Unauthorized U.S. Immigrants Expand and Diversify, Fact Sheet Reveals

(UNITED STATES) The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States 🇺🇸 reached a modern high in 2023 and then began to shift in 2024 and 2025, according to new assessments by research groups and government officials. The Pew Research Center estimates the population hit 14 million in 2023, the largest since such estimates began. Researchers say growth slowed in late 2024, and early 2025 trends point to a possible decline tied to stronger enforcement and fewer protections.

Homeland Security officials have recently said the number of people living in the country without legal status may be falling, citing more deportations and voluntary returns. A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said the agency is seeing fewer long-term overstays and more returns at the border than last year. While exact counts are hard, these signals match the pattern researchers describe: a peak in 2023, slower growth in early 2024, and a turn toward decline by mid-2025.

Shifts in size and pace

The unauthorized immigrant population is not static; it moves with policy, labor demand, and conditions in home countries.

Pew’s 2023 figure of 14 million sets the baseline. Analysts say the number appears to have continued rising into mid-2024, then leveled off. By mid-2025, estimates suggest a drop of up to 1 million compared with that 2023 high. Even with a dip, the total likely remains above the early-2023 level.

Policy changes help explain the timing:

• During the early part of the Biden administration, more people were allowed to enter with limited protections that reduced the immediate risk of removal. Those steps included broader use of parole and other temporary measures.
• Researchers note such protections expanded the population counted as living in the U.S. without permanent status, creating a larger “gray area” between temporary permission and full deportation risk.

Under President Trump, recent actions have gone in a different direction:

• Increased deportations, narrower use of protections, and tighter screening appear to be pressing the total downward in 2025.
• Department of Homeland Security statements point to both removals and voluntary departures as drivers.

These shifts align with the 2025 trends reported by several research groups.

Changing origins and community impact

The makeup of the unauthorized population is changing.

• In 2010, people from Mexico made up about 62% of the total.
• By 2023, Pew reports that share fell to about 40%.

From 2019 to 2023:

• The number from Central America rose by about 1.7 million, with many from Honduras and Guatemala.
• South America added about 729,000, including more people from Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, and Ecuador.

Demographers at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) say more people from Asia — including India and the Philippines — now live in the U.S. without legal status. Many arrived on temporary visas, stayed for jobs or family reasons, and later fell out of status. Others reached the southern border after long journeys through multiple countries.

Community impacts are tangible:

• School districts add language support for students speaking Spanish, Portuguese, and Indigenous languages from Central America.
• Clinics report increased need for trauma counseling among families who passed through dangerous routes.
• Employers in farming, food processing, home care, and construction report steady demand for workers and new hires from both Latin America and Asia.
• Local leaders in newer arrival cities say housing and legal aid systems are stretched.

What the numbers mean for families and employers

Policy swings create real worry for mixed-status families. Examples:

• A parent with no status may skip work or school events if local enforcement rises.
• People with pending cases may cancel travel inside the U.S. to avoid checkpoints.
• A smaller pool of available workers can push up wages in sectors dependent on new arrivals.
• Sudden deportations can disrupt small businesses that rely on steady crews.

Advocates recommend practical steps:

• Keep personal records in order and stay in contact with legal service groups.
• Track expiring work permits tied to temporary protections and watch deadlines.
• If you receive a notice from immigration authorities, respond on time.

Official guidance and data updates are available from the Department of Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics, which posts enforcement and population reports that affect public debate:
– https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics

VisaVerge.com notes that national policy shifts often appear in the data with a lag of months. That lag matters for 2025 trends:

• Removals recorded in spring may not quickly change survey-based estimates of people living in the country.
• Some who leave are replaced by new arrivals.
• Local patterns vary: border regions may experience faster change than interior cities, while states with large long-term communities often show steadier numbers.

How researchers build the estimates

Pew builds its figures mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS).

• Analysts compare the total foreign-born population in the ACS with counts of those here on legal paths, then estimate the remainder as the likely unauthorized population.
• The approach has been used and refined for years and is updated when new ACS data arrives.

MPI and other demographers also use Census surveys, demographic models, and outside datasets. They emphasize that entries and exits both matter:

• People are removed, leave voluntarily, obtain legal status, pass away, or move to other countries.
• Others arrive at the border or overstay visas.
• Each stream raises or lowers the total, so the number can climb even as deportations rise — and can fall even if some arrivals continue.

Researchers caution margins of error apply: surveys miss some people, and policy steps can alter how comfortable families feel answering questions. Still, year-to-year patterns like the 2023 high and the 2025 slowdown appear clearly across methods.

Looking ahead

The road ahead depends on policy choices in Washington and events abroad:

• Further limits under President Trump could speed the 2025 decline.
• Court rulings may change how fast cases move.
• Talks with other governments could affect returns and transit routes.
• If labor demand stays strong, employers may continue to pull workers even as rules tighten.

For now, the picture is this:

• The unauthorized immigrant population peaked at about 14 million in 2023.
• The share from Mexico dropped to about 40%.
• Early 2025 trends suggest the total is edging down as enforcement rises.

The Pew Research Center and MPI will keep updating their counts as fresh data arrives, and DHS is expected to release more details on returns and removals later this year. Families, employers, and local officials will be watching closely, because behind every number is a household trying to plan for next week and a workplace trying to keep the lights on.