(LONDON) The price of access to the world’s most crowded premium runway has hit a new peak. At London Heathrow, the most sought-after morning slot pairs are now changing hands for up to $75 million each in 2025, reflecting the highest slot value ever seen at the airport and a market shaped by extreme demand and fixed capacity.
Airport Coordination Limited (ACL), the private body that allocates slots, reports that supply for the S25 planning season sits at about 90% of recorded demand, while the airport’s annual cap on Air Transport Movements remains locked at 480,000, a planning condition from the Terminal 5 era that still binds day-to-day operations.
Market peak and practical impact
The headline number — up to $75 million for the best morning arrival-departure pair — no longer looks like an outlier. It matches the figure once paid by Oman Air in 2016, but industry analysis shows the top end of the market has caught up. That eye-popping price is now the going rate for prime morning access rather than a one-off deal.
In practical terms:
– Airlines that want to land in the first wave and turn aircraft for early onward departures must either already hold these slots or be ready to pay sums that could buy a new narrowbody jet outright.
– Slot value depends heavily on the time of day; early morning arrivals paired with mid-morning or lunchtime departures command the highest prices.
Who controls the market
British Airways (BA) remains the dominant force on the ground, controlling more than half of all allocated times at Heathrow and shaping much of the secondary market.
Key features of the trading environment:
– Only airlines can participate in slot trades; banks and funds cannot own slots.
– Hundreds of slot trades happen weekly, but trades occur between operating carriers under tight oversight.
– The market therefore favors incumbents, giving them stability and leverage while raising high barriers for newcomers.
Regulatory tweaks in 2025
In February 2025, the UK government updated the rulebook through the Airports Slot Allocation (Alleviation of Usage Requirements etc.) Regulations 2025. Major changes include:
– Redefining “new entrant carrier” by raising the threshold from fewer than five slots per day to fewer than seven.
– Broadening grounds for “slot alleviation” (excusing non-use due to extraordinary circumstances).
Practical limitations remain:
– Benefits depend on whether useful slots open at all — and whether they appear at desirable times.
– Early morning ad hoc requests are shut between 04:30 and 08:00 UTC for S25.
– Late-night movements after 22:40 (local) require special night quota allocations.
Officials estimate airlines could save about £23.7 million each year in operator costs because the updated guidance reduces wasteful flying that would otherwise be used only to keep a slot alive.
Regulators say the wider relief should help cut “ghost flights” — near-empty flights flown to avoid losing slots — while keeping the schedule reliable.
The 80/20 backbone usage rule
The backbone usage rule still holds: carriers must fly at least 80% of their allocated times within a season to carry them into the next one. This so-called 80/20 rule is designed to prevent hoarding.
- Falling below this 80% usage baseline risks losing historic precedence for slots. Once lost, that precedence is nearly impossible to regain at Heathrow.
- The updated alleviation rules broaden “extraordinary circumstances” and aim to reduce wasteful flying without opening the door to hoarding.
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the wider relief should limit perverse outcomes—like running near-empty flights just to hit a usage target—while keeping control.
Capacity constraints and operational impacts
The cap of 480,000 annual movements and current terminal/stand limits affect operations in multiple ways:
– Stand capacity, terminal flows, and ongoing construction further limit flexibility.
– Ad hoc slots are limited; retiming after 22:40 needs night quota.
– The squeeze affects airlines planning seasonal growth, tour operators setting schedules, and passengers seeking nonstop seats at reasonable prices.
The daily rhythm of the airfield explains why: first-wave long-haul arrivals at dawn feed short-haul connections that depart in morning banks. Dislodge one piece and the chain misaligns.
Debate over auctions and expansion
Industry analysts argue the secondary trading system is opaque and favors incumbents. Some, including former government economist Tim Leunig, advocate slot auctions for greater transparency.
Arguments for auctions:
– Reveal true prices publicly.
– Could raise substantial revenue to improve airport infrastructure.
– A newly released batch of prime times could be worth many billions.
Arguments against auctions:
– Incumbent airlines warn auctions could raise costs and complicate long-term planning.
– Critics fear higher costs might pass through to fares and destabilize networks.
The proposed third runway would add 356 new daily slot pairs, a structural shift that could ease the crunch:
– More supply could lower prices and create opportunities for low-cost and new entrant carriers.
– As of August 2025, expansion is still going through planning and approvals — no new concrete or asphalt yet.
Supporters of auctions argue that, if a third runway delivers 356 pairs, auctioning them would be a fair way to allocate access and fund infrastructure. Opponents counter that auctions are unproven and could simply raise costs for consumers.
How slot allocation works in practice
The allocation system is procedural and tightly controlled:
1. Airlines request slots through ACL around the IATA scheduling conferences.
2. ACL assigns times based on:
– Historical precedence,
– New entrant priority,
– Department for Transport rules.
3. Carriers must use at least 80% of times each season to carry them forward, unless alleviation applies.
4. Trading and leasing happen under ACL oversight — but only airlines can hold or trade slots.
5. Compliance is closely tracked; misuse can trigger penalties.
Official resources:
– Department for Transport updates: Department for Transport
– ACL allocation procedures and statistics: Airport Coordination Limited
– Heathrow operational updates and policies: Heathrow Airport
Stakes for airlines, passengers, and the economy
For airlines:
– Choices are stark: pay high prices to build presence at Heathrow, wait for expansion, or focus elsewhere.
– Many carriers adopt hybrid strategies — a token presence at Heathrow while building elsewhere.
– For small carriers, even a handful of slots may be insufficient to make the network economics work.
For passengers:
– Outcomes show up as full flights at peak times, fewer new long-haul routes launched from scratch, and strong demand for nonstop seats in the first wave.
– Passengers continue to benefit from reliability enabled by strict slot control and the 80% usage rule.
For the broader economy:
– Heathrow’s role as a global hub supports trade, tourism, and jobs, but capacity limits ripple widely across sectors.
Short-term outlook
Until a third runway is approved and built — or unless the government commits to a new way of allocating fresh capacity — the current pattern will likely persist:
– High prices for prime times,
– Tight controls to keep the schedule stable,
– Incremental rule changes aimed at giving smaller players a better chance.
The difference in 2025 is how normalized the top price has become. A London Heathrow morning pair fetching up to $75 million is no longer a shock — it is the price of joining the first wave at one of the world’s busiest, most constrained hubs, and it sets the tone for every other deal on the board.
This Article in a Nutshell
In 2025 London Heathrow’s premium morning slot pairs fetched up to $75 million, driven by extreme demand and constrained supply. ACL reports S25 supply at about 90% of demand while the airport remains limited by a 480,000 annual Air Transport Movements cap. British Airways controls more than half of allocated times, strengthening incumbents’ advantage because only airlines can trade slots. February 2025 regulatory updates raised the new-entrant threshold and broadened slot alleviation to reduce ghost flights, potentially saving airlines around £23.7 million annually. The 80/20 usage rule still requires 80% seasonal use to retain precedence. Debate continues over introducing auctions and building a proposed third runway that could add 356 daily slot pairs; until then, high prices and tight controls will likely continue to shape airline strategy, passenger options, and the UK’s broader connectivity.
