U.S. immigrant population drops 2.2M amid aggressive 2025 expulsions

The U.S. immigrant population has dropped by approximately 2.2 million since January 2025, a steep decline concentrated among undocumented immigrants and other non-citizens. As of August 18, 2025, federal figures and independent estimates point to stepped-up enforcement under President Trump and Department of Homeland Security leadership by Kristi Noem as key drivers.

DHS said deportations and voluntary departures accelerated through the summer, while the shutdown of the CBP One App closed a major legal entry path for asylum seekers. The department replaced it with the CBP Home App, which pairs incentives with messaging to encourage self-departure.

Recent DHS actions and numbers

On August 14, 2025, DHS Secretary Noem reported that 1.6 million illegal immigrants had left the country in less than 200 days. She cited targeted removals and a global messaging blitz encouraging self-deportation under “Operation Homecoming.” The new CBP Home App offers $1,000 and a free flight to those who depart voluntarily.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the policy suite represents one of the most aggressive federal campaigns aimed at shrinking the undocumented population in recent decades.

For official updates on these programs, consult DHS directly at www.dhs.gov.

Broader migration and labor statistics

Multiple institutions report sharp declines in migration and foreign-born labor participation in 2025:

• The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates net international migration for 2025 at roughly 1.0 million, down from 2.6 million in 2024 and 3.5 million in 2023.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show:
  • Foreign-born labor force fell by 601,000 between January and May 2025.
  • Total foreign-born population declined by 957,000 over the same span.
• A preliminary researcher estimate places the January–July 2025 fall in the U.S. immigrant population at about 2.2 million, including a drop of roughly 1.6 million in the undocumented count, to 14.2 million.

Researchers emphasize the decline is concentrated among non-citizens, especially Latin American arrivals since 1980, while counts of naturalized citizens have remained comparatively stable.

Policy shifts and enforcement measures

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) have ramped up operations targeting criminal offenders and recent arrivals. DHS also launched a multilingual ad campaign abroad and in the United States that warns those without status to leave voluntarily or face arrest, deportation, and fines.

Key policy changes and effects:

• Termination of the CBP One App, which had allowed asylum seekers to schedule appointments at ports of entry.
• Introduction of the CBP Home App, which:
  • Replaces a managed appointment system with incentives for self-removal.
  • Combines financial ($1,000) and logistical (free flight) assistance with messaging to depart.
• DHS statements emphasize goals of national security, relief for local services, and opening jobs for U.S.-born workers and lawful immigrants.

Supporters argue deterrence plus faster removals reduces smuggling and taxpayer costs. Academic and policy experts warn that limiting legal pathways while pressing mass removals can:

• Harm local economies
• Separate mixed-status families
• Unsettle communities

They caution that shutting off orderly entry systems may push some asylum seekers toward riskier routes.

Economic and community effects

With fewer foreign-born workers, the labor market has tightened. Employers in agriculture, healthcare, and STEM report mounting difficulty filling roles that previously drew on immigrant labor.

Highlights and impacts:

• The BLS 601,000 drop in the foreign-born labor force through May 2025 aligns with business reports of shortages in seasonal and specialized staff.
• DHS and some local officials report eased pressure on schools, hospitals, and social services; community groups in some areas note lower short-term costs.
• Conversely, other experts warn that rapid population loss can:
  • Weaken small businesses
  • Cut consumer spending
  • Reduce city budgets dependent on sales and income taxes

Demographic context matters: from 2022–2024, immigrants fueled most U.S. population growth as the nation rebounded from the pandemic slump. The 2025 pullback reverses that trend, raising concerns that without robust migration, a country with falling birth rates faces slower growth and a faster-aging workforce.

Local effects and household changes

On the ground, families and communities are making difficult decisions:

• Some mixed-status households relocate together.
• Others split, with one parent leaving while children or partners remain.
• Small towns report empty storefronts and reduced entrepreneurship.
• Farm operators describe unharvested fields.
• Home health agencies extend waitlists due to caregiver shortages.

Labor market watchers expect a mix of outcomes: near-term wage gains in some sectors may coexist with persistent shortages in key industries if the trend continues.

Political and legal outlook

DHS signals continued and potentially stronger enforcement, and the White House has not ruled out further limits on legal immigration and refugee admissions. Experts anticipate more:

• Lawsuits from immigrant rights groups
• Lobbying from labor organizations
• Legal and political challenges from some state governments

If enforcement remains elevated, analysts expect continued downward pressure on the U.S. immigrant population and a sustained shift in migration projections for 2025.

Historical contrast

Policies under President Biden expanded appointment-based entry options at the border. The 2025 removal of those pathways, combined with stepped-up removals, marks a clear strategy reversal and corresponds with the largest short-term fall in the foreign-born and undocumented population in years.

Key figures at a glance

Takeaways

The 2025 shift combines intensified enforcement, incentives for self-departure, and the removal of appointment-based entry, producing a rapid contraction in the non-citizen and undocumented population. Supporters frame this as restoring order and reducing costs, while critics warn of economic, social, and humanitarian harms.

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