(CANADA) Canada’s Liberal government is on track to miss its promised lower immigration targets for 2025, with both Permanent Resident Intake and temporary entries running above the caps set last fall. By the end of July, Canada had accepted 246,300 new permanent residents, putting the country on pace for about 422,000 by year-end, compared with an official target of 395,000.
Temporary entries tell a similar story: the cap of 82,000 for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) has already been passed, with 105,195 permits issued in the first six months of 2025. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the current data and pace suggest the gap between targets and actual intake will persist through the rest of the year.
Current pace and context
The government introduced lower immigration targets on October 24, 2024, promising a “reset” to reduce pressure on housing, healthcare, and local services. Yet as of August 27, 2025, the numbers point the other way.
- The current monthly pace for permanent residents—about 35,180 per month—would put the country nearly 7% above its 2025 goal.
- That pace is 62% higher than in 2014, and beyond almost any point in the past century.
For a government that said it would cool the system, the heat is still on.
Temporary residents and NPR share
Temporary resident volumes have shifted but not dropped enough to meet the plan. International student entries fell sharply in early 2025—149,860 study permits were issued in the first half of the year, down from 245,000 over the same period in 2024—yet overall temporary numbers remain high.
- Non-permanent residents (NPRs) made up 7.1% of the population in Q2 2025, only slightly lower than 7.4% at the end of 2024.
- Ottawa aims to bring that share down to 5% by the end of 2027, but experts say the outflows needed to reach that goal are not happening fast enough.
Policy changes overview
The Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027 set lower immigration targets for both permanent and temporary residents for the first time.
Permanent resident targets:
– 395,000 for 2025
– 380,000 for 2026
– 365,000 for 2027
Temporary total targets:
– 673,650 in 2025
– 516,600 in 2026
– 543,600 in 2027
Francophone target outside Quebec:
– 8.5% in 2025
– 9.5% in 2026
– 10% in 2027
Officials said the cuts were needed to protect “community capacity,” meaning housing, transit, schooling, and healthcare. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated the new approach could reduce Canada’s housing gap by 534,000 units by 2030. However, the PBO warned these gains depend on lower inflows and higher outflows of temporary residents—if departures don’t rise as expected, pressure on the market could remain heavy even under lower immigration targets.
Criticism, transparency, and data issues
Criticism has mounted as 2025 has unfolded. Commentators point to federal intake data that run well above the plan and raise alarms about transparency.
- Ottawa stopped publishing monthly immigration data after March 2025, making real-time tracking harder for provinces, schools, employers, and families.
- RBC Economics and the PBO say the inflow is slowing but not enough, and both flag that the outflow of NPRs looks weaker than the plan assumed.
That mix makes hitting the population and NPR share goals on time more difficult.
The government’s message remains that the plan is a reset, not a sudden stop. Officials argue the system will stabilize over the next two years as changes flow through, and note many new permanent residents are already in Canada as workers or students. Because these applicants have jobs, school records, and local ties, Ottawa says they settle faster and do well in the labour market.
Critics accept that transitions help, but stress that overall totals still matter for housing and services.
Outlook and the next plan
The next Immigration Levels Plan (2026–2028) is due this fall, after consultations held in July and August. With the current year running hot, pressure is building for deeper cuts to both permanent and temporary streams.
- Provinces under the most stress (including Ontario and British Columbia) want fewer temporary entries and tighter rules on extensions.
- Business groups, especially in food processing, care, and construction, warn that cuts could worsen labour gaps just as projects and public builds need workers.
The government is trying to balance economic needs with easing regional pressures. Whether that balance holds will depend on how the fall plan responds to a year that diverged from the script.
Impact on applicants and communities
For newcomers, the gap between targets and real numbers affects day-to-day planning. Processing remains slow in some lines because demand is still high.
- People in Canada on study or work permits face tighter rules on eligibility and renewals, especially low-wage workers and students.
- Ottawa says it will keep prioritizing transitions from temporary to permanent status with a focus on health care and the skilled trades.
- Applicants with Canadian work history in these fields may have stronger options than those without local experience.
Families and communities feel the strain most in housing. Even with a sharp drop in new student permits, the total number of people staying on temporary status remains large.
The PBO’s warning is clear: if departures don’t rise, lower immigration targets alone won’t quickly ease the housing crunch—especially in metro areas with high rents and long waits for primary care.
How the system is set and tracked
Here’s how the system works in plain terms:
1. Each fall, the federal department tables a multi-year plan in Parliament with the next three years of targets.
2. The plan covers both permanent and temporary residents.
3. Provinces, territories, and stakeholder groups are consulted before the plan is finalized.
4. The department publishes quarterly and annual admission data. Monthly updates stopped after March 2025.
5. Targets can be adjusted each year based on economic, demographic, and political conditions.
The halt to monthly data has drawn strong reactions. Media reports and analysts say the change makes it harder to see in real time whether targets are being met. Critics argue the pause erodes trust; the government says quarterly and annual updates are sufficient and the system needs time to adjust.
With the TFWP cap already exceeded and Permanent Resident Intake on pace to overshoot, calls for more frequent reporting are likely to grow.
Practical advice for applicants and planners
For people planning their next steps:
– Keep status current. Make sure your permit or visa remains valid throughout your stay.
– Watch policy updates. New caps and program limits can arrive mid-year and affect renewal choices.
– Track employer-backed pathways if you work in health care or skilled trades—Ottawa is prioritizing these areas.
– Students should confirm school compliance and funding before applying, as institutions face stricter rules and caps.
Key numbers to remember
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Permanent residents accepted by end of July 2025 | 246,300 |
| Projected year-end permanent residents (pace) | ~422,000 |
| 2025 permanent resident target | 395,000 |
| TFWP cap (2025) | 82,000 |
| TFWP permits issued (first 6 months of 2025) | 105,195 |
| Study permits issued (first half of 2025) | 149,860 |
| NPR share of population (Q2 2025) | 7.1% |
| NPR share target (end of 2027) | 5% |
Stakes and concluding questions
International student numbers are the clearest area of decline so far in 2025, yet the first-half total of 149,860 is still large and asylum claims continue to rise. That combination explains why the NPR share has only edged down to 7.1% instead of moving quickly toward 5%.
Stakeholders are split: some provinces call for tighter controls now, citing crowded housing and services; business groups warn rapid cuts could deepen labour shortages. The government is attempting to thread a needle—keep the economy growing while easing daily pressures in hot regions.
As Ottawa prepares the 2026–2028 plan, the key questions remain:
– Will permanent admissions be cut further from 380,000 and 365,000 in the out years?
– Will temporary caps be lowered again?
– Will the government restore more frequent reporting so provinces and the public can monitor progress?
For official context on how the next plan is built, see the federal Immigration Levels Plan consultations page: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/consultations/2025-consultations-immigration-levels.html.
Ottawa says the reset will take time. The numbers so far this year show time is running short.
This Article in a Nutshell
Mid‑2025 data show Canada running above its 2025 immigration targets: permanent intake pacing to ~422,000 vs 395,000 target, and TFWP permits already exceeded. NPR share at 7.1% remains above the 2027 goal. Suspended monthly reporting and weak outflows complicate achieving the plan’s objectives.
