Outsourcing Asylum: Unpacking the EU’s Shift to Safe Third Countries

Key Takeaways

• EU proposal May 2025 eases declaring asylum applications inadmissible using safe third country concept.
• Transit alone suffices for inadmissibility; appeals lose suspensive effect, allowing deportations before appeal.
• Asylum applications dropped since Oct 2024; Venezuela largest group; Spain, Italy mainly receive applications.

The European Union 🇪🇺 is in the midst of a major shift in how it handles asylum applications, with a new proposal from the European Commission aiming to make it easier for member states to declare applications inadmissible and send asylum seekers to non-EU countries. This change centers on the “safe third country” concept, which is now under review as part of the broader Pact on Migration and Asylum. The following analysis examines the purpose and scope of the new proposal, the methodology behind its development, key findings, data trends, comparisons, and the potential implications for asylum seekers, EU member states, and third countries.

Purpose and Scope

The main purpose of the European Commission’s May 2025 proposal is to streamline the asylum process within the European Union 🇪🇺 by making it easier for member states to declare asylum applications inadmissible if the applicant has passed through or has a connection to a “safe third country.” The scope of this proposal is broad, affecting all EU member states and potentially impacting thousands of asylum seekers each year. The changes are intended to:

• Reduce the pressure on EU asylum systems by allowing faster processing and more returns to non-EU countries.
• Align EU policies with the goals set out in the Pact on Migration and Asylum.
• Address the low rate of effective returns of people ordered to leave the EU.

This analysis covers the proposal’s background, its main features, the data on asylum applications, and the likely effects on human rights, legal standards, and the political landscape.

Methodology

This content is based on a careful review of the European Commission’s official proposal, statements from EU officials, data from the European Commission on asylum applications, and responses from human rights organizations. The analysis draws on:

• Official EU documents outlining the proposed changes and their legal basis.
• Statistical data on asylum applications and returns within the EU.
• Public statements from policymakers and advocacy groups.
• Comparisons with past and current asylum policies in the EU and other countries.

The goal is to present an objective, evidence-based overview that helps readers understand the proposal’s details, its context, and its possible outcomes.

Key Findings

• The new proposal removes the need for a personal connection between the asylum seeker and the safe third country, making it easier to declare applications inadmissible.
• Transit through a safe third country is now enough to apply the safe third country concept, even if the asylum seeker has no other link to that country.
• Member states can send asylum seekers to third countries with which they have agreements, even if the person has not transited through or has no connection to that country (except for unaccompanied minors).
• Appeals no longer have a suspensive effect, meaning people can be deported before their appeal is heard.
• Notification requirements will ensure that the European Commission and other member states are informed before new agreements with third countries are made.
• Human rights organizations have raised serious concerns about the risk of refoulement (sending people back to danger), arbitrary detention, and the burden on poorer countries.
• Statistical data shows a downward trend in asylum applications since October 2024, with certain nationalities and countries receiving the majority of applications.
• The proposal is likely to lead to more deportations, reduced access to asylum in Europe, and increased reliance on agreements with non-EU countries.

Data Presentation and Visual Descriptions

Asylum Applications in the EU (March 2025)

In March 2025, the 29 EU+ countries received about 67,000 asylum applications, continuing a downward trend that began in October 2024. Here’s a breakdown by nationality and country of application:

Top Nationalities Applying for Asylum

• Venezuelans: 8,900 applications (highest number)
• Afghans: 7,400 applications (stable, but down from previous peaks)
• Ukrainians: 3,400 applications (up 77% from March 2024)
• Syrians: 3,300 applications (lowest monthly number outside the COVID-19 pandemic)
• Bangladeshis: 3,300 applications

Visual Description: Imagine a bar chart with five bars, each representing a nationality. The Venezuelan bar is the tallest, followed by Afghans, then Ukrainians, Syrians, and Bangladeshis, all clustered closely together except for Venezuelans, who stand out.

Top Receiving Countries

• Spain: 14,000 applications (60% from Venezuelans)
• Italy: 13,000 applications (85% of Bangladeshi applications)
• France: 13,000 applications (most Congolese and Haitian applications)
• Greece: 4,600 applications (rising Afghan applications)

Visual Description: Picture a map of the European Union 🇪🇺 with Spain, Italy, France, and Greece highlighted. Each country has a bubble showing the number of applications, with Spain and Italy having the largest bubbles, followed by France and then Greece.

Return Rates

• At least 400,000 people are ordered to leave the EU each year
• Only about 20% are actually returned to their home country or a third country

Visual Description: Imagine a pie chart where a small slice (one-fifth) is colored to show the percentage of people actually returned, while the rest of the pie (four-fifths) represents those who remain in the EU despite being ordered to leave.

Comparisons, Trends, and Patterns

Evolution of the Safe Third Country Concept

The safe third country concept is not part of international refugee law but has been included in EU law to help manage asylum flows. Traditionally, a connection—such as family, previous residence, or other ties—was required between the asylum seeker and the third country. The new proposal removes this requirement, allowing for broader application.

Trend: The European Union 🇪🇺 is moving toward a more restrictive asylum policy, focusing on returns and externalizing responsibility for refugee protection to non-EU countries.

Comparison with Other Policies

• United Kingdom 🇬🇧 Rwanda Policy: The EU proposal has been compared to the UK’s Rwanda policy, which was ruled unlawful by the UK Supreme Court. Both policies aim to send asylum seekers to third countries, but the EU’s approach is broader and involves multiple potential partner countries.
• Safe Origin Countries: In April 2025, the Commission also proposed fast-tracking asylum requests from migrants coming from countries considered “safe,” including EU candidate countries and seven others.

Patterns in Asylum Applications

• Decreasing Applications: Since October 2024, the number of asylum applications has been falling.
• Changing Nationalities: Venezuelans now make up the largest group of applicants, with significant numbers from Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, and Bangladesh.
• Concentration in Certain Countries: Spain, Italy, and France receive the majority of applications, with each country seeing different dominant nationalities.

Evidence-Based Conclusions

Legal and Policy Implications

• Lower Bar for Inadmissibility: By removing the need for a connection and allowing transit as a sufficient link, the proposal makes it much easier for member states to declare asylum applications inadmissible.
• Risk of Refoulement: Human rights groups warn that the changes could lead to people being sent to countries where they face danger, violating the principle of non-refoulement (not sending people back to places where they could be harmed).
• Burden on Third Countries: The policy could shift responsibility for refugee protection to countries with fewer resources, potentially leading to overcrowded camps, poor living conditions, and lack of access to legal help.
• Legal Safeguards: The proposal maintains that each case must still be assessed individually, and the definition of a “safe” country remains unchanged. However, the threshold for safety was already lowered in 2024.

Political and Social Impacts

• Support and Criticism: Some politicians, like German MEP Lena Düpont, support the proposal as a way to improve asylum processing and returns. Critics, including Amnesty International, argue that it undermines human rights and shifts responsibility away from the EU.
• Public Debate: The proposal comes at a time of increased political tension over migration in Europe, with the European Parliament moving to the right after the 2024 elections.

Future Outlook

• More Deportations: If the proposal becomes law, more people could be deported to third countries, even if they have no real connection to those countries.
• Reduced Access to Asylum: It will become easier for EU member states to reject asylum applications as inadmissible.
• Increased Bilateral Agreements: Member states may sign more deals with non-EU countries to facilitate returns.
• Dynamic Safe Country Lists: The Commission can add or remove countries from the safe list as conditions change.

Limitations

• Uncertain Implementation: The proposal must still be approved by the European Parliament and the Council. Its final form may change during negotiations.
• Monitoring and Enforcement: There are concerns about the EU’s ability to monitor human rights conditions in partner countries and ensure that deported individuals are safe.
• Variation Across Member States: The proposal allows for different ways to apply the safe third country concept, which could lead to inconsistent practices across the EU.
• Data Gaps: While the data on asylum applications and returns is clear, there is less information on what happens to people after they are sent to third countries.

Practical Guidance and Next Steps

For asylum seekers, legal advisors, and advocates, it is important to:

• Stay informed about the legislative process as the proposal moves through the European Parliament and Council.
• Monitor changes to the list of safe third countries, as these can affect where people may be sent.
• Seek legal advice if facing an inadmissibility decision, especially since appeals may no longer prevent immediate removal.
• Consult official EU resources for the latest information on asylum procedures and rights. The European Commission’s Migration and Home Affairs page provides up-to-date details on current policies and proposals.

Conclusion

The European Union 🇪🇺 is moving toward a more restrictive approach to asylum, with the safe third country proposal representing a major change in how applications are processed. By making it easier to declare applications inadmissible and send people to non-EU countries, the EU aims to reduce pressure on its asylum systems and increase returns. However, this shift raises serious concerns about human rights, legal protections, and the burden placed on third countries.

As reported by VisaVerge.com, the debate over the safe third country concept is likely to continue, with strong opinions on both sides and significant implications for the future of asylum in Europe. Stakeholders should watch developments closely, seek reliable information, and be prepared for changes in the legal landscape.

For more information on the safe third country concept and asylum procedures, readers can visit the official European Commission Migration and Home Affairs website.

Key Takeaways:

• The EU’s new proposal could make it much easier to declare asylum applications inadmissible and send people to non-EU countries.
• The removal of the connection requirement and the acceptance of transit as a sufficient link are major changes.
• Human rights groups warn of increased risks for asylum seekers and greater burdens on poorer countries.
• The proposal is part of a broader trend toward more restrictive asylum policies in the European Union 🇪🇺.
• The legislative process is ongoing, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

Staying informed and seeking legal advice are essential for anyone affected by these changes.

Learn Today

Safe Third Country → A country outside the EU considered safe for asylum seekers, allowing their application to be rejected if they passed through it.
Inadmissible Application → An asylum request that a country can refuse to consider based on legal grounds like previous protection elsewhere.
Refoulement → The forced return of asylum seekers to countries where they face persecution or harm, prohibited by international law.
Effect of Appeal Suspensive → The legal effect where an appeal delays deportation; its removal means deportation can occur before appeal resolution.
Bilateral Agreements → Official arrangements between two countries to cooperate on asylum seeker returns and migration management.

This Article in a Nutshell

The EU’s May 2025 proposal expands the safe third country rule, allowing quicker asylum rejection and deportation. This aims to reduce pressure on asylum systems but raises serious human rights concerns regarding refoulement and burden on poorer countries.
— By VisaVerge.com