O-1 Visas Hit Record High as H-1B Costs Drive Talent Abroad

A major FY 2027 inflection point arrives on February 27, 2026: DHS’s new weighted H-1B selection rule takes effect ahead of the March 2026 registration season. At the same time, O-1 Visa demand is rising alongside record-high issuance levels, as employers and candidates seek an uncapped option.

This update explains what changes for the FY 2027 H-1B lottery, what happens after selection, and why more teams are running an H-1B + O-1 strategy in parallel.

📅 Key Date: February 27, 2026 is the effective date for the weighted H-1B selection rule for the FY 2027 cap season.

Overview: O-1 Issuance Rising as H-1B Costs and Uncertainty Grow

The H-1B remains the default U.S. work visa for many specialty occupation roles. Yet planning assumptions have shifted for FY 2027 as costs rose sharply for some filings and the selection method is changing.

In parallel, the O-1 has become a serious “Plan A” for certain profiles. The O-1 is uncapped, can be filed year-round, and often feels more predictable than a lottery. It can also support founders and specialized talent when evidence is strong.

USCIS data points to the direction of travel. In FY 2024, USCIS received 20,669 O-1A petitions, with an approval rate of about 94.6%. Those figures reflect strong outcomes, not guaranteed results.

For readers weighing options, start with a clear definition of fit. The O-1 typically works best for high-achievement professionals with third-party proof. A helpful overview is this O-1 alternative explainer.

Why the H-1B Path Is Becoming Less Attractive

Three forces are pushing behavior in FY 2027: higher total cost, lottery risk, and rule volatility.

First, cost changes affect sponsorship appetite. When the total bill rises, some employers reduce filings or limit roles to “must-have” hires. That shift changes candidate leverage, especially for early-career workers.

Second, lottery risk now includes a weighting concept. If selection odds vary by wage level, candidates at Level I wages may face weaker odds than higher-paid roles. Many new graduates start at Level I.

Third, timing risk increases without careful budgeting. Premium processing can shorten USCIS adjudication time, but it does not fix cap selection risk. Administrative fees can also reshape employer timelines.

One driver getting employer attention is the $100,000 H-1B fee for certain cases. More background is in this fee impact analysis.

FY 2027 Timeline: What to Expect for the Cap Season

FY 2027 employment starts October 1, 2026. USCIS has not posted the final FY 2027 registration dates as of January 16, 2026. The timeline below reflects the typical cap season cadence.

Next year’s projected cadence (FY 2028) is similar. Registration is likely in March 2027, with an October 1, 2027 start date.

How FY 2027 Compares to the Prior Year

The biggest comparison point is not a single selection percentage. It is the structure of the selection system.

FY 2026 ran under the beneficiary-centric approach. That means one registration per person, even if multiple employers attempted entries. It reduced duplicate-entry gaming and tightened fraud screening.

For FY 2027, DHS is also moving to a weighted selection approach tied to wage levels. In practical terms, it can favor higher-wage offers and disadvantage entry-level roles that match Level I wage bands.

For a deeper discussion of how rules affect outcomes, see this global changes overview.

What Happens Next After Selection, and After Non-Selection

If you are selected

Employer next steps:

1. Confirm the role still qualifies as an H-1B specialty occupation.
2. Lock the SOC code and worksite location for the Labor Condition Application.
3. Offer at least the higher of prevailing wage or actual wage.

Prevailing wage levels matter more under a wage-weighted concept. Level I roles often draw extra USCIS scrutiny, especially when duties look generic.

Employee next steps:

1. Ask for the SOC code and offered wage level.
2. Confirm the job duties match the degree field.
3. Keep copies of the LCA and final I-129 package.

If you are not selected

A non-selection is not the end of work authorization planning. It is a timing problem that needs a structured pivot.

• Cap-exempt H-1B roles at universities, nonprofits, and affiliated research entities
• O-1 for extraordinary ability profiles
• L-1 for intracompany transferees, when abroad employment history fits
• TN for eligible Canadian and Mexican professionals
• E-2 for treaty investors, when nationality and investment facts fit
• Longer-term immigrant options like EB-1 or EB-2 NIW, if evidence supports it

What Is the O-1 Visa and Who Qualifies?

The O-1 is for individuals with extraordinary ability and sustained acclaim. It is not a lottery. It is an evidence case.

Two common tracks:

• O-1A: sciences, education, business, and athletics
• O-1B: arts, motion picture, and television

Adjudicators look for a record that stands out against peers. Evidence is weighed as a whole and is not only about meeting a minimum count.

Common evidence buckets include awards, published material about you, original contributions, authorship, judging, critical roles, high salary, and memberships. Strong O-1 filings also explain impact with third-party proof.

Practical guidance on building evidence is covered in O-1 evidence tips and these O-1 requirements.

Official Policy Landscape Driving the Shift

Two policy signals shape FY 2027 decisions.

Weighted H-1B selection. DHS finalized a wage-level weighting method, with the rule effective February 27, 2026. Higher wage levels receive more weight than Level I.

Expanded vetting and consistency demands. USCIS has emphasized fraud screening and documentation review. That affects both H-1B and O-1 filings. Employers should expect more requests for evidence when duties, wages, or worksite facts do not align.

There is also continuing interest in new talent pathways. Treat them as concept-stage unless and until USCIS publishes final filing instructions and eligibility rules.

Implications for Students, Founders, and High-Impact Fields

International students. Weighted selection can reward higher-wage offers. That may push earlier career positioning, stronger job matching, and clearer duty descriptions. STEM OPT planning becomes more central.

Tech founders. O-1A can work when the company structure supports independent oversight. Evidence often includes traction, funding, product metrics, press, and letters from independent experts.

AI and critical tech. Adjudicators respond best to measurable impact. Claims should be supported by independent publications, patents, deployments, or adoption metrics. Generic “AI engineer” narratives underperform.

Practical Takeaways and Planning Tips

A workable FY 2027 strategy often uses parallel tracks.

When O-1 can be primary: You have third-party evidence, public impact, or a clear record of high-level contributions. You need year-round filing flexibility.

When H-1B still makes sense: The job is a classic specialty occupation with a clean degree match. The employer can support wages and compliance, and timing fits.

Parallel plan: Start O-1 evidence assembly now, while also preparing H-1B registration in March. Treat the H-1B as upside, not the only path.

Employer checklist items:

• Set SOC code and wage level early
• Budget for fees and possible RFEs
• Keep a clean public access file, and pay the required wage

Employee checklist items:

• Verify job-title-to-duties alignment
• Track OPT end dates and travel constraints
• Save copies of filings and approval notices

Official Sources and Credible References

Primary rules appear in different places. The Federal Register publishes final regulations. USCIS provides operational guidance through the Policy Manual and form instructions. Proclamations and executive actions can change fees or procedures, but implementation details matter.

Check whether a change is proposed, final, or already effective. Then confirm the filing workflow on USCIS pages before you commit to a strategy.

📋 Official Resources:

• H-1B Program: uscis.gov/h-1b-specialty-occupations
• Cap Season: uscis.gov/h-1b-cap-season
• Prevailing Wages: flcdatacenter.com