Trump Deportations Drive Farm Labor Shortages with No Long-Term Fix

(OREGON, UNITED STATES) Orchards across northern Oregon are short of pickers at the height of harvest, dairy barns in Pennsylvania are scrambling to keep milking shifts covered, and a meatpacking town in Illinois is bracing for more layoffs, as farmers and processors say Trump’s deportation push in 2025 has triggered a sharp farm labor shortage without a long-term fix in sight. The pullback in immigrant labor since January, coupled with stepped-up ICE raids and the rollback of temporary protections, has sent shockwaves through supply chains that depend on seasonal and year-round workers.

“We have a pretty good sized crop. Quality is good. It’s nice fruit… And this year, that flow of labor was disrupted,” said Ian Chandler, director of field operations at a 300-acre orchard in northern Oregon, where about 90% of his crews are immigrants.

He said the fear is so pervasive that even workers with legal status are staying home, unnerved by the prospect of workplace checks and the broader climate surrounding ICE raids. The result, he added, is fruit at risk of rotting on trees as picking windows close.

Federal data suggest the squeeze is real and widening. The U.S. agricultural workforce fell by 155,000 workers—about 7%—between March and July 2025, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Over the first seven months of the year, the total number of immigrant workers across the economy dropped by 750,000, Pew Research Center figures show, thinning the ranks for a sector that leans heavily on foreign-born labor, especially during peak planting and harvest weeks. Industry analysts project the agricultural sector will need 2.4 million more farmworkers in 2025 to meet output demands, setting up a stark gap between labor needs and the workers available to fill them.

On dairy operations that never pause, the strain is immediate.

“People don’t understand that if we don’t get more labor, our cows don’t get milked and our crops don’t get picked,” said Tim Wood, a dairy farmer and Pennsylvania Farm Bureau board member, describing the daily juggling act to staff milking parlors and feed runs.

In Westfield, Pennsylvania, organic dairy farmer John Painter said he supported the White House through two elections but is now watching his workforce dwindle fast.

“The whole thing is screwed up. We need people to do the jobs Americans are too spoiled to do,” said Painter, who called the current situation untenable heading into winter when staffing is tightest and margins thinnest.

Growers and ranchers point to a common thread: stepped-up enforcement, harsher rhetoric, and policy reversals that have pushed migrant workers deeper into the shadows or out of the country altogether. In Illinois, hundreds of workers were cut from the JBS meatpacking plant in Beardstown after the rollback of humanitarian parole programs and mass deportations, according to local officials and industry advocates. The hit to payrolls in plants like Beardstown has a spillover effect on nearby farms that supply livestock and feed, increasing costs and uncertainty throughout the region.

Farm owners say the enforcement drive has created a chilling effect that reaches beyond undocumented crews. Even permanent residents and citizens in mixed-status families are avoiding public places or skipping shifts out of fear a routine traffic stop or a checkpoint near a jobsite could draw attention to loved ones. For Chandler in Oregon, that anxiety has translated into missed shifts just as apples, pears, and other fruit ripen at once. He said the disruption to the traditional flow of migrant labor this season is unlike anything he has seen in recent years.

The administration has pointed to the H-2A visa program as its safety valve for growers, and applications under the program have risen as labor tightens. But farm groups and producers say the program cannot cover the year-round needs of dairy, pork, and poultry operations and is complicated even for seasonal employers.

“The H-2A program is not the sustainable solution, but it is a short-term solution. I do foresee the H-2A program continuing to increase in use, but by no means is that a measure of its popularity,” said John Walt Boatright, director of government affairs at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Producers describe “red tape and high costs” and say H-2A is “off-limits to employers looking to hire for year-round operations like dairy farms,” a constraint that has become more painful as local labor pools shrink.

To use H-2A, employers typically file a petition like Form I-129 with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, secure a temporary labor certification, and meet housing and wage requirements that many small operators struggle to shoulder. Growers say the paperwork crunch can stretch for weeks, leaving fields exposed to heat, frost, or pests while crews are still awaiting approvals. The program’s narrow, seasonal scope is a deal-breaker for dairies, which milk cows two to three times a day, 365 days a year. Processors and year-round produce houses say they are turned away at the front door of a system that, in their view, was built for a 20th-century labor model that no longer fits modern agriculture. For official filing information, see USCIS: Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker.

The political stalemate in Washington has deepened the uncertainty. Farmer groups say there has been no significant legislative movement to expand lawful channels for year-round farm labor or to stabilize the existing workforce. A federal government shutdown earlier this year and the lack of congressional hearings on broader reform have stalled discussion of narrower fixes that once had bipartisan interest. With no clear path forward, producers say they are leaning on overtime, shifting family members into field roles, or leaving marginal acres idle to cut their exposure to labor swings.

Those stopgaps carry steep costs. Crew shortages mean growers miss the ideal day to pick tree fruit or harvest leafy greens, reducing yields and quality. Cows that are milked late suffer health setbacks, cutting dairy output and adding veterinary bills. Crews moving too fast to cover more ground risk injuries and equipment damage. At farms like Chandler’s, where the crop “Quality is good,” the lack of hands undercuts a year of work preparing orchards for harvest. He and others say the math is changing: fewer reliable workers, higher wages to compete for those who remain, more paperwork for visa routes that do not fit their operations, and thin margins that cannot absorb many more shocks.

The scale of the pullback is showing up in labor statistics and in daily routines. Between March and July 2025, the 155,000-worker drop in agriculture reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics translated into gaps across packing lines, sorting sheds, and field crews. Pew’s estimate of a 750,000 fall in immigrant labor from January through July 2025 extended beyond farms into the broader food chain—trucking, processing, warehousing—adding to delays already caused by tight logistics and extreme weather in some regions. Producers say the combined effect is a system operating without slack, where every missed shift cascades through multiple steps and pushes products closer to expiry or beyond their optimum harvest window.

In communities tied to agriculture, the strain is visible in small but telling ways. School fundraisers that rely on harvest-season overtime checks are bringing in less. Farm supply stores report slower traffic as growers trim purchases of fertilizer and parts. Some farmers say they are considering selling herds or leasing land if costs keep rising and reliable staffing remains elusive. A few have put up notices for direct-to-consumer sales to move perishable goods quickly when contracts cannot be met. The immediate pinch is on growers and workers, but local chambers worry the longer-term damage will be to the region’s agricultural identity, hollowed out by a labor shortage that few see easing soon.

Supporters of tougher enforcement argue that tightening the labor market should draw more U.S. workers into farm jobs. Producers say they have raised wages and offered bonuses but still cannot attract enough local hires to make up for the rapid loss of experienced hands. The work is physically demanding, often outdoors in heat or cold, and requires speed and skill to avoid damaging crops or livestock. Turnover among new hires is high, growers say, and training slows operations during a period when every hour counts. Some dairies report relying on managers to take overnight milking shifts, a short-term fix that risks burnout.

Farm organizations are pressing for targeted changes they believe could shore up the workforce without broad immigration reform. Dairy and livestock advocates want a year-round visa option they can access quickly and at predictable cost. Growers want a streamlined H-2A pipeline that reduces processing times and paperwork burdens. Packers and processors seek clarity on how enforcement will be carried out at workplaces so they can plan staffing without abrupt disruptions. For now, though, they say the message from Washington is mixed—promises of a stronger food system alongside policies that, in their view, drain the labor that food production relies on.

The administration’s supporters counter that the H-2A program and other temporary measures can be scaled up to respond to demand. But in places like Beardstown, Illinois, the job cuts tied to the rollback of humanitarian parole programs and mass deportations have fed doubts that expansions on one front can offset contractions on another. Producers and local officials say each enforcement step reverberates along the supply chain, from feed growers who lose a buyer to trucking firms that cannot find drivers. Those ripple effects are hard to reverse once families leave, school enrollments drop, and communities adjust to a smaller workforce.

For farmers like Chandler and Painter, the debate has moved from political theory to weekly and even daily decisions. Do they bring in a smaller crew and risk leaving fruit in the field, or hire new workers who may not have the speed for peak harvest? Do they cut less profitable lines to focus on what they can reliably pick and process, or stretch themselves thin and hope crews show up? Several producers said the climate surrounding ICE raids has led them to stagger start times, reduce visibility of field operations, and invest in legal consultations to ensure paperwork is in order, costs that roll into the price of food consumers see on shelves.

Industry leaders warn the path ahead is steep without a policy shift. Boatright’s view that H-2A use will keep rising “by no means is that a measure of its popularity,” a sentiment echoed by growers who describe the program as a patch on a widening hole. As the projected need for 2.4 million more farmworkers in 2025 collides with thinner hiring pools, labor brokers report longer waitlists and higher fees, adding to complaints about “red tape and high costs.” And because H-2A remains “off-limits to employers looking to hire for year-round operations like dairy farms,” the producers most at risk say they have the least access to help.

The political calendar offers little comfort. Producers note that with a federal government shutdown earlier this year and no serious hearings scheduled on targeted agricultural visas, legislative fixes are unlikely before the next planting season. Some fear another year of hard choices: plant fewer acres, shift to less labor-intensive crops, or scale back dairy herds to match crews they can realistically staff. Others worry that if Trump’s deportation agenda continues without a broader plan, the gradual attrition of skilled crews will become permanent, reshaping rural economies that have long depended on immigrant labor to keep orchards, dairies, and packing lines running.

For now, the harvest is the clearest test of how deep the labor crunch runs. Chandler’s orchards are a case study:

“Quality is good,” he said, but the crews are thinner, and the picking window will not wait.

As growers juggle schedules and call in favors to cover shifts, the question hanging over fields from Oregon to Pennsylvania is how long farms can operate under a system where workers are leaving faster than they can be replaced—where ICE raids spook even those with papers, and where a stopgap visa that suits a seasonal past is tasked with powering a year-round food economy.