(TAKAMATSU) Takamatsu Airport is still facing a sharp drop in visitors from Hong Kong as of August 28, 2025, months after a viral comic predicted a “megaquake” for early July. The prophecy never came true, but the scare has outlasted its date. Airport data shared in local reports show a steep break in the numbers in late spring, led by a 31% month-over-month fall in May to 2,865 arrivals from Hong Kong, followed by more declines through June and July, with no recovery in August.
Officials say airlines have yet to bring back direct flights that were suspended before July, and reduced schedules remain in place. The downturn has spread beyond Hong Kong to other nearby markets, including South Korea, mainland China, and Taiwan, but the city remains the hardest hit source of travelers for Kagawa Prefecture.
Airport leadership and immediate response
Airport president Yoshiki Obata has warned that the slump could continue if public worries linger. At a Takamatsu City Council meeting on August 25, airport officials said the Hong Kong–Takamatsu traffic has not bounced back and flight schedules are still thinner than normal.
The airport says it will step up marketing and work with local partners to draw overseas tourists back, but it has not shared firm campaign details or timelines. Local tourism offices are discussing joint efforts to rebuild trust among travelers who canceled plans or put them on hold after the comic spread online in the spring and summer.
Tourism fallout from the manga’s forecast
The current slide traces to a prediction in the cult manga The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki, which flagged July 5, 2025 as the date of a “megaquake.” The author’s earlier prediction of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake helped the forecast gain wide attention. As the claim took off on social media, worry rose across East Asia.
In Hong Kong—where Japan is a long-time favorite for short breaks and family trips—the warning cut through peak summer planning. Many travelers canceled or rebooked away from areas viewed, rightly or wrongly, as at risk. Shikoku, home to Kagawa Prefecture and Takamatsu Airport, saw that caution show up in airline bookings, hotel interest, and airport arrivals. Even though the date passed with no disaster, public fear did not fade right away.
The numbers and patterns
Airport figures show a clear hesitation:
- April 2025: Rough pre-scare baseline of about 4,150 travelers from Hong Kong.
- May 2025: Arrivals fell to 2,865, a 31% drop month-over-month.
- Declines continued through June and July, with no rebound in August.
- None of the direct flights from Hong Kong to Takamatsu that were suspended before July have been restored, according to officials.
The pattern also appears across the region—with smaller declines—from South Korea, mainland China, and Taiwan. Still, Hong Kong remains the most affected market for Takamatsu Airport, where overseas leisure travel is a key link to local shops, hotels, and the broader visitor economy.
“Public worry is the primary driver,” airport officials say. The fear began online, spread quickly through chat groups and news apps, and shaped choices about where—and when—to fly.
Because Takamatsu is a regional hub serving a scenic, slower-paced part of Japan, the effects are amplified: fewer inbound travelers hit hotel occupancy, rental car demand, island ferry traffic (e.g., Shodoshima), restaurants, and small retail near the airport and city center.
Airline responses and implications
The ongoing slide has led carriers to keep capacity tight:
- Carriers have not restored paused Hong Kong–Takamatsu flights as of late August.
- Some airlines shifted capacity to other Japanese cities or alternative routes earlier in the summer.
- As long as Hong Kong demand remains soft, airlines will likely watch booking curves and remain flexible rather than commit aircraft back to Kagawa.
Consequences for travelers:
– Fewer direct options from Hong Kong and nearby hubs.
– Rerouting via larger airports may increase travel time and cost.
– Weekend or seasonal test flights are a typical early signal of route recovery for rural skies.
Officials stress that they are preparing campaigns to draw travelers back but are candid that changing minds after a scare can take time. Messaging, refunds, and simple booking paths are seen as the fastest levers.
Economic stakes for the region
The drop in inbound traffic affects many local stakeholders:
- Reduced flight schedules cut airport revenue (passenger services and concessions).
- Lower visitor numbers mean leaner periods for tour operators, guides, regional bus lines, restaurants, and hotels.
- Hotel managers report lower occupancy from East Asia; rental car counters and duty-free outlets see fewer customers.
Yoshiki Obata warns the downturn could continue if public concern persists. Local leaders are focusing on restoring confidence through coordinated messaging, close talks with airlines, and targeted outreach to key markets—especially Hong Kong.
Broader context and contributing factors
While the manga scare is the primary cause, other background factors play roles:
- A hot summer across East Asia reducing travel appetite.
- Tight household budgets in parts of China.
- Shifting travel tastes that favor big-city hubs or established resorts.
- Fast-moving social media chatter that reframes perceptions quickly.
Analysts note that combining calm, factual messaging with flexible airline schedules and friendly refund policies can gradually rebuild demand. VisaVerge.com’s analysis suggests reassurance and clear booking paths help those on the fence decide to travel again.
Messaging and recovery strategies
Officials and tourism groups plan to:
- Reach out to travelers who previously booked Shikoku for art, food, and island scenery.
- Highlight local safety standards, transport links, festivals, and fall events.
- Emphasize simple trip planning—how to connect via larger airports when direct flights are limited.
- Use channels travelers frequent: phones, travel apps, and social networks.
Key constraints:
– No detailed campaign dates or offers have been announced.
– Timing is delicate: launch too soon and messages may not land; wait too long and seasonal demand may pass.
Analysts suggest late 2025 could be a good window for a push, as the failed date fades from memory and weather cools. Airport leaders have not issued a forecast; they state only that the slump “could continue” if concerns do.
Travel rules and practical info
Entry rules have not changed and are not driving the slowdown. Japan’s visa policy for short stays from many East Asian places remains stable.
For visa details and updates, check the Ministry of Foreign Affairs site: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan – Visa information.
For the latest Takamatsu Airport schedules, routes, and notices, consult the official site: Takamatsu Airport.
Snapshot: Facts as of late August
- Arrivals from Hong Kong fell 31% in May 2025 to 2,865 travelers, then kept falling through June and July, with no August rebound.
- None of the suspended direct flights from Hong Kong to Takamatsu have been brought back yet.
- Arrivals from South Korea, mainland China, and Taiwan are also down, though less sharply.
- The airport and local tourism offices plan to increase marketing, but start dates and offers are undisclosed.
Markers to watch for recovery
Three early signs that demand may be warming:
1. A test flight or seasonal add by a carrier on the Hong Kong–Takamatsu route.
2. A public launch date for the airport’s international marketing push.
3. A steady week of arrivals that matches or beats the April baseline (~4,150).
Until any of these appear, officials will continue steady messaging and coordination with airlines and travel partners.
Local impacts and closing perspective
- Small businesses near the airport—shops, rental car desks, hoteliers—have felt the drop in summer tourist traffic.
- There was no megaquake on July 5, 2025; the main damage was to travel sentiment and schedules.
- Recovery will hinge on calm, consistent, and practical messaging, paired with airline capacity adjustments and booking incentives.
The region’s attraction—art islands, sea views, udon trails, and local charm—has not changed. The goal now is to help people in Hong Kong and nearby markets feel ready to return.
This Article in a Nutshell
Takamatsu Airport experienced a sustained downturn in inbound travelers from Hong Kong through late August 2025 after a viral manga predicted a July 5 ‘megaquake.’ Arrivals fell from about 4,150 in April to 2,865 in May (a 31% drop), continued declining in June and July, and showed no recovery in August. Suspended direct Hong Kong–Takamatsu flights remain unreinstated and carriers have reduced capacity or redirected services. The slump affected nearby markets too, but Hong Kong is hardest hit. Airport officials, led by Yoshiki Obata, plan marketing and partnership efforts to rebuild confidence but have not provided firm timelines. Local businesses face reduced occupancy and revenue. Analysts recommend calm, factual messaging, flexible refund policies, and phased airline tests as ways to restore demand. Key recovery signs include test flights, a public marketing launch, or arrivals returning to pre-scare levels.
