Trump administration plans major H‑1B overhaul: ‘Time to hire American’

(UNITED STATES) The Trump administration is moving to end the H-1B visa’s lottery-based selection and replace it with a wage-based system, marking the most sweeping shift to the high-skilled work visa in more than a decade. On August 8, 2025, the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs approved a proposed rule that would rank H-1B cap registrations by pay level, favoring the highest wage offers until the annual cap is met. The Department of Homeland Security is preparing to publish the rule for a public comment period, a required step before finalizing the change. While the 2025 cap season for FY2026 still ran under the lottery, officials and employers are planning for the new wage-first model to take effect as early as the next filing cycle.

The stakes are high for workers and companies across the United States. Each year, the government issues 85,000 new H-1B visas—65,000 under the regular cap and 20,000 for those with U.S. advanced degrees—far fewer than demand. Under the planned rule, the order in which cases are chosen would no longer be random. Instead, the system would push top wage offers to the front of the line, a change that could tilt the field toward large tech firms and well-funded employers able to pay more.

Supporters say this approach will ensure the “best and brightest” are selected and will help protect wages for U.S. workers. Critics warn it will squeeze out startups, nonprofits, universities, and recent graduates, and could push jobs overseas if smaller employers cannot compete.

Recent Rulemaking and Enforcement Trends

The administration’s push does not stop with selection rules. A final regulation that took effect January 17, 2025 tightened the definition of “specialty occupation,” a core requirement for H-1B eligibility. Employers now must show more specific and advanced qualifications tied closely to the job.

At the same time, enforcement has ramped up:

• More Requests for Evidence (RFEs).
• Increased unannounced site visits.
• Less predictability in adjudications and reduced deference to past approvals.

Businesses report rising compliance costs, stretched timelines, and growing legal risk.

President Trump has framed the policy drive as part of a broader effort to “hire American” while still admitting top global talent. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the government plans to revamp both the H-1B and green card systems, pledging, “We’re going to change that programme … We’re going to change the green card.” Alongside the wage-based H-1B rule, the administration is also exploring a new “Gold Card” route that would grant permanent residency to foreign nationals who invest at least $5 million in the U.S. economy. Details remain under discussion.

Why This Matters: Numbers and Trends

Even with these changes in motion, the current cap remains in place, and the recent cycle still used the lottery. Key data points:

• In 2024, about 400,000 H-1B applications (including renewals) were approved.
• Nationals of India continued to make up more than 70% of recipients.
• Under President Trump’s first term, H-1B denials peaked at 24%; under President Biden they fell to roughly 2–4%.

Employers report heavier documentation loads and longer processing times in 2025, reflecting stricter review. Many expect denial rates to rise again.

Policy Changes Overview

The upcoming wage-based rule would reorder how H-1B cap cases are chosen:

• Registrations would be ranked by the wage the employer commits to pay.
• The highest salaries would be selected first until the cap is filled.
• Employers are likely to respond by offering higher pay to improve selection odds.

Potential impacts:

• Large firms with deeper resources could gain advantage.
• Smaller employers—startups, public school districts, some hospitals—may struggle to compete.
• Early-career roles (typically lower-paid) could be the hardest hit even when the skills are in demand.

The DHS/USCIS tightening on specialty occupations (effective January 17, 2025) requires a stronger match between a worker’s degree and the job, plus more detailed proof that the role needs advanced skills. Employers report:

• Noticeable jump in RFEs.
• More in-person checks.
• Less predictability for repeat filings.

The administration’s wider immigration plans include the “Gold Card” proposal tied to $5 million investments. Supporters say it will attract wealth and job creation; critics call it a back door for the rich while employment-based green cards face long backlogs. Policy watchers also note talk of curbing H-4 employment authorization, which would affect spouses of H-1B workers and dual-career families.

Effects on Workers and Employers

The transition period is creating significant concern:

• Recent graduates and junior professionals may lose the lottery’s element of chance.
• Some workers may relocate to countries with clearer, faster immigration paths.
• Employers unable to secure visas may shift work overseas or hire remotely, shifting jobs and tax revenue away locally.

Government messaging emphasizes fairness to U.S. workers: higher wages signal skill and job value, and stricter rules will reduce abuse. Opponents counter that pay does not always reflect talent, especially in academia, research labs, and community hospitals that operate on fixed salary scales.

On the ground, companies are responding by:

• Modeling different wage offers to rank better.
• Revising job descriptions to meet the tightened specialty-occupation standard.
• Considering moving roles abroad if U.S. hiring becomes too costly or uncertain.
• Gathering detailed evidence earlier and budgeting for more legal support.

Practical Steps Employers Are Considering

1. Reassess pay for cap-subject roles to improve selection odds.
2. Tighten job descriptions and minimum requirements to meet the stricter standard.
3. Build documentation files early—duties, org charts, proof of work location.
4. Prepare for RFEs and onsite visits with clear compliance policies and designated contacts.
5. Explore cap-exempt hiring (universities, nonprofits) or alternative visa categories.

Worker Responses and Alternatives

• Move to higher-paying employers or markets to raise pay prospects.
• Pursue other visa routes, including:
  • O-1 for extraordinary ability.
  • Investor options (proposed Gold Card, EB-5), noting high costs and complexity.
• Families on H-4 visas are closely watching possible changes to spousal work rights.

Consider three common scenarios:

• Seed-stage startup vs. large competitor: Startup may lose a recent graduate if it cannot match pay.
• University department: Academic pay scales could leave research roles down the list.
• Mid-career software architect with high salary: Likely to fare well under wage ranking.

Legal and Political Landscape

Legal experts expect court challenges once the rule is finalized. Past attempts faced lawsuits that slowed or blocked implementation. Key points:

• Some attorneys argue wage ranking departs from the law’s original design.
• Others say agencies can set selection rules to manage the cap.
• Litigation could shape the rollout and create uncertainty for stakeholders.

According to VisaVerge.com analysis, court battles are likely and may result in last-minute changes. Stakeholders should plan for both a wage-based system and the possibility of judicial intervention.

Historical Context and Strategic Responses

When H-1B rules tightened from 2017–2020, denial rates surged and many employers paused or shifted hiring. When policies loosened later, denials fell and the lottery returned, restoring predictability. The renewed strict review in 2025 signals another policy swing.

How stakeholders are adjusting:

• Filing extensions and green card steps earlier.
• Moving quickly on H-4 employment renewals while available.
• Avoiding repeating painful policy cycles by preparing documentation and contingency plans.

Public Comment and Next Steps

DHS will publish the wage-based proposal for public comment. The process:

• Stakeholders (employers, workers, schools, unions, public) submit feedback.
• DHS considers comments, then issues a final rule—subject to legal challenges.

Timing aims for the next cap season, but dates could slip if litigation or administrative hurdles arise. Employers should prepare for both outcomes: a wage-based selection or another year of the lottery.

“Stakeholders should plan for both a wage-based system and the possibility of last-minute court orders.” — Analysis echoed by policy watchers and legal experts

Broader Implications and the Gold Card Proposal

Demand for global talent continues across tech, finance, healthcare, and research. The administration’s approach uses pay as a check on misuse, but observers disagree on outcomes:

• Proponents: wage-based selection will raise pay, reduce abuse, and incentivize local hiring.
• Opponents: it may simply reshuffle who gets visas, push work offshore, and harm public institutions that pay less.

The proposed Gold Card (permanent residency for a $5 million investment) highlights a contrasting policy choice—courting capital in addition to talent. Supporters argue investor programs can fund projects and jobs; skeptics worry it prioritizes wealth over fairness and fails to address backlogs in employment-based green cards.

H-4 Spouses and Family Considerations

Talk of restricting H-4 work authorization raises major concerns:

• Many families rely on two incomes in high-cost areas.
• Losing spousal income could prompt families to leave the U.S., taking talent and children out of local communities.
• Employers and regional leaders warn of harm to local tax bases and ecosystems.

Preparing for the 2026 Cap Season and Beyond

How stakeholders are preparing:

• Map roles by pay tier and location to assess competitiveness.
• Build stronger evidence packages (duties, degree requirements, org charts).
• Train managers for site visits and documentation of supervision/work location.
• Counsel workers on timing for extensions and green card steps; develop backup plans.
• Budget and prepare for RFEs and legal support.
• Track agency updates weekly.

Summary checklist for immediate action:

• Audit H-1B roles for pay competitiveness and degree alignment.
• File extensions and dependent work renewals early.
• Prepare RFE materials: supervisor letters, duty breakdowns, proof of end-client work.
• Map plan-B routes: cap-exempt options, alternate visas, or overseas hiring.
• Monitor USCIS guidance and rule publications closely.

Human Impact and Closing Observations

The human side is stark: doctoral students, community hospitals, small startups, and families all face concrete trade-offs tied to regulatory text. The administration’s message is explicit—reward higher pay and impose stricter standards—but the real-world effects will depend on final rule language, enforcement, and court rulings.

For official program details, USCIS hosts the H-1B page with rules, filing steps, and policy alerts. Readers can review eligibility, cap rules, and agency updates at the agency’s site: USCIS H-1B Specialty Occupations.

As the formal public comment period approaches, stakeholders across the country are preparing comments to press their case. Tech groups will stress skill-based rewards; universities will seek guardrails for research and teaching; hospitals will plead for access to critical talent; worker groups will push for wage protections and enforcement. Courts may ultimately define the bounds of agency power versus Congressional intent.

What is certain: change is coming. The shift from a lottery-based to a wage-based system, the narrower specialty occupation rule, and tougher enforcement point to a new era for H-1B policy. Employers and workers must act early, document fully, and prepare for more scrutiny—or look to cap-exempt roles, alternative visas, or other countries. The window to adapt is short, and with rule publication close at hand, both hope and worry are rising in equal measure.