Public Belief About UK Immigration vs Data: It Has Declined Sharply

(UNITED KINGDOM) Public belief that immigration to the UK is spiralling upward is sharply at odds with the latest official data, which show net migration has more than halved from its recent peak, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The numbers, covering the year to June 2024 and updated emigration data to June 2025, point to a marked cooling in overall inflows even as asylum claims and small boat crossings draw intense media and political attention.

Headline figures: net migration has fallen

Net migration — the difference between the number of people coming to live in the country and those leaving — stood at 431,000 in the year ending June 2024, the ONS reports. That compares with a record 906,000 in 2023 and 745,000 in 2022, meaning net migration has fallen by more than half from its high point in little more than a year.

While the latest figure remains above the pre-pandemic range of roughly 200,000 to 300,000, it is no longer at record levels and reflects a clear downward turn.

What is driving the fall?

The headline fall is being driven above all by a sharp drop in non‑EU arrivals. According to the latest release on international migration from the Office for National Statistics, non‑EU immigration fell by 32% in 2024, down from 1,122,000 people in 2023 to 766,000 in 2024.

Most of these arrivals still come to the UK for work, study or to join family members, but tighter rules on visas and dependants are now clearly feeding through into the totals.

Work and study remain central

• Around one third of non‑EU arrivals are international students.
• 15% come primarily for work.
• 19% arrive as dependants of work migrants.

The government has introduced stricter conditions on both groups, including curbs on most students bringing family members and changes to health and care visas. The closure of the care worker route, in particular, has removed a channel that previously supplied large numbers of overseas staff to struggling social care services during and after the pandemic.

Emigration is rising too

Behind the headline net migration figure sits another important shift: more people are leaving. Emigration from the UK reached 693,000 in the year ending June 2025, an increase of 43,000 on the previous year.

That rise in departures further reduces net migration and means the country is now losing more residents each year than during the immediate post‑Brexit period. For sectors facing acute labour shortages — such as social care, hospitality and agriculture — the combination of fewer arrivals and higher departures is already being felt.

Asylum and irregular arrivals: rising but still a smaller share

Asylum and irregular arrivals are certainly increasing, but they still make up a modest share of all those moving to the UK.

• Asylum claims reached 111,000 in the year to June 2025, a 14% rise on the previous year. The Home Office says most of these claims are from people who travelled through irregular routes, including small boats.
• Small boat crossings: 46,000 small boat arrivals in the year to September 2025, up on the previous year but still below the 2022 peak.

Although these journeys get intensive media coverage and political focus, in raw numbers they account for only a small slice of annual immigration to the UK. Each boat, however, carries a powerful political charge that ensures disproportionate attention.

“Net migration to the UK has dropped by more than half since 2023. Immigration is down, not up. The rise in asylum claims is real, but it’s a small part of the bigger picture.”

Public perception vs official data

Polls show that most Britons say immigration is rising, and many believe numbers are out of control. Analysis by VisaVerge.com suggests the steady focus on small boats in the English Channel, combined with hard‑edged campaign rhetoric, has created a strong impression of constant growth in immigration even as the underlying numbers fall.

Many voters experience immigration at a local level — the new language they hear on the bus, the queue at the GP surgery, the extra portable classrooms at a nearby school. Those daily impressions are powerful and may not track the national numbers from the ONS.

When politicians and media focus almost entirely on asylum and irregular routes, they can reinforce the sense of rising chaos even when total immigration is moving in the opposite direction.

Political implications and responses

For ministers, the latest ONS figures pose a complex political challenge:

• On one hand, the data suggest recent policy changes are having an effect: overall immigration is falling, non‑EU inflows are down, and more people are leaving.
• On the other hand, many voters who backed tougher controls still say they see little change, judging the system by stories of overcrowded asylum accommodation, legal disputes and tragedies at sea.

Officials stress that the government’s plans are long term and that shifts in net migration will take time to show up in everyday life.

Supporters of tighter controls argue the decline is overdue and say the country must adjust more quickly to better train and employ local domestic workers. They point to pre‑pandemic levels as a more sustainable benchmark and claim that lower inflows will ease pressure on housing, the NHS and schools.

Critics counter that the UK’s ageing population and widespread staff shortages mean the country still needs a steady stream of newcomers. They warn that sudden shifts driven by political timetables rather than economic need can be damaging.

Practical effects on individuals and services

For people directly affected by rule changes, the statistics translate into personal decisions and institutional shifts:

• Prospective students must consider whether they can bring a partner or child when weighing offers from UK universities.
• Care homes that once relied on overseas staff are rethinking how many beds they can keep open.
• Families hoping to reunite in the UK face greater uncertainty about income thresholds and sponsorship rules.

In each case, the national story of falling net migration is made up of thousands of individual choices shaped by policy shifts on visas and routes.

ONS caveats and the outlook

The ONS, which has worked to improve the timeliness and accuracy of its migration estimates since the pandemic, stresses that the latest data remain provisional and will be revised as more information comes in.

Officials are confident about the direction of travel: net migration is no longer at record highs, and the peak of 2023 now looks like an exception linked to one‑off factors such as:

• post‑Covid reopening,
• backlogs in visa processing, and
• special schemes for people fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong.

The newer figures suggest the UK is settling into a different phase, with lower inflows and higher outflows than in the immediate post‑Brexit years.

Conclusion: a wide gap between perception and numbers

For now, the gap between public belief and official statistics is likely to remain wide. Immigration to the UK is falling in aggregate terms, even as some of its most visible and politically sensitive elements become more prominent.

The raw numbers from the Office for National Statistics will continue to feed fierce arguments at Westminster, but for many people the daily sense that immigration is rising may prove harder to shift than the data itself.