Texas, Florida Drive Far More ICE Arrests Than California — But Why

From January 20 through late June, Texas accounted for about a quarter of arrests nationwide, with Florida following and California growing more slowly overall but showing sharp midyear spikes. Newly released data explain the map’s shape—and indicate steps mixed‑status families, communities, and advocates can take to prepare.

The numbers at a glance

• Total arrests (Jan. 20–late June 2025): 109,000+; up about 120% vs. the same 2024 period under President Biden (CBS News, El País).
• Texas: 26,341 arrests (about 23% of the national total), per the Los Angeles Times.
• Florida: 12,982 arrests (about 11%).
• California: 8,460 arrests (about 7%).
• Per capita: Texas ~864 arrests per million residents; California ~217 (27th nationally), the LA Times reports.
• June only: California 3,391 arrests, more than Florida that month but still about half of Texas’s June total (LA Times analysis).
• Nationalities most affected (Jan. 20–June 27): Mexico ~40,000; Guatemala ~15,000; Honduras ~12,000; Venezuela ~8,000; El Salvador ~5,000 (El País, CBS).

Why Texas and Florida outpace California

• Local cooperation pipelines
  • A majority of arrests in Texas and nearly half in Florida began in prisons or jails through information sharing and 287(g) agreements.
  • California’s sanctuary rules limit many transfers, pushing ICE toward at‑large arrests instead (LA Times).
• Geography and demographics
  • Border and Southern states host large undocumented communities and carry a heavy enforcement footprint.
  • Analysts at the Migration Policy Institute note ICE concentrates resources where local partners cooperate, making jail pickups faster and more common than field arrests.
• Policy shift in 2025
  • The Trump administration widened interior enforcement compared to 2021–2024.
  • Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons indicated that anyone out of status may face arrest, even as officials say they prioritize violent offenders (El País).

California’s “not the whole story” angle

California’s totals still trail Texas and Florida, but the state saw a sharp rise in 2025:
– 8,460 arrests through June 26—up 212% compared to the five months before President Trump took office (LA Times).
– The national increase in that comparison was 159%, showing California’s rise outpaced the national change.
– California climbed from 30th in arrests per million in February to 10th by June.
– The June surge, including high‑profile Los Angeles operations with protests and a federal troop presence, highlights how at‑large tactics can produce episodic spikes.

Detention, ankle monitors, and data gaps

• TRAC Reports notes ICE is leaning on Texas‑based detention in FY2025.
• The Alternatives to Detention (ATD) program has shrunk under the new policy mix, while ankle monitor use within ATD rose to 25,670 people as of July 26 (up from 21,569 at end‑May).
• TRAC flags opacity in facility listings and capacity figures, complicating independent checks and oversight.

What this means for families and workers

• Risk varies by state
  • In Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, many ICE arrests start with a local jail hold.
  • In sanctuary jurisdictions like California, at‑large arrests at homes or workplaces are more common and often come in waves.
• Per‑capita exposure
  • A person without status in Texas faced about four times the per‑capita arrest exposure versus California through late June (LA Times calculations).
• Countries of origin
  • The 2025 surge disproportionately affects Mexican, Guatemalan, Honduran, Venezuelan, and Salvadoran nationals—shaping consular and attorney needs.

According to VisaVerge.com, these patterns reflect both federal priorities and uneven local cooperation, producing sharp state‑to‑state differences in arrest methods and outcomes.

If an arrest happens: what to expect

Where arrests occur

• Jail/prison transfers
  • In cooperating states, ICE issues detainers and takes custody when the local case ends.
  • These routes account for most Texas arrests and nearly half in Florida.
• At‑large operations
  • In California and other sanctuary areas, ICE arrests people at home, work, or in public, as seen in Los Angeles during June.

After arrest

• Custody
  • ICE may detain someone or place them on ATD, which now relies more on ankle monitors even as the overall ATD population declines.
• Charging and court
  • Most people receive a Notice to Appear (Form I‑862). You can review the form here: https://www.uscis.gov/i-862.

Know your rights and key steps

• Ask to call a lawyer; the government does not provide one for immigration court. Request a pro bono list from the facility or ERO office.
• Ask to contact your consulate.
• Do not sign documents you don’t understand. Request an interpreter and legal advice first.
• Families can:
  • Check immigration court case status through EOIR phone line or online portals.
  • Use ICE’s Detainee Locator to find loved ones.
• For official federal data on arrests, removals, detention, and ATD, see ICE’s ERO statistics page: https://www.ice.gov/statistics. This is the federal dashboard for the United States 🇺🇸.

Critical: If detained, request legal counsel and consular contact immediately. Avoid signing anything without counsel or a trusted interpreter.

How policy changes shape 2025

• Priorities
  • The administration states anyone violating immigration law may be detained; the White House frames state‑by‑state increases since January 20 as public safety gains.
• 287(g) and cooperation
  • More conservative states are expanding jail pipelines. Alabama and Indiana show very high jail‑origin shares, with Texas and Florida also heavily reliant on transfers (LA Times).
• Data transparency
  • ICE’s routine dashboards lag behind near‑real‑time state counts coming from litigation‑released data. CBS, the LA Times, and El País are drawing from that dataset to fill gaps.

Two real‑world scenarios

1. A father in Texas is stopped for a minor traffic offense. The local jail shares his fingerprints. A detainer follows, and ICE picks him up at release. He is moved to a Texas detention center, far from his children’s school.
2. A caregiver in California is the target of an at‑large operation. Agents arrive at dawn. She is issued Form I‑862 and, after a short hold, is placed on ATD with an ankle monitor. She remains with her kids but must report often.

Both face court, but their paths differ because of state policy and operational choices.

Outlook through late 2025

• Texas and Florida are likely to keep leading arrests, driven by 287(g) and steady jail pipelines.
• California may see more sudden surges tied to large field operations rather than constant jail transfers.
• Detention vs. ATD: Expect fuller use of Texas and Florida facilities and a continued tilt toward ankle monitors within a smaller ATD pool.
• Data updates: Watch for new releases from the Deportation Data Project, and check ICE’s ERO portal for official monthly updates.

Key takeaways

• Where you live matters. Texas and Florida show higher arrest rates and more jail‑based transfers; California shows episodic at‑large surges.
• Know your plan. Keep attorney contacts handy, inform family how to find you, and avoid signing forms you don’t understand.
• Track your case. Use EOIR tools, the Detainee Locator, and review your Form I‑862 carefully.
• Follow official data. Check ICE’s statistics page and pair it with reputable media analyses for state‑level trends.