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Taxes

One Big, Beautiful Bill Could Mean Bigger Tax Refunds This Year

Taxpayers should prepare for the April 15, 2027, deadline while noting that OBBB provisions may increase 2026 refunds. However, accuracy is paramount; the IRS's automated matching systems will flag mismatches in income or missing schedules. The article advises on residency rules, foreign account reporting (FBAR/FATCA), and the proper use of filing extensions to avoid penalties.

Last updated: February 13, 2026 8:23 am
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Key Takeaways
→Taxpayers must file 2026 federal returns and pay balances by April 15 to avoid penalties.
→The OBBB legislation may increase tax refund amounts through higher deductions and overtime exemptions.
→Mismatched data or missing forms can trigger IRS audits and significantly delay refund processing.

📅 Deadline Alert: For tax year 2026 (returns filed in 2027), most individuals—including immigrants who are U.S. tax residents under the Green Card Test or Substantial Presence Test—must file their federal return and pay any balance due by April 15, 2027. Missing the deadline can trigger late-filing penalties, late-payment penalties, and interest, and it can also delay tax refunds.

As of February 12, 2026, many families are hearing that refunds could rise under the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB). That can be true. It also creates a trap: larger expected refunds often lead people to file quickly, even when forms are missing. The IRS’s automated error and document-matching systems can still freeze or slow refunds, and they can generate IRS audits or “audit-like” notices.

One Big, Beautiful Bill Could Mean Bigger Tax Refunds This Year
One Big, Beautiful Bill Could Mean Bigger Tax Refunds This Year

A refund is simply an overpayment of tax, often from wage withholding or estimated payments. A bigger refund does not always mean your total tax went down. It can also mean withholding went up, credits changed, or income timing shifted.

This guide explains what may push refunds higher for tax year 2026, why refund timing can slip, and what to do if an IRS letter arrives. For core residency rules, start with IRS Publication 519 (U.S. Tax Guide for Aliens) at irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p519.pdf.

Deadline summary (tax year 2026, filed in 2027)

Tax event Who it affects Deadline Extension available What happens if you miss it
File Form 1040 / 1040-NR and pay tax due Most individuals April 15, 2027 Yes, file Form 4868 to extend filing to October 15, 2027 Late-filing penalty, late-payment penalty, interest; refund delays
Estimated tax payments (quarterly) Self-employed, investors, some visa holders without withholding Apr 15 / Jun 15 / Sep 15, 2026; Jan 15, 2027 No (payment due dates do not extend) Underpayment penalty risk
FBAR (FinCEN 114) reporting foreign accounts U.S. persons with foreign accounts over threshold April 15, 2027 (auto-extends to Oct 15, 2027) Automatic to Oct 15 Civil penalties for non-filing

Disaster relief can change deadlines. The IRS posts official extensions by location at irs.gov/newsroom.

Expected refund increases for tax year 2026 (filed in 2027)

→ Analyst Note
If a larger refund is expected, still review withholding and prepayments early (W-2/W-4 changes, multiple jobs, bonus pay). A very large refund can signal over-withholding; adjust so you’re closer to break-even without risking underpayment.
2026 filing season refund outlook (key figures)
Projected total refund increase $65 billion
Year-over-year increase 18%
Average refund lift tied to retroactive elements +$750 (to ~ $3,800)
Estimated total OBBB relief $91 billion
→ INCLUDES
~$60 billion in refunds included in OBBB relief total

OBBB-related changes may increase refunds for some households because the law can change both (1) the final tax calculation and (2) how much is prepaid through withholding. Retroactive features can also create gaps between what employers withheld early in the year and what the final rules allow on the return.

Refund timing still follows old rules. Most error-free e-filed returns with direct deposit are issued faster than paper returns. Refunds slow down when the IRS must verify identity, manually review entries, or reconcile missing forms. Common delay points include:

  • Missing W-2s or 1099s (or entering different amounts than the IRS received)
  • Claiming credits without required schedules
  • Paper filing, math errors, or inconsistent names/SSNs/ITINs

Distribution also matters. Some middle-income and upper-income filers may see larger changes than lower-income filers. That does not mean every household will. Your refund depends on filing status, withholding, credits, and deductions.

→ Recommended Action
If you file an extension, estimate and pay any expected balance by the tax deadline to limit interest and penalties. Use last year’s return, current-year paystubs, and major 1099 totals to make a conservative payment.

Key OBBB drivers and their real-world filing impact

Several OBBB provisions can move refunds, but eligibility and documentation determine whether the IRS accepts the return as filed.

Return review risk check: common IRS match and documentation triggers
If you received any W-2/1099/1098 → confirm every payer amount is included and matches; fix omissions before filing
If you changed jobs, had gig income, or withdrew retirement funds → verify withholding and taxable amounts; watch for missing 1099s
If you claim large deductions/credits vs. income → prepare written support and third-party records; expect possible notice
If you have foreign financial assets or accounts → determine whether Form 8938 or other international reporting applies; file required schedules
If you paper-file or hand-enter figures → recheck arithmetic and SSNs; consider e-file to reduce clerical errors
If you request an extension → file later if needed, but pay any expected balance by the deadline
  • Higher standard deduction: When the standard deduction rises, many filers stay with it instead of itemizing. That can lower taxable income, but it does not guarantee a larger refund. Withholding and credits still drive the final “refund vs. amount owed” result.
  • SALT deduction mechanics: If state and local tax deductions become more available for some households, the effect tends to be larger for people with higher property taxes and state income taxes. Phase-outs can reduce the benefit at higher income levels.
  • No tax on overtime or tips (documentation matters): This is where refund delays can show up. Keep paystubs and year-end wage statements. Make sure what you report matches what your employer reports. Mismatches are exactly what IRS matching programs flag.
  • Senior-related deductions/adjustments: If you or a parent qualifies, confirm the amounts on year-end statements. Enter them correctly on the return.
  • State tax impact: Federal changes may not carry into state returns. Your state may still tax items that the federal return excludes.

Filing season timing and why “file early” can backfire

The IRS usually opens e-filing in late January. Filing early can help fraud prevention, but only if you have complete forms. Many immigrants receive additional documents later, such as:

  • Brokerage Forms 1099 (often corrected)
  • Partnership K-1s
  • Foreign bank or investment annual statements

An extension (Form 4868) gives more time to file, not more time to pay. Pay what you reasonably expect by the April deadline to reduce penalties and interest. Official filing guidance and forms are at irs.gov/forms-pubs.

IRS audits, notices, and the mismatch problem (especially for immigrants)

Audit-ready documentation checklist (reconstruction-friendly)

Most returns are not examined, but review risk is real. The IRS matches what you file against third-party reports: W-2, 1099, 1098, and others. A mismatch can trigger a notice asking for proof, or it can adjust the return.

Patterns that often cause refund holds or IRS letters include:

  • Omitted income (a missing 1099 is common)
  • Missing schedules (for self-employment, credits, or investments)
  • Unusually large deductions relative to income
  • Paper return errors and unsigned returns

Extensions do not raise audit risk. They do increase risk if taxpayers treat them as “extra time to pay.”

Foreign reporting is another frequent pitfall. If you become a U.S. tax resident, you may have worldwide reporting duties.

Filing status (living in U.S.) FBAR threshold (FinCEN 114) Form 8938 threshold (end of year) Form 8938 threshold (any time)
Single / Married filing separately $10,000 aggregate $50,000 $75,000
Married filing jointly $10,000 aggregate $100,000 $150,000

Form 8938 is a FATCA form filed with the tax return. FBAR is filed separately. See the IRS international portal at irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers.

⚠️ Warning: Do not “guess” numbers to speed up a refund. If the IRS cannot match income or support a deduction, it can freeze the refund and later assess tax, penalties, and interest.

If you get an IRS letter and records are missing

Start with the basics:

  1. Read the notice and note the response deadline.
  2. Confirm the tax year and the issue being questioned.
  3. Respond with organized documents, not a pile of receipts.

If you are missing records, reconstruct them with bank and credit card statements, employer payroll portals, invoices, mileage logs, calendars, and email confirmations. Reasonable explanations can help clarify facts, but unsupported claims are often reduced or disallowed.

Bring in a CPA, EA, or tax attorney when the amounts are large, foreign reporting is involved, or you are unsure how to respond. Representation can improve how documents are presented and how issues are negotiated.

Who may benefit most—and how to keep refunds moving

Refund increases tied to OBBB are more likely to be noticed by middle- and upper-income households and by workers with overtime or tips. The bigger the numbers and the more complex the return, the more filing precision matters.

Before you file for tax year 2026:

  • Reconcile every W-2 and 1099 to what you enter on the return.
  • Confirm your residency status under Publication 519 rules.
  • Keep a single folder for wage statements, paystubs, and foreign account year-end summaries.
  • E-file and choose direct deposit when possible.
  • If you need time, file Form 4868 and pay by April 15, 2027.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute tax, legal, or financial advice. Tax situations vary based on individual circumstances. Consult a qualified tax professional or CPA for guidance specific to your situation.

Learn Today
OBBB
One Big, Beautiful Bill; a legislative act impacting tax deductions and credits.
Standard Deduction
A specific dollar amount that reduces the income on which you are taxed.
FBAR
Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts, required for aggregate totals over $10,000.
Form 4868
The IRS application used to request an automatic 6-month extension to file a return.
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