US Labor Dept says immigration crackdown could shrink ag workforce

(UNITED STATES) The U.S. Department of Labor has formally warned that the ongoing immigration crackdown is shrinking the agricultural workforce and putting immediate pressure on food production, according to Federal Register filings in October 2025. The agency says the reduction in farm labor is already straining operations and risks pushing food prices higher for families nationwide.

Farm groups report that roughly 80,000 fewer agricultural workers were available between January and August 2025, and some producers say crops are going unpicked and cows aren’t being milked because there aren’t enough hands to do the work.

Labor shortage: scale and immediate risks

In filings, the Department describes a “current and imminent labor shortage” in American agriculture, linked directly to stepped-up enforcement against undocumented workers who have historically filled seasonal jobs. The Department adds that unemployed or marginally employed Americans are not taking these jobs, even when wages rise, citing the physically demanding nature of farm work and limited advancement.

The implications for the United States’ food system are immediate:

• The Department states that “without swift action, agricultural employers will be unable to maintain operations, and the nation’s food supply will be at risk.”
• Filings point to disruptions in harvests and higher production costs that could ripple through grocery aisles.
• Analysis by VisaVerge.com notes the agency’s unusually direct language, signaling urgency from a regulator that typically avoids sweeping market forecasts.

An impact study cited by the Department estimates:

Officials warn conditions may be more severe now: with about 42% of the U.S. crop workforce now unable to enter or choosing to leave, the Department expects larger losses unless employers can access replacement labor quickly.

Policy filings and labor market outlook

The Department’s filings note that efforts to replace lost workers with domestic hires have fallen short. Recruiters report few takers for field jobs that require long hours in tough conditions, often far from cities, with seasonal schedules and limited worker housing.

• Even farms offering higher wages say they cannot fill crews in time for planting or harvest.
• Hoped-for automation gains have not arrived at scale, especially for labor‑intensive crops like lettuce, berries, and tree fruit.

To prevent deeper losses, the Department is pivoting toward expanding lawful hiring through the H‑2A program, which allows U.S. farms to bring in temporary workers for seasonal needs. Officials are proposing changes aimed at faster recruitment and lower costs for employers. Among the most controversial moves:

• Adjusting the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) for certain roles so farms can afford to hire more workers.
• Example: in Arizona, the proposed minimum for minimally skilled H‑2A jobs would be $15.32 per hour, about 10% lower than before.

Supporters of the changes argue:

• Farms need relief now to stabilize food production.
• If crews shrink further, more vegetables and fruit will be plowed under, milk output will drop, and prices will climb.
• Some producers say harvest windows were missed this year by days because dozens of workers never arrived.

Critics counter:

• Cutting guest worker pay risks depressing local wages and deepening reliance on a workforce that can be exploited.
• Labor advocates call for stronger enforcement against wage theft, safer housing, and clearer pathways to permanent status for repeat seasonal workers.
• They say the answer is not cheaper labor but safer jobs with stronger protections.

The Department acknowledges these concerns while stressing the immediate risk to food supply if farms cannot quickly fill seasonal roles.

The Department’s message is blunt: labor shortages tied to the immigration crackdown are already constraining the agricultural workforce, and absent quick adjustments, fallout could spread across supply chains.

H-2A program changes and practical implications

The Department’s approach seeks to widen the pipeline of legal seasonal workers through the H‑2A visa program, which is jointly administered by several agencies.

Key steps in the H‑2A process:

1. Employers secure a temporary labor certification from the Department of Labor.
2. Employers file a petition with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) using Form I-129.
   • See the official page: Form I‑129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker
3. After petition approval, workers apply for visas at U.S. consulates abroad and must meet screening requirements before travel.

The Department says proposed changes aim to:

• Cut delays and expand recruitment windows.
• Reduce uncertainty during peak seasons.
• Ease the wage formula in certain roles to prevent closures and stabilize hiring in the short term.

Practical implications for stakeholders:

• For farmers: filings make clear the labor shortage is real and likely to worsen without faster H‑2A processing and more flexible wage rules.
• For workers: proposed wage adjustments might mean lower earnings in some roles but could open more job slots and longer seasons if employers can afford larger crews.
• For consumers: if farms cannot staff up, food production dips and prices rise—especially for fresh produce, dairy, and other perishables.

Industry groups report warning signs from the field:

• Missed milkings when crews are short.
• Fewer apples harvested per acre.
• Salad greens tilled back into the soil.
• Small and mid‑size producers—operating on thin margins—say a few missed weeks can lead to heavy losses or closures.

The Department also disputes the idea that tighter enforcement will quickly pull more U.S. workers into the fields. It notes:

• Even in regions with higher unemployment, recruitment for farm roles remains weak.
• The work’s intensity, short seasons, and remote locations limit domestic take‑up despite wage increases.

For official details on wage rules and certification steps, employers and advocates can review the Department’s H‑2A resources on the U.S. Department of Labor’s site: U.S. Department of Labor’s foreign labor programs. The filings stress the goal is to keep farms operating while maintaining worker protections. Any final rule will go through the standard notice-and-comment process.

Broader policy debate and timeline

The broader policy debate is unlikely to fade. Positions include:

• Supporters of stricter enforcement say the crackdown is overdue and will push employers to raise pay and invest in mechanization.
• Farm operators counter that seasonal cycles and crop biology set hard limits on how fast machines can replace people.
• They note that higher posted wages alone have not delivered enough domestic workers in the past year.

Timing and stakes:

• The Department warns growers are watching the clock as winter planting and spring harvest schedules approach.
• The window to line up crews is narrow.
• Whether policy changes come fast enough—and whether they restore enough labor—will affect how much food reaches store shelves next year and what families pay at checkout.

Important takeaway:

• The filings convey urgency: without swift action to address the labor gap, disruptions in production and rising consumer prices are likely.