US Enquiries Down 46% Last Year; Canada Enquiries Slump 75%

A steep fall in international student interest is reshaping higher education in the United States 🇺🇸 and Canada 🇨🇦, with fresh data pointing to a sharp drop in enquiries and approvals through 2024 and early 2025. Recent reports show a 46% decline in enquiries for studying in the U.S. over the past year, while Canada has seen a 75% drop in enquiries over two years.

On the ground, approvals tell the same story: Canada issued 48% fewer study permits in 2024, and U.S. institutions reported a broad enrollment decline in new international students for Fall 2024. The pace is faster in Canada, where a two-year cap, new paperwork, and stricter rules have reduced numbers beyond government targets. U.S. headwinds stem from visa uncertainty and growing global competition.

Key statistics and the apparent contradiction

• United States:
  • New international enrollments fell 5% year-over-year in Fall 2024.
  • SEVIS records indicate an 11% decrease in total foreign student enrollment between March 2024 and March 2025.
  • 42% of U.S. colleges and universities reported that new international enrollments were down for Fall 2024.
  • Yet the total international population still reached 1.58 million in 2024, up 5.3% from 2023 due to continuing students and record participation in Optional Practical Training (OPT).
• Canada:
  • Only 267,890 new study permits were issued in 2024—nearly 100,000 below the IRCC target.
  • Approval rates fell broadly following the introduction of a two-year cap (Jan 2024) and widespread use of the provincial attestation letter (PAL/TAL).
  • Early 2025: approval rates for Indian students dropped to 28% in Jan 2025, from 81% a year earlier.

That apparent contradiction in the U.S.—fewer entrants but a larger total population—reflects a system where students are staying longer to finish programs or to gain work experience via OPT.

Policy shifts driving the slide

United States: visa scrutiny and post-study work uncertainty

• Tighter screening at consulates and higher rejection rates in some markets have raised doubts among prospective families.
• Talk of limits to OPT and inconsistent processing times have added to uncertainty.
• The U.S. share of the global international student market has slipped from 20% (2013–14) to 16% (2023–24).
• Recruiters are shifting tactics toward:
  • Emphasizing career outcomes
  • Showcasing alumni mentors
  • Expanding digital outreach

Canada: caps, PAL/TAL and tighter rules

• In January 2024, IRCC introduced a two-year cap on new study permits and required most applicants to include a PAL/TAL.
• For 2025, the cap is set at 437,000 study permits—a further 10% decrease from 2024—and now includes master’s and doctoral applicants.
• Approval rates fell to 48% in 2024, from 59.8% in 2023.
• Additional measures: higher financial thresholds, restrictions on dependents in some categories, and tighter post-graduation work rules.
• Government rationale: ease housing pressure and protect services; Prime Minister Mark Carney (as of April 2025) pledged to bring temporary resident levels down to 5% of the population by 2027.
• Analysts argue the 5% target is unlikely before 2029 because many students switch to work permits or other pathways.

“The cap is destabilizing and excessive,” say groups like the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE) and Languages Canada, warning of long-term damage.

Campus consequences and applicant realities

On campuses

• United States:
  • The overall headcount increase masks a clear decline in new arrivals.
  • Administrators are investing in advising, internships, and employer partnerships to demonstrate tangible ROI to families.
  • Programs with strong employer links and STEM fields are holding up better.
• Canada:
  • Immediate and severe impacts on institutions that rely on international tuition.
  • Actions taken by colleges/universities:
  • Cutting staff
  • Delaying capital projects
  • Freezing admissions for certain intakes when PAL/TAL allocations ran out
  • Programs previously in high demand (business diplomas, applied tech, hospitality) now face empty seats.
  • Language schools report sudden feeder-stream gaps.

Practical requirements for applicants and families

• Canada-bound applicants:
  • Must secure a provincial or territorial attestation (PAL/TAL) before filing a study permit; without it, applications are refused.
  • IRCC raised financial requirements and narrowed dependent options in some cases.
• U.S.-bound applicants:
  • Face closer visa interviews and varying approval odds by country.
  • Uncertainty around OPT policies increases family risk calculations.
• Common advice:
  • Emphasize clear academic goals, credible funding, and strong links to post-study careers.

Uneven effects by program and institution type

• U.S.: STEM programs and institutions with employer pipelines are faring better due to internships and job placements.
• Canada: Graduate programs with research funding may still attract offers but are constrained by the cap.
• Public colleges heavily dependent on a few source countries are absorbing the largest shocks.

The macro picture and local economic impacts

• Canada’s international student population peaked at 1,040,000 in 2023, then fell to 997,820 by end of 2024.
• The outcome—48% fewer study permits—exceeded the intended cut.
• U.S.: new international student enrollment has been flat since 2022, at roughly 299,000 new entrants each year.
• The 46% drop in enquiries in the most recent year reflects changing perceptions and more alternatives globally.

Local economies feel the pullback:
– Reduced student spending affects housing, transit, and retail.
– Canadian university towns report softer rental demand.
– U.S. cities that rely on OPT populations worry fewer new arrivals will mean fewer early-career workers for tech and healthcare sectors in 2–3 years.
– Employers seeking OPT grads call for clearer, stable rules to plan entry-level hiring.

Critics argue policy should distinguish between:
– High-quality programs with strong outcomes and
– Weaker operators that strain local services.

Suggested alternatives include targeted standards and clearer visa/post-study work rules rather than broad caps.

What to watch through 2025

1. Canada:
   • Cap remains in force through 2025.
   • Ceiling of 437,000 study permits keeps volumes low.
   • Approval rates could fall further if backlogs and strict reviews persist.
2. United States:
   • Continued talk of tighter OPT rules would increase pressure.
   • Institutions will likely emphasize career-focused programs and partnerships.
3. Policy debates will intensify:
   • Canada: calls for models that protect housing/quality while preserving top-tier student flows.
   • U.S.: push for predictable visa processing and steady post-study work.
4. The 5% temporary resident target for Canada by 2027 will be tested; analysts point to 2029 or later as more realistic.

Practical next steps for prospective students

• Monitor official sources for real-time updates on allocations and paperwork.
• For Canada: consult IRCC’s cap and allocation guidance at the official page: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/study-canada/study-permit-cap.html
• For the U.S.: track consular appointment wait times and discuss visa support and practical training options early with schools.
• Key application priorities:
  • Secure any required attestation letters (PAL/TAL) for Canada before filing.
  • Demonstrate credible funding and clear career/academic goals.
  • Choose programs with strong employer connections or clear post-study pathways where possible.

The market is resetting. Families still value North American degrees, but policy changes are forcing harder choices. Universities and colleges are responding with clearer career pathways, stronger advising, and more financial aid. Whether these measures will reverse the enrollment decline in new cohorts will depend on policy moves in Ottawa and Washington and how quickly students’ trust returns amid expanding global options.