Report Finds 1 in 5 Immigrants Leave Canada Within 25 Years

(CANADA) A new study warning that about one in five immigrants leaves Canada within 25 years is sharpening debate over how well the country holds on to the very people it works so hard to attract. Released in November 2025 by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, the report draws on tax data and population records up to 2021 and suggests that the country’s long‑standing reputation as a permanent home may be weaker than many assume, especially for highly skilled workers.

Key headline findings

The analysis finds that roughly 18–20% of newcomers exit Canada within a quarter-century, and most of those departures happen much earlier. According to the report, the majority of immigrants who leave do so in their first five years after arrival. That early exit pattern matters because it overlaps with the period when people are still trying to build careers, form community ties, and decide whether long-term life in Canada feels realistic.

Among the most striking findings:
– Economic immigrants are the most likely group to leave, despite federal policy favoring them in recent years.
– Refugees and protected persons are the least likely to go, suggesting those who came for safety are more likely to stay and put down roots.
– People with advanced degrees (e.g., doctorates) and those working in business, finance, IT, and engineering are more likely to depart than newcomers with lower education or skill levels.

Data snapshot

Why the patterns matter

The pattern that highly skilled and highly educated newcomers are also more likely to leave raises difficult policy questions. Canada’s points-based selection system is designed to attract talent to build a knowledge economy. But if the people who score highest are more prone to move on, the long-term payoff from current selection rules may be lower than forecast.

Health care is a clear example of this tension. In 2021, 36% of immigrant health care workers had left Canada before reaching the five-year mark, according to the report. That figure is especially notable in a country struggling with hospital staffing gaps, family doctor shortages, and aging populations outside major cities. When more than a third of newly arrived health professionals depart so quickly, it undercuts recruitment drives and forces provinces and health authorities to restart hiring cycles.

Regional variation and local impacts

The report highlights sharp regional differences in retention:
– Atlantic Canada and many rural communities face special difficulty keeping newcomers.
– Immigrants arriving through targeted pilot programs or provincial streams may later move to larger cities or other countries if jobs are limited or local supports are thin.
– For small towns relying on a few families for local growth, the loss of even a handful of newcomers can:
– Stall school enrollments
– Slow business plans
– Erode public confidence in immigration programs

Economic and labour-market implications

Although the forecasted number of departures (e.g., >20,000 from the 2026 intake by 2031) may sound modest nationally, it represents thousands of families, trained workers, and potential business owners exiting the tax base and local communities. For sectors already facing tight labour markets, even small shifts can push employers back into shortage.

Some employers and analysts worry that sudden drops in intake could leave them short-staffed at a time when many Canadians are retiring. Others argue that better planning and stronger settlement supports are the right responses, rather than large cuts to intake.

Causes and lived experience

The report does not directly identify all causes of departure beyond the patterns it tracks, but its findings are consistent with long-standing complaints from newcomers:
– Slow foreign credential recognition
– Career barriers and stalled professional progress
– Social isolation

Examples cited in public discourse include highly trained engineers driving taxis or doctors waiting years for residency seats. For economic immigrants who moved to Canada to advance careers, stalled progress can quickly outweigh the appeal of long-term stability.

The Institute for Canadian Citizenship is calling for a comprehensive talent retention strategy to encourage highly skilled immigrants to stay, with better support around career growth, recognition of foreign credentials, and family integration. Without such a plan, the institute warns, Canada may keep losing exactly the people it is trying hardest to bring in.

Government response and policy context

The federal government has faced pressure to show that rising immigration targets translate into lasting population and workforce growth rather than brief bursts of arrivals followed by churn. According to the 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, Ottawa plans to:
– Reduce temporary resident volumes
– Bring overall immigration levels to less than 5% of the population by 2027
– Give more weighting to people already in Canada on work or study permits when awarding permanent residence, arguing these residents have already started to settle and may have higher chances of staying

Officials emphasize balancing population growth with absorptive capacity—housing, schools, and health care—and promote settlement services, provincial partnerships, and regional immigration programs as tools to improve retention. Official information on these policies and annual levels is posted on the federal immigration portal at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, which serves as the main reference for newcomers and employers.

What this means going forward

The report serves as a reminder that raw intake numbers can hide a quieter story of exits that only become clear many years later. As Canada moves into the next phase of its immigration debate, the key questions are:
1. How many newcomers remain after five, ten, or twenty-five years?
2. Can Canada convert early arrivals into long-term residents who feel rooted enough to stay?
3. What specific retention measures—career support, credential recognition, regional incentives, family integration—will be most effective?

These questions will shape whether Canada’s immigration strategy delivers durable population and workforce growth, or whether the country continues to lose a significant share of the very people it aims to attract.