(FRANCE) Ukrainian nationals filed nearly 16,000 asylum applications across the EU and Switzerland in the first half of 2025, a jump of about 29% compared with the same period in 2024, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA). Nearly half of these claims were lodged in France, with about a third in Poland, marking the highest level since 2023.
While the overall number still sits well below the surge seen in 2022, the rise signals growing concern among Ukrainians about their long-term status in Europe as the war drags on and temporary protections face an eventual end date.
Temporary Protection Directive: status and implications
The EU’s Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) remains in place for Ukrainians until at least March 4, 2026, allowing residence, work, schooling, and access to healthcare. But the clock is ticking, and many families who fled bombing and blackouts now fear a cliff edge if protection isn’t extended.
As a result, more people are choosing the asylum track to seek longer-term security. This trend is most visible in France and Poland, where officials report steady inflows of new applicants.
Scale of displacement across Europe
EU data show more than 5 million Ukrainian refugees registered across Europe as of May 2025. The largest host countries are:
- Germany: about 1.2 million
- Poland: about 1 million
- Czech Republic: about 0.4 million
The scale underscores how the war has reshaped communities across the bloc and explains why policy debates on costs, housing, and integration have moved to center stage in several capitals.
Why the asylum shift matters
The numbers stand out for two main reasons:
- They represent a clear shift back toward asylum after a period when most displaced Ukrainians relied on temporary protection for everyday needs.
- The rise comes even as recognition rates for Ukrainian asylum claims remain relatively low because authorities often consider Ukrainians already protected under the TPD.
In practice, asylum is now more common among:
- People who do not qualify for, or are at risk of losing, temporary protection
- Individuals with special vulnerabilities
- Families seeking a more stable status for long-term planning and family reunification
Drivers behind the increase (EUAA monitoring)
EUAA monitoring suggests several drivers behind the increase:
- Uncertainty over the TPD end date: current stop date is March 4, 2026, creating anxiety about the future.
- Security conditions in Ukraine: ongoing fighting, damaged infrastructure, and lack of safe return options.
- Economic pressures: scarce jobs in parts of Ukraine.
- Integration hurdles in host states: language barriers, hard-to-find housing, and patchy employment opportunities.
- Family and health needs: children’s education, trauma, medical needs, and separation from relatives.
Officials in several countries are reviewing support levels, arguing that a longer war demands a new approach. Germany and the Netherlands have debated benefits and integration rules recently. France has emerged as a leading destination for new Ukrainian applicants, reflecting both capacity and growing Ukrainian communities in French cities. Poland remains central, managing large temporary protection and asylum caseloads.
Impact on applicants and host countries
For Ukrainians, the choice between temporary protection and asylum carries real-life trade-offs:
- Temporary protection
- Faster and simpler
- Provides work rights and basic services
- Time-limited and politically dependent
- Asylum
- Can offer stronger long-term safeguards, including a path to permanent residency and broader family reunification
- Process can be slow, uncertain, and recognition rates are modest
In most cases, the Dublin Regulation still applies, meaning people should file an asylum claim in the first EU country they enter unless family ties or other rules allow transfer. Interviews, evidence of personal risk, and country-of-origin information all shape decisions.
Wait times in busy systems can stretch from several months to well over a year, affecting applicants’ ability to plan for work, schooling, and housing.
Humanitarian and administrative pressures
NGOs report that uncertainty around the TPD end date fuels stress for families already coping with trauma. Examples include:
- Parents worrying about keeping children in the same school if status changes
- Patients needing long-term treatment fearing a break in care
Humanitarian groups warn that a sharp cut in support could push people into irregular work and poor living conditions.
At the government level, the burden is uneven:
- Countries with large Ukrainian communities face more pressure on housing and local services
- Some regional leaders call for stronger EU-wide coordination and extra funding
- Others review how to balance short-term reception with long-term integration
Migration agencies expect a steady rise in Ukrainian asylum claims through late 2025 and into 2026 if no clear plan for the post-TPD period emerges.
Officials say the core policy choice is not whether Ukrainians need protection—they do—but how best to structure that protection as the war continues.
A new extension of temporary protection would likely relieve asylum systems in the short term. But families seeking durable status, or those with special risks, may still opt for asylum. Without a coordinated long-term plan, countries could see continued shifts between systems, creating administrative strain and confusion for applicants.
On-the-ground examples and legal complexity
Personal decisions often illustrate the differences between systems:
- A mother in Lyon who arrived under temporary protection may apply for asylum because her child needs long-term therapy and schooling stability.
- A student in Kraków might choose asylum after family ties change or out of fear of conscription or targeted threats if forced to return.
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the pattern is strongest in countries that combine:
- Sizable Ukrainian communities
- Available legal aid
- Clear information channels about asylum options
The report notes that families with mixed nationalities and those who moved several times within Europe often face more complex legal paths, which can lead to asylum claims even when temporary protection remains an option.
Recognition outcomes vary. Many cases do not result in full refugee status because temporary protection already covers core needs. Still, the asylum route can make sense for people with individual risks—political targeting, activism-related threats, or severe trauma. Lawyers advise applicants to:
- Be ready to explain personal history in detail
- Provide any documents available, even if incomplete
- Understand authorities will check country conditions and consistency across interviews
What to expect next
For now, the EUAA and national migration offices continue to gather data and issue guidance. The EU is expected to consider the future of temporary protection later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on developments in Ukraine.
If the war continues at current intensity, officials and aid groups expect asylum applications by Ukrainians to keep rising, at least modestly, as families seek a more stable future in Europe.
The debate focuses on wider policy goals:
- How to help people settle where they can work and study
- How to support city budgets stretched by new arrivals
- How to share costs fairly across the bloc
Some lawmakers push for stronger labor-market access and fast-track recognition of qualifications, arguing this helps both Ukrainians and local economies. Others worry about pressure on housing and schools and call for tighter rules. These tensions gain urgency as the TPD deadline approaches.
Practical points for Ukrainians choosing between routes
Ukrainians deciding whether to apply for asylum or remain under temporary protection should consider:
- Legal certainty: Asylum may lead to stronger long-term rights but often takes longer to resolve.
- Family needs: If family reunification is a priority, asylum can sometimes offer broader routes.
- Local support: Legal aid, language classes, and job services differ by country and city.
- Travel and residence history: The Dublin rules and prior registrations can affect where an application is examined.
Experts advise seeking trustworthy information from official sources. The European Union Agency for Asylum provides statistics, country guidance, and updates that can help people and advisors track changing rules: https://euaa.europa.eu. UN agencies and local NGOs also share country-specific help lines, though the level of support varies.
Closing summary
As the first half of 2025 shows, the story of Ukrainians in Europe is shifting from emergency flight to longer-term planning. Families want clear answers about the years ahead: stable status, schooling that won’t be disrupted, steady jobs, and access to healthcare.
Whether that comes through another extension of temporary protection, through more asylum approvals, or a mix of both will shape policy and daily life in neighborhoods across the EU. The choices made in late 2025 will carry real weight for people who have already endured loss and uncertainty, and whose future depends on rules made far from home.
This Article in a Nutshell
The European Union Agency for Asylum reports nearly 16,000 asylum applications by Ukrainian nationals in the EU and Switzerland during the first half of 2025 — a 29% increase versus the same period in 2024. France received almost half of the claims and Poland about a third, the highest level since 2023. Although the Temporary Protection Directive provides residence, work and healthcare until at least March 4, 2026, uncertainty about its future, ongoing fighting in Ukraine, economic pressures, and family and health needs have driven more Ukrainians to pursue asylum for longer-term security. The shift creates administrative pressures for host countries, raising debates about housing, integration, funding and faster recognition or alternative pathways. Officials say coordinated EU planning and clearer guidance are needed to manage continued increases through late 2025 and into 2026.
