(CALIFORNIA) — Analysts linked intensified federal Immigration raids in 2025 to a steep drop in California’s private-sector workforce, with new data showing hundreds of thousands of workers leaving jobs during the weeks of high-profile workplace enforcement.
Employment decline: the numbers
An analysis of U.S. Census data found California’s private-sector employment fell 3.1% (approximately 465,000 workers) between May 11 and June 8, 2025, the period when federal raids escalated in Los Angeles. By the week of July 6, the decline reached 4.9% (roughly 742,492 fewer workers).
- Non-citizens experienced the largest percentage decline at 12.3%.
- U.S. citizens accounted for the largest numerical drop — approximately 415,000 citizens left the private-sector workforce between May and July.
The analyses did not pin the labor changes to a single raid or action, but described the overall enforcement surge as closely aligned with the timing of the employment drop.
Sectors and local impacts
Researchers and forecasters tied job losses and disruptions to industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor, including:
- Agriculture
- Construction
- Hospitality
The UCLA Anderson Forecast described an “employment recession” in those industries. Some Ventura County businesses reported revenue losses of 60% to 75%, illustrating knock-on effects beyond payrolls that affected production schedules and local commerce.
Causes and dynamics: why citizens also declined
Analysts pointed to a “chilling effect” that kept some workers home to avoid contact with immigration authorities. In addition:
- A Hoover Institution study found raids in early 2025 led to a 22% increase in student absences in Central Valley school districts, with pre-K absences surging 32%.
- As non-citizen caregivers stayed home or were detained, many U.S. citizen family members left the labor force to fill caregiving gaps.
These dynamics help explain why citizens could make up the largest numerical decline even though non-citizens had the steepest percentage drop.
Federal enforcement: operations and official statements
The enforcement push included “Operation Return to Sender,” which ICE described on Feb 24, 2025 as an “interior enforcement initiative that applies an organized and methodical approach to the identification, location and arrest of. fugitive aliens.”
Key federal remarks:
“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are making America safe again and putting the American people first. In record time we have secured the border, taken the fight to cartels, and arrested thousands upon thousands of criminal illegal aliens. Though 2025 was historic, we won’t rest until the job is done.”
— DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Dec 22, 2025“Under President Trump and Secretary Noem’s leadership, our border is secure, integrity has been restored to our immigration system, and the safety of our homeland comes first.”
— USCIS Director Joseph Edlow, Dec 22, 2025 (noting over 29,000 fraud referrals in 2025)
Border Patrol Sector Chief Greg Bovino, defending operations in Sacramento and Los Angeles in July 2025, said: “There is no sanctuary anywhere. We’re here to stay. We’re not going anywhere. We’re going to affect this mission and secure the homeland.”
Federal agencies emphasized arrests and fraud referrals as markers of success, while framing the measures as restoring “integrity” and “order.”
Federal funding and legislative backdrop
The federal government’s expanded enforcement capacity in 2025 was financed by a major law signed July 4, 2025 — the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), a budget reconciliation measure identified as H.R. 1.
Key allocations in OBBBA:
| Purpose | Amount / Detail |
|---|---|
| Total for immigration enforcement and deportation operations through FY2029 | Over $160 billion |
| Expand detention capacity | $45 billion |
| Border barrier construction | Authorized construction of over 700 miles |
| Personnel | Mandated hiring of thousands of new ICE and CBP personnel |
These resources underpinned the larger interior enforcement posture and expanded staffing in 2025.
Legal and state responses
California’s response unfolded both in the courts and the state legislature as raids and worksite actions intensified.
- In April 2025, a federal judge in United Farm Workers v. Noem issued a preliminary injunction barring Border Patrol from conducting “suspicionless” stops and warrantless arrests in the Central Valley, finding that “Operation Return to Sender” likely violated constitutional protections.
- At the state level, California enacted SB 294 (Workplace Know Your Rights Act), effective January 1, 2026, which requires employers to:
- Notify employees of their constitutional rights
- Contact emergency designees in the event of a workplace raid
These measures became focal points for unions, immigrant advocates, and businesses navigating the fallout.
Political and public reactions
California officials and labor advocates argued the raids pushed families into hiding and thinned payrolls. Governor Gavin Newsom’s spokesperson, Tara Gallegos, criticized the raids on July 16, 2025:
“Donald Trump’s ruthless and cruel raids have sent families into hiding, impacting our schools, churches, businesses and workforce—hurting not only California, but the entire nation.”
The contrasting narratives between federal and state officials set up a year of legal fights and new workplace rules that took effect January 1, 2026.
Broader community effects
Analysts noted that the workforce drawdown arrived as California employers were already warning of hiring strains in farm regions and service-heavy corridors. The abrupt dislocation manifested in:
- Unfilled shifts and reduced crews
- Disrupted production schedules
- Increased strain on schools and caregiving arrangements
The employment figures — 3.1% drop between May 11 and June 8, rising to 4.9% by early July — gave the debate a quantitative measure as 2026 began.
Where to find official updates
Employers and workers seeking federal enforcement announcements have been directed to official sources:
- DHS Newsroom: DHS Newsroom
- USCIS Newsroom: USCIS Newsroom
- ICE News Releases: ICE News Releases
- California Department of Justice: California Department of Justice
Outlook
For communities and businesses across California, the 2025 pattern documented by the analyses left an open question at the start of 2026: whether employment rebounds as fears subside, or whether sustained enforcement tempo and new federal staffing funded by OBBBA keep workers on the sidelines.
Tara Gallegos summarized the state’s view of the raids’ reach: “impacting our schools, churches, businesses and workforce—hurting not only California, but the entire nation.”
Analyses link 2025’s federal immigration surge to a steep 4.9% decline in California’s private-sector labor force. The impact reached beyond non-citizens, as hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens exited jobs to manage family disruptions. Industries like agriculture and construction faced severe revenue losses. While federal officials emphasize restored order via the OBBBA, California has responded with state-level protections and legal injunctions against suspicionless stops.
