- International arrivals fell for nine straight months through January 2026, dropping 4.2% year-over-year.
- Canada recorded the sharpest pullback among major markets with a 25.7% decline in 2025 visits.
- Mexico moved against the trend, becoming the top source market for the first time in 25 years.
(UNITED STATES) — International travel to the United States continued to fall in January, with overseas arrivals dropping 4.2% from a year earlier in the ninth straight monthly decline and remaining about 83.5% of 2019 volumes.
The slowdown extended a weak 2025 for inbound tourism, when international overnight visits fell 5.7% and the country lost 11 million international visitors. Early 2026 figures point to further strain from Visa Issues, a strong dollar, shifting traveler sentiment and cuts in airline capacity from some foreign markets.
Non-U.S. citizen air arrivals totaled 4.6 million in January, down 4.8% from January 2025 and equal to 87.4% of January 2019 levels. Total international air passenger enplanements between the United States and foreign destinations reached 21.4 million, down 0.5% year-over-year.
That weakness has left the United States out of step with the wider market. Worldwide arrivals are projected to grow 8.0% in 2026, while overseas visitation to the United States, excluding Canada and Mexico, fell 2.5% in 2025 and posted an 8th straight monthly drop of 1.3% to 3.2 million in December 2025.
Domestic Travel Offers Some Support
Domestic travel has offered some support. Air passenger volumes held steady year-over-year despite weather disruptions, hotel demand rose 0.5% for its first gain in seven months, and total travel spending increased 1.0%.
Still, international softness has dominated the outlook. Short-term rental demand fell 4.2% for the fourth straight month, leisure and hospitality jobs grew 0.1% year-over-year, and nearly 1 million openings remained unfilled.
Canada Leads the Decline
Canada recorded the sharpest pullback among major source markets. Visits from Canada fell 25.7% in 2025, air passengers dropped 11.9% to 2.2 million in January 2026, and land travel plunged 33% since April 2025.
A national survey found 62% of Canadians were less likely to visit in 2026, citing political climate, trade rhetoric, border scrutiny and safety concerns. Florida saw 15% fewer bookings, while Las Vegas lost 20% of Canadian visitors from the 1.4 million it received in 2024.
Airlines also cut back. Between January and March, carriers removed 450,000 seats from Canada to the United States, WestJet reduced U.S. capacity by nearly 20%, and Flare Airlines slashed 60% of routes.
Las Vegas illustrates the broader hit to destinations that depend on foreign visitors. Airline capacity from Canada into the city fell 35%, the lowest since 2006, while passenger vehicle crossings to U.S. border states dropped nearly 20% from January through October 2025.
Mexico Moves in the Opposite Direction
Mexico moved in the opposite direction. Visits from Mexico rose 8.6% in 2025, allowing it to surpass Canada as the top source market for the first time in over 25 years, excluding the pandemic period.
Mexican air traffic held at 3.8 million in January 2026, down 0.1%. That relative resilience stood out as other markets weakened.
Europe and Asia Post Steep Declines
Western Europe also sent fewer travelers. Overseas arrivals from the region fell 2.5% in 2025, with Germany losing 225,000 visitors in 2025 and posting a 12.3% decline in January 2026.
DIR Tour reported double-digit booking slumps from Germany tied to the political climate. In the United Kingdom, air passengers fell 5.6% to 1.3 million.
France, the Netherlands and Denmark also weakened. The Netherlands fell 12% and Denmark dropped 30% amid travel advisories linked to unrest and immigration clashes.
Asia posted some of the steepest declines. Arrivals from China fell 41% in January 2026, a drop tied to visa delays and screening.
South Korea fell 10.4% despite access to the Visa Waiver Program, as travelers turned to Japan and Southeast Asia for easier trips. India also declined.
Other regions showed similar pressure. Australia’s outbound travel to the United States fell even as its overall outbound travel rose 10%, and Africa and Oceania also posted declines.
Gateway Airports Feel the Strain
The strain has shown up at U.S. gateway airports, including JFK at 2.5 million, MIA at 2.3 million and LAX at 1.9 million. Those hubs still handled the largest volumes, but weaker international demand has weighed on traffic.
Several forces have converged to slow International travel into the country. Stricter border enforcement, visible deportations and Trump administration actions added to traveler uncertainty.
Proposed social media disclosure rules for visas could add another barrier. Travelers already facing longer processing times have shifted some demand to visa-free destinations in Europe and Japan.
Diplomatic and political tensions have added to the pressure. Canada’s 28% January drop was tied to diplomatic strains, while Germany’s Foreign Office warned of unrest.
Chinese social media has highlighted fears about safety and scrutiny. Surveys in allied countries also showed cooling views, and even stable markets such as the Netherlands cited uncertainty around screening.
Economics has made the United States a costlier destination. The strong U.S. dollar has raised travel costs for Europeans and others, and each 1% spending drop equals $1.8 billion in lost exports.
At the same time, outbound U.S. travel has risen. Americans took 5 million trips abroad in January, up 1.4% and equal to 126.9% of 2019 levels, as cheaper options outside the country attracted demand.
That imbalance helped produce a $72 billion travel trade deficit in 2025, with inbound spending lagging outbound spending. Earlier forecasts had pointed to an $18 billion international loss, contributing to a $64 billion total with domestic setbacks.
Economic Impact on Destinations and Businesses
For cities, states and tourism businesses, the impact extends beyond airline counts. Foreign visitor spending supports hotels, restaurants, retail, entertainment and tax revenue, and weaker arrivals have hit border states and destinations such as Florida especially hard.
Las Vegas again offers a measure of the downturn. The city’s visitor total fell 7.5% to 38.5 million, the lowest since 2010 excluding the COVID period, while hotel occupancy slipped to 80.3%.
International travelers made up 7% of flights there, and those volumes fell 6-10%+. Small businesses in tourism-dependent areas have also faced weaker demand.
Domestic flights rose, but inbound cuts persisted while the FAA faced staffing shortages from budget cuts, weather delays rose 40%, and the national airspace system dealt with telecommunications issues.
Those operational problems could become more visible in summer 2026 schedules. Even with stable domestic travel, the international side remains the weaker link.
What Travelers Should Expect
For travelers still planning visits, the message from the data is to prepare earlier and expect more friction. Visa and ESTA applications may require more lead time as scrutiny increases, while travelers should watch for any changes tied to social media rules.
Visitors from Visa Waiver Program countries such as the UK, Germany and South Korea still have a more direct path than travelers who need full visas. Even so, advisories in some countries have urged caution, and more screening can lengthen arrivals.
Costs also remain a central concern. A strong dollar means hotels, meals and attractions in the United States may compare less favorably with Europe or Asia for some families.
Airline schedules add another layer of uncertainty. With Canada-U.S. routes already cut back, travelers may need flexible bookings as carriers adjust capacity.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup offers one source of support, but the near-term trend remains weak. Oxford Economics forecasts 3.9% international inbound growth and a 0.4% rise in hotel demand in 2026, helped by the tournament and stronger global travel.
That outlook still assumes the United States will lag some peers. If sentiment worsens further, the recovery could stretch beyond 2029.
The broader picture is a tourism market still rebuilding from the pandemic but now facing fresh obstacles. After recovering part of the lost ground from 2019, inbound travel has stalled again, and the setback is most visible in Canada, parts of Europe and Asia.
Mexico has provided a counterweight, but not enough to reverse the overall direction. As travelers weigh price, ease and welcome, the United States enters 2026 with softer arrivals, growing Visa Issues and more pressure to persuade visitors that International travel to the country is worth the extra cost and scrutiny.
