(UNITED STATES) — U.S. demographers and budget analysts tracked a Record Number of Americans Leaving the United States in 2025 as net migration turned negative, a reversal not seen in decades and one that forecasters expect to stay elevated into 2026.
The shift drew attention because it arrived alongside a sharp drop in arrivals, changing the net balance of people coming to and departing from the United States at a time when global mobility remains high.
Negative net migration in 2025 meant more people left than arrived, with a deficit of approximately 150,000 people that analysts tied to weaker inflows and rising outflows, including about 150,000 Americans relocating abroad.
Migration measures in this debate capture different things, and the distinction shapes the headlines. One set of figures focuses on U.S. citizens moving overseas, while another tracks net international migration, the balance of inflows and outflows across the border regardless of citizenship or legal status.
In 2023, approximately 6 million people immigrated to the United States, drawn by economic opportunities, education, and family reunification. By 2025, that figure declined to around 2.6–2.7 million as outflows climbed.
Those two movements together matter because they can make net migration swing quickly, even if the United States remains a top destination for immigrants, students, and job seekers.
Time windows also differ across major producers. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates include mid-year measurements, while other institutions publish calendar-year projections built on their own assumptions.
The 2025 downturn followed a period of unusually high net gains. U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates show net international migration (NIM) peaked at 2.7 million in 2024 before declining to 1.3 million for the July 1, 2024–June 30, 2025 period.
Census projections pointed to a further drop to 321,000 by July 2026, driven by reduced immigration and increased emigration.
A negative reading remains uncommon in modern U.S. population accounting, and the latest estimate revived comparisons with the last time the United States recorded a similar break in the pattern.
The historic parallel cited in the data was 1935, during the Great Depression, when over 100,000 Americans sought opportunities abroad, such as in Soviet factories.
Competing projections show why net international migration can look different depending on methodology. Net international migration refers to inflows minus outflows, so it can turn negative if arrivals fall while departures rise, even if each component carries its own uncertainty.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects net immigration at 410,000 for 2025 and rising slightly to around 870,000 lawful permanent residents plus eligible applicants by 2026.
CBO revised those projections downward from prior estimates by 1.6 million for 2025 and 1.0 million for 2026, reflecting updated assumptions about how many people would enter and remain.
Brookings Institution analysis produced a different range for 2025 net migration, estimating a span between –295,000 and –10,000.
Brookings contrasted that with CBO’s +400,000 and attributed the gap to assumptions about deportation and voluntary departures, including Brookings estimates of 310,000–315,000 removals and 210,000–405,000 voluntary departures beyond normal levels.
Projections for 2026 also diverged. Brookings projected net migration from –925,000 to +185,000 amid low border entries of 26,000–53,000 and potential voluntary outflows up to 575,000.
Census, in its Vintage 2025 estimates, warned of negative net migration not seen in over 50 years if trends hold, even as other forecasters assumed stabilization.
Behind the topline figures, researchers pointed to a set of pressures that help explain why Americans Leaving for overseas destinations drew more notice in 2025 and why analysts expect the outflow to remain elevated into 2026.
Cost pressures stood out across accounts of household decision-making. The cost of housing, healthcare, education, and general living expenses in the U.S. has surged in recent years, pushing some retirees, remote workers, and young professionals to lower-cost countries.
Analysts also cited safety and quality-of-life considerations, including concerns about crime rates and social unrest that prompted some families and retirees to look for more stable environments abroad.
Political polarization appeared in the mix as well. The political climate, especially following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, contributed to a sense of instability for some households, with policy uncertainty influencing relocation decisions.
Some journalists and commentators coined the term “Donald Dash” to describe the rise in Americans leaving the country during the current political era.
Remote work and digital nomad pathways featured prominently in descriptions of the new mobility, with telecommuters and cost-conscious professionals using overseas stays to extend savings or stretch pay.
Retirement lifestyle preferences also shaped destination choices, as some Americans sought climate and daily living costs they viewed as more manageable than at home.
Even with the heightened attention, analysts cautioned that the “who” behind departures depends on what counts as leaving. Public discussion often blends U.S. citizens relocating abroad with noncitizens departing due to enforcement actions or personal choice, which can distort comparisons.
In the same period that Americans relocating abroad became more visible, data indicated the U.S. government deported around 674,000 individuals in recent years, while roughly 2.2 million chose to leave voluntarily.
Those departures refer to noncitizens and sit alongside the U.S.-citizen outflow, but the categories are not the same and do not move for the same reasons.
Estimates of Americans living abroad also vary widely, reflecting measurement limits and different data sources. Some estimates suggest that 40 million to 90 million Americans currently live abroad, pointing to long-established expatriate communities.
Another set of estimates put the U.S.-citizen population abroad at 4–9 million, based on indicators such as residence permits, property purchases, and enrollments.
Destination-country records and administrative data can capture parts of the picture, but they can miss Americans who do not register with U.S. authorities, move frequently, or hold multiple statuses.
Tax filings, residence permits, and local registration systems differ by country, which can widen the spread between high and low estimates without resolving which count best reflects long-term residence.
Where Americans are going reflects practical trade-offs as well as preference. Europe repeatedly appeared among commonly cited destinations, with Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the U.K. drawing Americans for lifestyle and social systems, along with cost and access considerations.
The distribution across Europe includes both major hubs and smaller countries, and analysts tied some of the movement to telework and to retirees seeking a different pace of life.
Latin America remained prominent, led by Mexico and followed by Costa Rica and Colombia, destinations cited for affordability and climate and for proximity that can ease family ties and travel.
Mexico also stood out in specific concentration figures used in one set of estimates, which put 1.6 million Americans there.
Asia and other regions drew digital nomads and professionals seeking flexible living arrangements, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia appearing frequently in the list of destinations.
Canada remained a nearby option in the same set of estimates, which put 250,000 Americans there, reflecting both geographic proximity and the appeal of a familiar cultural environment.
Across destinations, language, visa pathways, healthcare access, and the ability to maintain U.S. ties shaped where moves became more common, especially for remote workers and retirees.
The rise in Americans relocating abroad added a new dimension to immigration and mobility debates inside the United States, because net figures influence public narratives even when the underlying flows move for different reasons.
Shifting U.S. migration dynamics can also affect administrative workload and planning, as more cross-border movement can increase demand for documentation, status updates, and compliance support across systems.
At the same time, bidirectional mobility does not imply weaker interest in the United States from abroad. The trend sits alongside continuing demand for U.S. visa pathways tied to work and study, including H-1B and F-1, even as some U.S. citizens look overseas.
Families weighing dual citizenship or residency decisions face practical friction points tied to timelines and paperwork, and increased mobility can expand the number of people managing obligations in more than one country.
Broader economic measures also shifted during the period of declining net inflows. The foreign-born population fell from 53.3 million (15.8%) in January 2025 to 51.9 million (15.4%) by June.
Immigrants also comprised 19% of the labor force, down from 20%, a change analysts cited in assessing how migration affects the workforce.
Looking toward 2026, institutions offered a range of net migration outlooks that nonetheless pointed in the same general direction: lower net gains than the recent peak, with the risk of further weakness if departures stay high and inflows remain subdued.
Census projections to July 2026 implied continued deceleration in net international migration, while CBO projected a higher level of net immigration by 2026 than the mid-year Census figure.
Brookings projected a wide band that stretched from net losses to net gains in 2026, reflecting uncertainty over border entries and the scale of voluntary outflows.
Analysts linked the net migration trajectory to population growth and the labor force, and Brookings and Dallas Fed analysts, including Pia Orrenius, pointed to U.S. reliance on high immigration for growth as net inflows slowed and Americans Leaving became more visible in the data.
Record Number of Americans Leave United States as Cost and Safety Concerns Rise
The United States is experiencing a major demographic shift as 2025 data reveals negative net migration. With roughly 150,000 Americans moving abroad and a sharp decline in new arrivals, the country faces its first such deficit since the Great Depression. Key factors include rising domestic costs, safety concerns, and political instability, with popular destinations including Mexico, Portugal, and Spain, impacting future labor force and population growth projections.
