January 2026 Visa Bulletin Prediction: Comprehensive Analysis & Forecasts
Data-driven predictions for Employment-Based (EB-1 to EB-5), Family-Sponsored (F1-F4), and Diversity Visa (DV-2026) categories based on November and December 2025 bulletin movement patterns.
FY2026 STATUTORY LIMITS
Annual Visa Allocation Numbers
FAMILY-SPONSORED
226,000
Per INA Section 201
EMPLOYMENT-BASED
140,000+
Minimum allocation
PER-COUNTRY LIMIT
7%
25,620 visas max
DIVERSITY VISA
~52,000
Reduced by NACARA/NDAA
Section 202 Per-Country Limit: 7% of combined family + employment preference visas = 25,620 visas per country. Dependent areas limited to 2% (7,320). Currently oversubscribed: China (mainland-born), India, Mexico, Philippines.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
JAN 2026
- EB-2 India Final Action: Advanced from 01APR13 to 15MAY13 (+44 days). January prediction: 01JUL13 (+47 days). Current backlog ~12.5 years.
- EB-2 China Final Action: Advanced from 01APR21 to 01JUN21 (+61 days). January prediction: 01AUG21 (+61 days). Current backlog ~4.5 years.
- EB-3 India Final Action: Advanced from 22AUG13 to 22SEP13 (+31 days). January prediction: 22OCT13 (+30 days). Tracking similar to EB-2 India.
- EB-1 China/India: Both advancing ~30 days/month. China: 22DEC22 → 22JAN23 → Feb prediction ~22FEB23. India: 15FEB22 → 15MAR22 → April prediction ~15APR22.
- Family-Based F2B Alert: Significant retrogression for ROW from 01FEB23 to 01DEC16 (over 6 years backward). F3/F4 Mexico remain stagnant at 2001 dates.
- Family-Based F1/F3/F4 Philippines: Extraordinary forward movement: F1 +6.8 years, F4 +1.8 years - suggests visa number availability surge.
- DV-2026 Cutoffs (Confirmed for January): Africa jumps to 35,000 (+17,500), Asia to 15,000 (+5,000), Europe to 8,500 (+750). Program ends Sep 30, 2026.
- EB-4 Religious Workers (SR) Alert: Category extended until January 30, 2026 (H.R. 5371). All SR applicants must be admitted into US by midnight Jan 29, 2026.
EB-2 Final Action Movement (Nov → Dec 2025)
🌍
REST OF WORLD
+62 days
01DEC23 → 01FEB24
🇨🇳
CHINA
+61 days
01APR21 → 01JUN21
🇮🇳
INDIA
+44 days
01APR13 → 15MAY13
🇲🇽
MEXICO
+62 days
01DEC23 → 01FEB24
🇵🇭
PHILIPPINES
+62 days
01DEC23 → 01FEB24
EMPLOYMENT-BASED FINAL ACTION DATES
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
80% CONFIDENCE
Final Action Dates Predictions
EB-1: PRIORITY WORKERS
FIRST PREFERENCE | 28.6% of EB visas
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
| China-mainland born | 22DEC22 | 22JAN23 | +31 days | 22FEB23 | 85% |
| India | 15FEB22 | 15MAR22 | +28 days | 15APR22 | 85% |
| Mexico | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
| Philippines | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
EB-1 includes: EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability), EB-1B (Outstanding Professors/Researchers), EB-1C (Multinational Managers/Executives)
EB-2: ADVANCED DEGREE / EXCEPTIONAL ABILITY
SECOND PREFERENCE | 28.6% of EB visas
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 01DEC23 | 01FEB24 | +62 days | 01APR24 | 80% |
| China-mainland born | 01APR21 | 01JUN21 | +61 days | 01AUG21 | 80% |
| India | 01APR13 | 15MAY13 | +44 days | 01JUL13 | 75% |
| Mexico | 01DEC23 | 01FEB24 | +62 days | 01APR24 | 80% |
| Philippines | 01DEC23 | 01FEB24 | +62 days | 01APR24 | 80% |
EB-2 includes: PERM Labor Certification route and National Interest Waiver (NIW). India backlog is approximately 12+ years.
EB-3: SKILLED WORKERS & PROFESSIONALS
THIRD PREFERENCE | 28.6% of EB visas
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 01APR23 | 15APR23 | +14 days | 01MAY23 | 85% |
| China-mainland born | 01MAR21 | 01APR21 | +31 days | 01MAY21 | 80% |
| India | 22AUG13 | 22SEP13 | +31 days | 22OCT13 | 75% |
| Mexico | 01APR23 | 15APR23 | +14 days | 01MAY23 | 85% |
| Philippines | 01APR23 | 15APR23 | +14 days | 01MAY23 | 85% |
EB-3: OTHER WORKERS (EW)
THIRD PREFERENCE - EW | Max 10,000/year (reduced to ~5,000 by NACARA)
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 15JUL21 | 01AUG21 | +17 days | 15AUG21 | 80% |
| China-mainland born | 01DEC17 | 08DEC17 | +7 days | 15DEC17 | 70% |
| India | 22AUG13 | 22SEP13 | +31 days | 22OCT13 | 75% |
| Mexico | 15JUL21 | 01AUG21 | +17 days | 15AUG21 | 80% |
| Philippines | 15JUL21 | 01AUG21 | +17 days | 15AUG21 | 80% |
Note: For FY2026, NACARA reduction is limited to approximately 150 visas (per bulletin).
EB-4: CERTAIN SPECIAL IMMIGRANTS
FOURTH PREFERENCE | 7.1% of EB visas
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Countries | 01JUL20 | 01SEP20 | +62 days | 01NOV20 | 70% |
| Certain Religious Workers (SR) | Unavailable | 01SEP20 | Now Available | 01NOV20* | 50% |
CRITICAL: SR category extended until January 30, 2026 (H.R. 5371). No SR visas may be issued after midnight January 29, 2026. All applicants must be admitted into the US by this date.
EB-5: IMMIGRANT INVESTORS
FIFTH PREFERENCE | 7.1% of EB visas
| Category / Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unreserved - All Chargeability | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
| Unreserved - China | 08DEC15 | 15JUL16 | +219 days | 01FEB17 | 65% |
| Unreserved - India | 01FEB21 | 01JUL21 | +150 days | 01DEC21 | 65% |
| Unreserved - Mexico | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
| Unreserved - Philippines | Current | Current | No Change | Current | 95% |
| Set Aside: Rural (20%) | Current | Current | All Countries | Current | 95% |
| Set Aside: High Unemployment (10%) | Current | Current | All Countries | Current | 95% |
| Set Aside: Infrastructure (2%) | Current | Current | All Countries | Current | 95% |
EB-5 Set-Asides (per RIA): 32% of EB-5 visas are reserved: 20% Rural, 10% High Unemployment, 2% Infrastructure. These remain Current for all countries.
EMPLOYMENT-BASED DATES FOR FILING
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
70% CONFIDENCE
Dates for Filing Applications Predictions
IMPORTANT NOTE
USCIS determines monthly whether applicants can use the "Dates for Filing" chart instead of "Final Action Dates" for adjustment of status applications. Check www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo each month for the applicable chart.
EB DATES FOR FILING - ALL CATEGORIES
FOR I-485 FILING ELIGIBILITY
| Category | Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | All Chargeability | Current | Current | No Change | Current |
| China | 15MAY23 | 15MAY23 | No Change | 15MAY23 | |
| India | 15APR23 | 15APR23 | No Change | 15APR23 | |
| EB-2 | All Chargeability | Current | 15JUL24 | Retrogressed | 15JUL24 |
| China | 01DEC21 | 01DEC21 | No Change | 01DEC21 | |
| India | 01DEC13 | 01DEC13 | No Change | 01DEC13 | |
| EB-3 | All Chargeability | 01JUL23 | 01JUL23 | No Change | 01JUL23 |
| China | 01JAN22 | 01JAN22 | No Change | 01JAN22 | |
| India | 15AUG14 | 15AUG14 | No Change | 15AUG14 | |
| Other Workers | All Chargeability | 01DEC21 | 01DEC21 | No Change | 01DEC21 |
| China | 01OCT18 | 01OCT18 | No Change | 01OCT18 | |
| India | 15AUG14 | 15AUG14 | No Change | 15AUG14 | |
| EB-4 | All Countries | 15FEB21 | 15FEB21 | No Change | 15MAR21 |
| EB-5 Unreserved | China | 01JUL16 | 22JUL16 | +21 days | 15AUG16 |
| India | 01APR22 | 01APR22 | No Change | 01APR22 |
FAMILY-SPONSORED FINAL ACTION DATES
FAMILY-SPONSORED PREFERENCES
50-65% CONFIDENCE
Final Action Dates Predictions
FY2026 FAMILY-SPONSORED VISA ALLOCATION (226,000 TOTAL)
F1 - UNMARRIED CHILDREN
23,400
+ unused F4
F2 - SPOUSES/CHILDREN
114,200
F2A: 77% | F2B: 23%
F3 - MARRIED CHILDREN
23,400
+ unused F1/F2
F4 - SIBLINGS
65,000
+ unused F1-F3
F2A Special Rule: 75% of F2A numbers are exempt from per-country limits. For December, exempt dates are earlier than 01FEB23; subject to limit dates are 01FEB23-01FEB24 (except Mexico - all exempt).
SIGNIFICANT RETROGRESSION ALERT
Multiple family-based categories experienced significant changes from November to December 2025. F2B ROW retrogressed over 6 years (01FEB23 → 01DEC16). However, F1 Philippines jumped forward 6.8 years and F4 Philippines moved forward 1.8 years, suggesting visa number rebalancing. Predictions for January carry higher uncertainty due to this volatility.
F1: UNMARRIED SONS/DAUGHTERS OF U.S. CITIZENS
FIRST PREFERENCE | 23,400 visas/year
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 08NOV16 | 08NOV16 | No Change | 15NOV16 | 65% |
| China-mainland born | 08NOV16 | 08NOV16 | No Change | 15NOV16 | 65% |
| India | 08NOV16 | 08NOV16 | No Change | 15NOV16 | 65% |
| Mexico | 22NOV05 | 01MAR06 | +99 days | 08JUN06 | 70% |
| Philippines | 22MAR06 | 22JAN13 | +2,497 days (~6.8 yrs) | 01MAR13 | 45% |
F1 Note: Philippines showed an extraordinary jump of nearly 7 years in December. This unusual movement suggests visa number availability or data correction. January prediction carries high uncertainty.
F2A: SPOUSES & CHILDREN OF PERMANENT RESIDENTS
SECOND PREFERENCE | 77% of F2 (75% exempt from per-country limit)
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 01FEB24 | 01FEB24 | No Change | 01MAR24 | 70% |
| China-mainland born | 01FEB24 | 01FEB24 | No Change | 01MAR24 | 70% |
| India | 01FEB24 | 01FEB24 | No Change | 01MAR24 | 70% |
| Mexico | 01FEB23 | 01FEB23 | No Change | 01MAR23 | 70% |
| Philippines | 01FEB24 | 01FEB24 | No Change | 01MAR24 | 70% |
F2A Exempt/Subject Notes: Numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit authorized for priority dates earlier than 01FEB23. Numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit for dates 01FEB23 to 01FEB24 (except Mexico - all exempt).
F2B: UNMARRIED ADULT SONS/DAUGHTERS OF PERM. RESIDENTS
SECOND PREFERENCE | 23% of F2
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 01FEB23 | 01DEC16 | -2253 days (~6.2 yrs) | 01JAN17 | 55% |
| China-mainland born | 01DEC16 | 01DEC16 | No Change | 01JAN17 | 65% |
| India | 01DEC16 | 01DEC16 | No Change | 01JAN17 | 65% |
| Mexico | 15DEC07 | 15MAY08 | +152 days | 15OCT08 | 60% |
| Philippines | 01OCT12 | 08OCT12 | +7 days | 15OCT12 | 70% |
RETROGRESSION ALERT: F2B "All Chargeability Areas" retrogressed over 6 years (01FEB23 → 01DEC16) from November to December. This significant backward movement affects applicants worldwide except the listed countries with separate dates.
F3: MARRIED SONS/DAUGHTERS OF U.S. CITIZENS
THIRD PREFERENCE | 23,400 visas/year
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 15DEC07 | 08SEP11 | +1,363 days (~3.7 yrs) | 08OCT11 | 60% |
| China-mainland born | 08SEP11 | 08SEP11 | No Change | 08OCT11 | 65% |
| India | 08SEP11 | 08SEP11 | No Change | 08OCT11 | 65% |
| Mexico | 01MAY01 | 01MAY01 | No Change | 01JUN01 | 65% |
| Philippines | 22SEP04 | 01NOV04 | +40 days | 15DEC04 | 65% |
F3 Note: All Chargeability Areas jumped nearly 4 years forward (aligning with China/India). Mexico has an extremely long backlog (~24 years). Philippines showed modest improvement of 40 days.
F4: BROTHERS/SISTERS OF ADULT U.S. CITIZENS
FOURTH PREFERENCE | 65,000 visas/year
| Country | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Movement | Jan 2026 Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargeability Areas | 08JAN08 | 08JAN08 | No Change | 08FEB08 | 65% |
| China-mainland born | 08JAN08 | 08JAN08 | No Change | 08FEB08 | 65% |
| India | 01NOV06 | 01NOV06 | No Change | 01DEC06 | 65% |
| Mexico | 08APR01 | 08APR01 | No Change | 08MAY01 | 65% |
| Philippines | 22SEP04 | 15JUL06 | +661 days (~1.8 yrs) | 15AUG06 | 60% |
F4 Note: This category has the longest waits. Mexico backlog exceeds 24 years (priority date 2001). Philippines jumped nearly 2 years, suggesting increased visa availability. Brothers and sisters category receives 65,000 visas annually plus any unused numbers from F1-F3.
DIVERSITY VISA (DV-2026) LOTTERY CUTOFFS
DIVERSITY VISA PROGRAM
CONFIRMED IN DEC BULLETIN
DV-2026 January Cutoffs (Confirmed)
The December 2025 bulletin confirmed the January 2026 DV cutoff numbers. DV-2026 annual limit is approximately 52,000 visas (reduced from 55,000 by NACARA and NDAA provisions). Numbers below are case numbers - applicants with rank numbers below these cutoffs may schedule interviews.
AFRICA
35,000
+17,500 from Dec (17,500)
Except: Algeria: 20,000 | Egypt: 16,000
ASIA
15,000
+5,000 from Dec (10,000)
Except: Nepal: 6,000 (unchanged)
EUROPE
8,500
+750 from Dec (7,750)
No country-specific limits
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)
20
No Change from Dec (20)
Only Bahamas eligible from NA
OCEANIA
1,100
No Change from Dec (1,100)
Low demand region
SOUTH AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
1,850
No Change from Dec (1,850)
Low demand region
DV-2026 DEADLINE REMINDER
Entitlement to DV-2026 status ends September 30, 2026. All selectees must complete visa issuance or adjustment of status by this date. DV availability could be exhausted before September 30 - act quickly if your number becomes current. Approximately 129,516 selectees were registered for DV-2026 from 20,822,624 qualified entries.
DV-2026 Selection Statistics
20,822,624
QUALIFIED ENTRIES
129,516
SELECTEES REGISTERED
~0.62%
SELECTION RATE
Application Period: October 2, 2024 (noon EDT) - November 7, 2024 (noon EST) - 37 days
TOP SELECTEE COUNTRIES BY REGION
Africa: Egypt (5,527), Algeria (5,457), Sudan (5,226), Kenya (3,949), Morocco (3,670)
Asia: Iran (4,137), Afghanistan (4,200), Nepal (3,933), Yemen (2,449), Burma (1,540)
Europe: Russia (5,510), Ukraine (5,283), Uzbekistan (3,754), Tajikistan (3,708), Kyrgyzstan (3,324)
S. America: Peru (1,596), Ecuador (1,270), Bolivia (269), Guatemala (367), Trinidad (139)
Ineligible countries for DV-2026: Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China (including Hong Kong SAR), Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Venezuela, Vietnam
COUNTRY-SPECIFIC DEEP DIVE
EB-2 Priority Date Timeline Projections
🇮🇳
75% CONFIDENCE
India - EB-2
FINAL ACTION DATES PROJECTION
NOV 2025
01APR13
Baseline
DEC 2025
15MAY13
+44 days
JAN 2026 (PRED)
01JUL13
+47 days (est)
FEB 2026 (PROJ)
15AUG13
+45 days (est)
KEY METRICS
~45 days
Avg. monthly advancement
12.5 years
Current backlog (to Dec 2025)
~3.3 yrs
Progress per calendar year
Steady
Movement pattern
🇨🇳
80% CONFIDENCE
China - EB-2
FINAL ACTION DATES PROJECTION
NOV 2025
01APR21
Baseline
DEC 2025
01JUN21
+61 days
JAN 2026 (PRED)
01AUG21
+61 days (est)
FEB 2026 (PROJ)
01OCT21
+61 days (est)
KEY METRICS
~61 days
Avg. monthly advancement
4.5 years
Current backlog (to Dec 2025)
~2 yrs
Progress per calendar year
Strong
Movement pattern
RISK ASSESSMENT
Factors That Could Affect Predictions
Retrogression Risk Factors
F2B ROW Massive Retrogression: Over 6 years backward movement (01FEB23 → 01DEC16) suggests visa number exhaustion or demand surge. High unpredictability for January.
EB-4 SR Critical Deadline: Religious Workers category expires January 30, 2026 (H.R. 5371). Applicants must be physically admitted to US by midnight January 29, 2026.
EB Filing Dates Retrogression: EB-2 ROW retrogressed from Current to 15JUL24. This signals USCIS managing filing volume.
EB-5 Unreserved China Volatility: +219 days movement (7+ months) could indicate large number recapture or pending correction.
Mexico/Philippines F3/F4 Stagnation: Mexico dates stuck at 2001 (24+ year backlog). Philippines F3 at Nov 2004. Limited forward movement expected.
Positive Indicators
EB-1 ROW/Mexico/Philippines: Remain Current with no signs of backlog formation. High confidence (95%) for January continuity.
EB-5 Set-Asides Current: Rural (20%), High Unemployment (10%), and Infrastructure (2%) categories remain Current for ALL countries including China.
EB-2/EB-3 India Steady Movement: Consistent 31-44 day monthly advancement for Final Action dates. At current pace, ~3.3 years progress per calendar year.
EB-2 China Strong Progression: +61 days movement indicates healthy visa number availability. Backlog reduced to ~4.5 years.
DV-2026 Exceptional Movement: Africa cutoff doubled to 35,000. Asia up 50% to 15,000. Suggests lower than expected interview no-shows.
ACTIONABLE GUIDANCE
Recommendations by Priority Date
EB-2/EB-3 INDIA: PD 2012-2014
Prepare for Action
- Your date is approaching current. Ensure I-140 is approved and not revoked.
- Complete medical exam (I-693) - valid for 2 years from physician signature.
- Gather civil documents (birth certificates, police clearances, etc.)
- Monitor bulletin monthly - dates advancing ~45 days/month for India EB-2.
EB-2/EB-3 INDIA: PD 2015-2019
Maintain & Plan
- Continue maintaining valid nonimmigrant status (H-1B, L-1, etc.)
- Consider H-1B extensions beyond 6 years using approved I-140 (AC21).
- Evaluate EB-1A/EB-1B eligibility if qualifications improved.
- Estimated wait: 3-6 years at current pace (~1.3 years progress/year).
EB-2/EB-3 INDIA: PD 2020+
Long-Term Strategy
- Focus on career growth and maintaining employment sponsorship.
- Seriously consider NIW (National Interest Waiver) if eligible.
- Track legislative developments (country cap reform bills).
- Estimated wait: 7-12+ years based on current patterns.
METHODOLOGY
How These Predictions Were Made
Data Sources
November 2025 Bulletin
DOS Publication 9514, CA/VO: Oct 1, 2025
December 2025 Bulletin
DOS Publication 9514, CA/VO: Nov 3, 2025
Movement Period
1 Month (Nov → Dec 2025)
Categories Analyzed
EB-1 to EB-5, F1-F4, DV-2026
Calculation Method
Primary Method
Linear extrapolation of observed movement
Day Calculation
Exact calendar days between dates
Confidence Scoring
Based on pattern consistency & volatility
Limitations
Single-month sample, no demand data
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
These predictions are for informational purposes only and are based on observed movement patterns from official visa bulletins. Actual visa bulletin dates are determined solely by the U.S. Department of State based on demand data and visa number availability. Historical patterns may not accurately predict future movement. The significant retrogression observed in family-based categories demonstrates the inherent unpredictability of the system. Always consult with a qualified immigration attorney for advice specific to your situation.