Noem’s Claim That 1.6M Undocumented Immigrants Left the U.S. Lacks Evidence

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem says “1.6M immigrants” without legal status have left the United States in recent months. As of August 14, 2025, there is no authoritative evidence backing that claim. Federal agencies have not published any report confirming departures on that scale, and major outlets have not verified it.

What is clear: the White House is pushing the largest enforcement drive in years under the Trump Administration’s Mass Deportation Policy, but available numbers don’t match Noem’s figure.

Policy actions driving enforcement

Since President Trump took office in January 2025, officials have announced “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” Key policy steps include:

• Internal targets setting minimum 1,800 detentions per day nationwide for ICE field offices as of January 25, 2025, a rate far above recent years.
• A January 22, 2025 Department of Justice memorandum authorizing federal employees from the U.S. Marshals Service, DEA, ATF, and Bureau of Prisons to help DHS locate and arrest people who lack legal status — widening manpower behind immigration enforcement to speed arrests.
• On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA). The law directs $45 billion through 2029 to expand detention space, including family detention and indefinite detention of children and families. That funding roughly quadruples ICE’s annual detention budget and signals a long-term commitment to larger-scale custody operations.
• The OBBBA also tightens bond eligibility, making release from detention harder.

The administration has also:

• Expanded expedited removal (deportation without a judge in many cases).
• Pressed states and local agencies to share records such as motor vehicle databases, with penalties for non-cooperation.
• Pursued orders aiming to restrict birthright citizenship — some of which face legal challenges and temporary court blocks that could slow or halt parts of the plan.

Data and verification

While arrests and detention have increased, official releases do not show 1.6 million people leaving the country in 2025.

• For context: ICE averaged about 415 arrests per day in 2023.
• At the new 2025 detention target (1,800 per day), the rough annual volume would be about 657,000 detentions — a dramatic rise, but still far below 1.6M.

Important distinctions and limits:

• Detentions do not equal removals. Many cases take time because people can seek relief, ask for bond, or appeal.
• Logistical and legal limits — including availability of flights and travel documents — shape how many actual removals occur.
• Courts are reviewing key enforcement measures; court orders can slow deportations.

As of mid‑August, no DHS, ICE, or CBP report confirms the 1.6 million figure. Analysis by VisaVerge.com likewise finds federal agencies have not published totals matching Noem’s claim.

Advocacy groups and bar associations argue the new approach harms due process by pushing more people into fast-track procedures without lawyers. The administration frames the crackdown as a public safety measure and cites unverified claims of widespread criminal activity by undocumented immigrants. Ongoing legal fights will decide how far the policy can go.

For official enforcement updates and agency information on arrests and removals, see the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations page: https://www.ice.gov/ero

On-the-ground effects for families and workers

People without legal status now face a higher risk of arrest at home, at work, and in public. Key impacts include:

• Prior removal orders or pending immigration cases can make people targets for detention under the new daily quotas.
• With bond more limited, many may remain in custody longer.
• The OBBBA’s support for indefinite family detention raises child welfare concerns, including trauma and long-term mental health risks that pediatric experts caution against.
• Expedited removal can send someone out of the country without a judge’s hearing, increasing the chance of wrongful removal — especially for people with fear-of-return claims who lack quick access to counsel.
• Paperwork mistakes now carry higher stakes: USCIS has broader discretion to deny family-based green card petitions without warning, which can trigger enforcement actions if a person falls out of status.

Practical considerations and resources:

• Families working on green cards should double-check filings and keep proof organized. Key forms include:
  • Form I-130 (Petition for Alien Relative): https://www.uscis.gov/i-130
  • Form I-485 (Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status): https://www.uscis.gov/i-485
• If applying for asylum, be aware timelines and interviews may move quickly while detention increases. The asylum application is Form I-589: https://www.uscis.gov/i-589
• Visitors and some business travelers from countries with high overstay rates may face visa bonds up to $15,000. Bonds are refundable if the traveler departs on time, but they add cost and complexity.

States and cities also feel the pressure:

• Federal agencies are seeking more access to local databases; the government warns of penalties for jurisdictions that won’t share.
• These moves raise privacy and civil rights concerns and could discourage immigrant families from obtaining driver’s licenses or updating addresses.
• Employers that rely on immigrant labor face disruptions as arrests grow.

For people at risk, basic steps to reduce harm:

1. Carry copies of key documents, including proof of pending applications and receipts.
2. Create a family plan for child care in case a parent is detained.
3. Save contact information for a trusted attorney or legal aid group; ask about emergency representation.
4. If served with a Notice to Appear, show it to a lawyer promptly and track court dates.

Community advocates report hotlines and rapid response teams are busy as arrests grow. Faith groups and schools say children express more fear when parents are detained.

The central question: scale and transparency

Enforcement actions have increased, but with no official confirmation of “1.6M immigrants” leaving the country, a significant gap remains between public rhetoric and published data. Court outcomes, logistics, and agency capacity will determine whether detention surges translate into sustained, verified removals over time.

Officials have promised more numbers later in the year, but advocates call for improved transparency now. Without regular reporting on arrests, detentions, removals, and voluntary departures, claims like Noem’s risk spreading faster than the verifiable facts.