The United States 🇺🇸 is bracing for a U.S. tourism loss of about $5.7 billion in 2025 as Canadian visitors continue to stay home, according to recent industry counts. The drop is sharpest along the northern border, where towns that rely on weekend shopping and summer festivals say the difference is visible on main streets and in hotel lobbies. The 2025 decline is tied to a steep falloff in trips from Canada 🇨🇦 by both road and air.
Border crossings and travel data
U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures for the first half of the year show about 4.5 million fewer land crossings by Canadians than the same period in 2024, a 19% slide. Year-to-date land traffic is down 28%, while overall Canadian visitation has fallen 23.7%.
- The trend is not limited to highways and bridges — airlines report fewer bookings from Canadian cities, compounding losses for destinations that count on long weekend getaways and cross-border sports travel.
- The federal agency’s data underpins the reported 2025 decline, and monthly totals continue to show the gap hasn’t closed. There has been no change to entry rules specific to Canadians, and processing lanes at major crossings operate as usual, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Economic impact and where it hits hardest
Industry groups say the financial impact runs beyond hotels and restaurants, touching retail, attractions, and seasonal work. Canadians spent more than $20 billion in the United States in 2024, making them the country’s largest group of international tourists. This year’s projected $5.7 billion shortfall hits hardest in border states and lake towns that rely on repeat trips rather than once-in-a-lifetime visits.
Affected regions and examples:
– Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, coastal towns in Maine, and the broader Great Lakes region report softer cash registers and quieter festivals.
– Merchants in border towns report 30–50% drops in Canadian customers, directly cutting into seasonal profits.
– In Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, cross-border traffic has fallen roughly 25%, affecting diners, small shops, and sports tournaments that draw families from Ontario.
Business responses and local effects
Local businesses describe the downturn in plain terms: fewer familiar faces, shorter lines, and empty rooms on weekends that were once sold out months in advance.
- Some hotels have trimmed staff hours and paused upgrades to conserve cash for winter.
- Marina owners report open berths and easier day rentals compared with prior summers.
- Festival organizers that counted on Ontario license plates say sponsorship is harder to secure without reliable Canadian turnout; some have downsized stages or cut fireworks to manage costs.
“When people choose to stay closer to home for reasons that feel personal or political, discounts don’t always change the decision,” one tourism consultant said, summarizing sentiment seen across industry surveys.
Broader market trends and forecasts
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the slump in Canadian visitors arrives as the broader global market cools. The U.S. Travel Association expects a 6.3% decline in total international travel to the United States in 2025, the first annual drop since 2020.
- Many destinations plan to boost domestic marketing to offset the gap, but operators say it is difficult to replace loyal Canadian repeaters who often book the same cabin, campground, or lodge year after year.
- Airports and big-city hotels are trying to balance weaker Canadian demand with other markets, but the customer mix matters: a frequent short-haul Canadian visitor is not easily replaced by a rare long-haul traveler.
Consumer behavior and motivations
Travel behavior data adds to the picture:
- Google search trends show falling Canadian interest in U.S. destinations while searches for Canadian locations are rising.
- Reporting from Tourism Economics and PBS NewsHour describe a cautious mood among Canadian households weighing exchange rates, gas prices, and the tone of U.S. politics.
- In practice, this means keeping vacations closer to home, swapping cross-border shopping for local trips, and booking fewer spontaneous weekend drives south.
Many Canadians point to political sentiment — including worries about policy direction and the “51st state” narrative — as reasons to skip trips this year. Canadian officials, including former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial leaders, have encouraged travelers to explore domestic options instead, a message that appears to be resonating.
Operational changes at the border and in events
For border communities, the change has practical effects:
- Towns that used to boost staffing at inspection booths ahead of long weekends now see traffic waves that are easier to manage.
- Ferry operators on the Great Lakes report lighter decks.
- Festival organizers and local sponsors face uncertainty without reliable Canadian turnout.
Travel groups watching the summer peak hope that family reunions, weddings, and sports tournaments will lift numbers, even if they do not restore the full pipeline. For the moment, small operators are cutting costs and seeking state grants to bridge the season.
Policy, politics, and calls for action
The timing of the slide has drawn political attention. The downturn began after President Trump returned to office and has continued into 2025, according to industry reports.
- Advocates for northern communities argue the United States should redouble efforts to welcome back Canadian visitors with clear, friendly signals from leaders in both countries.
- Business owners note a strong cross-border flow helps both sides: Canadians save on goods and enjoy attractions, while U.S. towns keep seasonal jobs and tax revenue.
- Without a rebound, operators warn that maintenance backlogs will grow and some family-run inns may consider closing for part of the year.
What communities are trying and the outlook
Communities are trying new ideas — joint promotions with Canadian towns, targeted ads, and weekend events — but early results are mixed. Officials and analysts are cautious about a quick rebound.
- While exchange rate shifts can prompt some cross-border shopping, this year’s mood appears rooted in more than price.
- Industry groups emphasize messaging that highlights safety, value, and familiar traditions to attract traditional Canadian visitors.
The math is simple and unforgiving: with Canadian visitors still staying home, the country faces a U.S. tourism loss measured in billions, and the softening shown in the first half of the year threatens to pull down the rest of the season. If the 2025 decline continues through the holidays, industry trackers say the hit will reach beyond border counties into major cities that depend on steady cross-border air routes from Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Businesses across the northern tier are hoping for a late surge, but they’re planning for a lean year.
This Article in a Nutshell
U.S. tourism is projected to lose $5.7 billion in 2025 as Canadian visitors decline sharply. CBP data show 4.5 million fewer land crossings in the first half—a 19% fall—and a 23.7% drop in overall Canadian visitation. The loss disproportionately affects border states, lake towns, hotels, retailers and seasonal events, prompting staffing cuts and scaled‑back festivals. Industry groups call for stronger cross‑border messaging and targeted marketing, though analysts expect a gradual, uncertain recovery.
