and the process continues through the normal regulatory steps under President Biden.

Enrollment and economic fallout

Colleges are already making short-term adjustments:

• Allowing late arrivals into the second half of fall term
• Moving start dates to winter or spring cohorts
• Adding deposit deferral options

Admissions teams report that families are asking basic questions: Will my child get an interview? How long will security checks take? What if the new rule takes effect during their degree? Without firm answers, conversion rates from admit to arrival are dropping.

The hardest hit programs and institutions:

• Indian graduate programs in computer science, engineering, and business — driving research budgets and local tech partnerships
• Chinese undergraduates — vital for tuition balance sheets at many state schools
• Community colleges with English language programs — which would be affected by the 24-month cap

Consequences include fewer graduate assistants in labs, fewer fee-paying master’s students who cross-subsidize undergraduate teaching, and potential budget cuts or intensified domestic recruitment.

Students also face day-to-day risks:

• Shorter grace periods (from 60 to 30 days) reduce time to move to OPT or depart after studies
• Planned switches (e.g., master’s to second master’s) or transfers may become harder or blocked
• Proposed ban on “lateral” moves would remove academic flexibility students use to adjust goals after arrival

Advisors worry about unintentional status violations as students parse new rules mid-degree.

Consular processing and appointment bottlenecks

The spring interview pause exposed a fragile system. Even a three-week break during peak demand created a backlog that some posts still have not cleared. Social media screening, while not new, appears to be applied more often for student applicants in some countries, adding days or weeks. Appointment supply remains tight in big cities.

If those frictions persist into late 2025 and early 2026, colleges may see another weak intake before any final rule even takes effect.

What students and schools can do now

Practical steps recommended by schools and advisors:

1. Book interviews as early as possible.
2. Keep documents and proof of funds organized and ready.
3. Allow buffers for security checks and possible additional screening.
4. Work early with the international office for any program changes or timeline issues.
5. If an extension may be needed, prepare for Form I-539 filings with USCIS well before current end dates.

The form and filing instructions are available on the official USCIS site: Form I-539, Application To Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status. Advisors also recommend following official guidance from the U.S. Department of State on student visas: Student Visa (F and M).

Public comment and possible changes

The public comment window (closes September 29, 2025) offers a chance to shape the final rule. Universities and advocacy groups are asking for:

• Waivers for students in longer STEM programs
• Retention of the 60-day grace period
• Continued ability for graduate students to change programs as academic plans evolve
• Fast, predictable USCIS processing for student extensions to prevent status gaps
• Better coordination between USCIS and SEVP so school-level reporting and federal filings align

Outlook and next milestones

In the near term, the visa pipeline will depend on two things:

• Appointment supply — if consulates restore full interview capacity through winter and spring, the steep first-half drop could soften by late 2025.
• Final rule flexibility — if the final rule adopts more flexible terms or longer default stays for certain degrees, schools may regain recruitment confidence.

If neither improves, the four-year low for US student visas could stretch into another cycle, deepening the Asia drop and forcing tough budget choices on campuses that have relied on international tuition for a decade or more.

For families weighing options, the advice is simple but strict: apply early, expect added screening, and build in time for delays. Keep proof of funds organized, save all school forms, and confirm any program change with the international office before taking action.

If the rule becomes final, students who need more time or plan changes will likely have to file Form I-539 well before their current end date. Missing those steps could have lasting effects, from loss of OPT to future visa denials.

The next milestone is the September 29, 2025 comment deadline. After that, DHS will review feedback and may revise the rule before publishing a final version, with implementation likely in 2026 or later. Meanwhile, colleges will keep tracking consular operations, approval numbers, and first-week attendance to gauge how deep this enrollment slide runs.

VisaVerge.com reports that universities are also exploring new recruiting markets to offset the Asia drop — Southeast Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa — though it will take time to replace the scale India and China once brought.

For now, the headline remains unchanged: US student visas are at a four-year low, driven by fewer issuances from Asia, a choppy interview season, and a proposed rule that would tighten stays. The next few months will show whether policymakers and consular posts can steady the flow — or whether another term of missed seats and lost revenue lies ahead.