Libya‑to‑Belarus Flight Surge Sparks EU Eastern Border Migration Alarm

(MINSK) The European Union is again on alert at its eastern borders after a sharp rise in air links between Libya and Belarus in 2025. Officials fear a replay of past attempts to push migrants toward the EU.

The European Commission is probing recent flights by Belarusian carrier Belavia between Benghazi and Minsk, citing their “frequency and nature” and possible coordination. Investigations focus on whether these links feed irregular migration.

What’s new and why it matters

• Belavia flight counts: 2 flights in May, 5 in June, and 4 in July 2025 between Benghazi (eastern Libya) and Minsk (Belarus), according to Commission tracking. Officials see patterns that echo the 2021 crisis.
• Key actors: General Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya, is a central figure in the suspected network. European officials say Russia and Belarus may be using migration as a pressure tool.
• Regional context: VisaVerge.com reports that concerns include both the direct flights and the broader regional picture, with Libya’s routes to Italy and Greece already under strain.

The numbers officials are watching

While overall irregular entries fell in early 2025, several routes are surging:

• Italy: Over 27,000 people arrived from Libya between January and June 2025, nearly double the same period in 2024.
• Greece (Crete): More than 7,000 arrivals, about three times last year.
• EU eastern land borders: About 5,000 illegal crossings in the first seven months of 2025.
• Central Mediterranean route: Still the busiest, making up 39% of all irregular arrivals, with an 80% rise in arrivals from Libya to Italy compared with 2024.
• Overall trend: Irregular crossings into the EU fell by 20% in the first half of 2025, to 75,900, driven by drops on the Western Balkans, eastern land borders, and West African routes.

These mixed trends show pressure moving to the Central Mediterranean and new Libya–Crete paths, even as other routes cool.

How the EU is responding

• European Commission
  • Investigating the Belavia flights and warning against any use of migration as part of hybrid warfare, referencing the 2021 Belarus border crisis.
• Frontex
  • Stepped up deployments: placing about 3,000 officers across missions.
  • Opened a new command center in Estonia.
  • Boosting risk analysis, biometrics, and cooperation with third countries.
• Security measures by states
  • Several EU states bordering Belarus and Russia have reinforced fences and patrols.
  • In December, the EU directed €170 million to strengthen borders with Belarus and Russia.
• Frontline concerns
  • Italian and Greek officials say arrivals are stretching services.
  • Greece also warns about Ankara’s contacts with Haftar and plans to reopen Turkey’s consulate in Benghazi, seeing risks for Greek interests.

The Belarus–Libya link and suspected coordination

• Belarus: President Alexander Lukashenko was accused in 2021 of using migrants to pressure the EU. Current flights renew those fears.
• Libya: General Haftar’s ties with Russia raise alarms about broader coordination from North Africa to the EU’s doorstep.
• Russia: European officials and analysts point to Moscow’s influence in both Libya and Belarus and say migration flows may be part of a wider strategy tied to the war in Ukraine.

Officials describe this as hybrid pressure: a mix of air links, border strain, and political messaging aimed at dividing EU states and distracting from other crises.

Human impact on the ground

Behind the numbers are people taking dangerous journeys.

Sea crossings from Libya to Italy remain deadly. Humanitarian groups report deaths at sea and worry that tougher borders can push families onto even riskier paths.

When policies shift quickly, people on the move may face unclear rules, longer waits, and higher chances of detention.

The human cost remains high: dangerous sea journeys and uneven access to asylum increase the risk for vulnerable people.

What happens after arrival in the EU

Processes vary by country, but the core steps generally include:

1. Arrival: People typically reach Italy or Greece after leaving Libya, often on unsafe boats.
2. Screening: National authorities, with Frontex support, carry out identity checks, collect biometrics, and assess risks.
3. Asylum application: People may ask for asylum. Some states have limited this right at specific borders, citing security concerns.
4. Detention or relocation: Depending on the country and current rules, people may be detained, relocated within the EU, or returned.

Note: Decisions depend on national law, EU rules, and current security orders. Access to asylum can change at short notice in some border zones.

Stakeholders and their roles

• General Khalifa Haftar: De facto leader in eastern Libya; seen as key to the flight pipeline and linked to Russia.
• Alexander Lukashenko: Belarusian president; accused of past border pressure tactics and suspected of similar moves now.
• Vladimir Putin: Russian leader; viewed by EU officials and analysts as shaping events in both Libya and Belarus.
• EU institutions: The European Commission, Frontex, and national governments in Italy, Greece, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia shape the response.

Tensions and legal questions

• Some EU states have tightened borders and, in certain cases, limited access to asylum processing. This raises concerns about compliance with international conventions and the humanitarian duty to protect people in danger.
• Greek officials also point to regional disputes, including a contested maritime deal involving Libya, and say Turkey’s outreach to Haftar affects Greek security.

What to watch next

• Continued monitoring of Belavia flights between Benghazi and Minsk.
• Whether even a small number of coordinated flights triggers a larger build-up at EU crossings, as seen in 2021.
• Shifts in border policies by frontline states if arrivals rise again in late summer and autumn.
• The wider geopolitical context, including the war in Ukraine and talks between Russia and the United States.

Practical guidance for people on the move

• Expect screening, identity checks, and fingerprints if you arrive in Italy or Greece.
• You may ask for asylum, but rules can change at certain borders. Some countries have introduced temporary limits, citing security risks.
• Be ready to show any identity documents and explain your route and reasons for seeking protection.
• If detained or relocated, ask authorities about your rights and next steps.

For official EU policy information and updates on border management and asylum rules, visit the European Commission’s Migration and Home Affairs page: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs

Bottom line

• Flights: Belavia’s rising Benghazi–Minsk flights in May–July 2025 are under EU scrutiny.
• Flows: Arrivals from Libya to Italy and Crete are up sharply, even as total irregular entries across the EU fell by 20% to 75,900 in the first half of 2025.
• Response: The Commission and Frontex are scaling up oversight and deployments. Some states are hardening borders near Belarus and Russia.
• Risk: Officials fear deliberate pressure using migration, with Libya and Belarus as key hubs and Russia’s backing suspected.
• People: The human cost remains high, with dangerous sea journeys and uneven access to asylum in some areas.

The situation is fluid. Investigations continue, and policy may tighten or ease as numbers shift. For now, pressure points center on Libya’s link to Italy and Greece and the growing air bridge to Belarus.