(AUSTRALIA) — Julian Hill, Assistant Minister for International Education, warned Australian educators on February 26, 2026, that overseas student numbers will not grow, as he urged providers and applicants to plan around “policy certainty” rather than higher volumes.
“I don’t think people should expect to see more student numbers,” Hill told Universities Australia’s annual conference, while pitching a shift toward “higher-value” students and outcomes tied to quality, skills and completion.
Hill framed international education as both an economic contributor and part of Australia’s soft-power approach, and he pointed to market diversification as a government focus, including deeper engagement in Southeast Asia.
The message lands after two years of policy tightening that Hill said has cooled “headline commencements,” a fast-moving measure that can change quickly as new entrants respond to rules and risk settings.
Hill said policy changes over the past two years reduced “headline commencements” by about 15%, even as overall student numbers stayed flat because continuing students remain enrolled as cohorts progress and complete.
That gap between commencements and total enrolments matters for universities and other providers trying to read the cycle. Commencements can fall sharply in a single intake period, while total numbers often move more slowly as students already onshore finish courses.
A geographic rebalancing has accompanied the cooling in commencements, reshaping where student demand concentrates and where pressures emerge.
Commencements recorded percentage growth in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Northern Territory, South Australia, and Western Australia, alongside reductions in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria.
Those distributional shifts feed into local debates over housing pressure, campus capacity and labour markets, and they influence how institutions adjust recruitment, accommodation planning and course offerings across jurisdictions.
A 2025 snapshot of new students studying in Australia showed demand moving down year-on-year, offering another read on how policy settings have reshaped the pipeline.
New students studying in Australia in 2025 totaled 190,799, a 15% decline from the same period in 2024, data showed.
The fall in new students sits alongside Hill’s push for stability in settings rather than expansion, with government messaging focused on sustainable intake while providers adapt to a smaller flow of entrants.
Offshore student visas provide another window into the pipeline because applications and grants move before students arrive and before enrolments change, and timing can complicate the link between visa activity and onshore numbers.
In 2024/25, nearly 230,000 primary offshore student visa applications were lodged, down nearly 30% from 2023/24, while granted visas reached just over 210,000, a 12% drop year-over-year.
Higher education accounted for nearly 75% of new grants, concentrating approvals in the university sector even as other parts of the market contracted more sharply.
Vocational Education and Training (VET) and English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) dropped 50%, a shift that can reshape provider mix and student pathways that often start in language or vocational courses before moving into higher education.
The application-to-grant pipeline does not always move in lockstep with enrolments. Students can defer, providers can adjust intake patterns, and processing timelines mean the effects of a fall in offshore applications can take time to show up in course commencements and total onshore numbers.
Officials and sector leaders have also described the overall movement as closer to pre-pandemic patterns, with comparisons drawn to the 2017/18 era as a reference point for settings and flows.
The trend alignment with 2017/18 has been linked to the National Planning Levels (NPL) under Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111), which shapes planning architecture around intake settings and outcomes.
Student visa decisions also sit inside Australia’s broader migration picture, where net overseas migration has been easing and government has cited specific levers for the slowdown in approvals.
Net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ending June 2025 fell to 306,000, a second consecutive annual decline.
Student visa approvals eased amid higher financial requirements, revised Genuine Student assessments, and integrity measures, with scrutiny focused on risk indicators and patterns tied to providers and sectors.
Universities have sought clearer guidance on what the intake framework means for 2026 planning, including how many places the sector can expect and what, if anything, is guaranteed.
Universities Australia reported total allocations rising to 161,725 places for 2026, with each university guaranteed its 2025 allocation and many receiving increases.
The guarantee mechanism offers a baseline for institutional planning, while increases for many universities can influence course availability and marketing strategies as providers compete for a stable pool of students rather than a growing one.
Business groups have argued that international education should remain central to Australia’s economic strategy even as the government resists a return to growth in volumes.
Business Council of Australia CEO Bran Black called international education “one of our great success stories,” and urged it be treated as an asset rather than a problem.
Black pointed to the sector’s role in university finances, saying it accounts for 55% of university funding outside federal government support.
Equity concerns have also featured in the debate, with questions over who can access Australian study as fees and costs rise and as tighter assessments reshape the profile of successful applicants.
Hilligje van’t Land, secretary-general of the International Association of Universities, said Australia’s high fees limit access to privileged students.
The government’s diversification push, including the stated emphasis on Southeast Asia, has also confronted a regional pattern moving in the opposite direction.
Southeast Asian student visas declined 21% from 2023/24 to 2024/25, twice the overall 12% drop, a tension that sits alongside the government’s stated aim of expanding engagement across the region.
Hill has pointed to market diversification as part of a broader approach that includes economic benefits and soft power, while repeating that providers should not plan for expanding overseas student numbers under current settings.
For institutions, the combination of flat overall numbers, reduced commencements, and shifting geography has meant a more complex planning task than a single headline would suggest, with onshore cohort dynamics, offshore visa pipelines and allocation settings all shaping what happens next.
Julian Hill Urges Policy Certainty as Southeast Asia Halts Student Growth
Australia is pivoting its international education strategy from volume-based growth to a focus on quality and stability. Assistant Minister Julian Hill confirmed that student numbers will not increase, following a significant 15% drop in new commencements. The sector is seeing a geographic shift in demand, with vocational sectors hit hardest by tighter visa rules, while the government guarantees 2026 university places to provide planning certainty.
