(AUSTRALIA) — Australia’s Department of home affairs (DHA) cut staffing by about 70% over the Christmas-New Year period, slowing visa decisions across most streams until late January 2026, migration advisers and other observers said.
applications lodged after December 20, 2025 are predicted to wait up to 12 weeks instead of the usual 4-6 weeks, with files “unlikely to advance until around Australia Day (January 26)”, the same observers said. The slowdown has rippled across skilled, family-reunion, business-sponsorship and visitor visas, they said.
DHA closed for public holidays on December 25-26, 2025, and January 1, 2026, and reduced staffing persisted into January, extending timelines and limiting urgent case escalations, according to the accounts provided.
How the holiday lull works
The holiday lull is an annual feature of Australia’s summer, advisers said, with case progression slowing as fewer files are allocated to case officers and fewer decisions are finalised. Applicants often see fewer updates in their accounts, with long gaps between submission and any movement.
reduced staffing can also delay Section 56 information requests, which are used to ask applicants for more documents or clarification, advisers said. With fewer requests issued, applicants who might otherwise have been prompted to fix gaps before a decision can find their files sitting idle longer.
For many applicants, the timing is not just administrative. The pause can affect travel, study intake dates and employment start dates, particularly for people who lodged close to the shutdown and expected processing to continue at normal pace.
Factors amplifying the slowdown
This season’s slowdown has been amplified by additional workload, migration advisers said, pointing to a November 2025 surge in skilled-migration invitations that pushed more applicants into the pipeline at once. Advisers also pointed to new student visa fraud-detection protocols that they said have increased the time spent on verification and triage.
VisaHQ data released January 8, 2026 showed drops in Section 56 requests and grant notifications, advisers said, describing it as another sign of reduced case activity during the holiday period. They cautioned that third-party indicators measure signals rather than the full internal workflow.
The practical effect of the holiday period can feel like “nothing moves,” advisers said, even though different visa categories normally have different timeframes. Lodged files can remain unallocated longer, stretching end-to-end processing times well beyond what applicants expected when they pressed submit.
Predicted timeline shifts and recovery plans
The predicted shift from the “usual 4-6 weeks” to “up to 12 weeks” for applications lodged after December 20, 2025 reflects the compounding effect of slow allocation, fewer Section 56 requests and fewer grants during peak leave weeks, advisers said. They expect movement to resume around late January, with Australia Day (January 26) frequently treated as a marker for when offices and work patterns normalise.
Insiders indicated DHA would deploy weekend overtime and temporary contractors from January 20 to recover, according to the advisers’ accounts. They compared it to a 2025 effort that they said cleared over 18,000 backlogs in three weeks, though outcomes can vary by stream and risk profile.
Backlog recovery, when it happens, tends to prioritise files that are decision-ready and cohorts viewed as higher priority, advisers said. They said risk-based processing means complete applications can move faster, while cases triggering integrity checks or missing documents can take longer even during catch-up periods.
Variations across visa streams
Even as online commentary circulates ranges and anecdotes, DHA’s own guidance has long stressed variability, with processing driven by volume, integrity checks and peak periods, according to the summary provided. DHA offers tools for estimates but does not issue a specific holiday lull announcement, the summary said.
Student visas have become a focal point of the integrity crackdown, with added delays expected from heightened scrutiny under “Evidence Level 3” for India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan effective January 8, 2026, the summary said. The change was linked to fraud concerns including “fake bank certificates,” it said.
Dr. Abul Rizvi, described as former deputy secretary of Immigration, said student visa processing times “may double” and cited “refusal rates over 20%,” according to the summary provided.
The heightened scrutiny can increase the likelihood of document requests or refusals, and also lengthen processing as officers verify financial evidence and other supporting material. Applicants in affected cohorts may need to prepare for more intensive checking of documents that are often central to student visa decisions, including proof of funds, advisers said.
Other visa categories are also seeing wide variation, according to the summary. It listed TSS/SID at “2-7 months or 9-47 days,” and said Training visas could take “up to 9 months,” underscoring how different pathways can sit on very different timelines even before any seasonal slowdown is added.
Employer-sponsored applications can move unevenly because the visa decision depends on both applicant information and business-side documentation, migration advisers said. They said processing can vary based on occupation, the completeness of the employer’s records and whether compliance history prompts closer checking.
Training visa processing can also be slowed by sponsor or host documentation, the structure of the proposed program and integrity checks, advisers said. The holiday lull compounds those variables rather than replacing them, leaving some applicants with longer waits at exactly the time they are trying to plan arrivals and start dates.
Data signals and online analysis
YouTube analyses from early January 2026 pointed to January backlogs arising from holiday volumes, New Year policy shifts, and post-Christmas applications, reflecting how applicant behaviour clusters around the end of the year. Those analyses also emphasised that processing varies by priority, with some specialist streams described at 14-68 days and others at 81 days to 7 months.
VisaHQ figures and other third-party trackers can show drops in actions such as Section 56 requests and grant notifications, but advisers warned these are signals rather than a full view of internal operations. That gap between what applicants experience and what is officially stated often fuels speculation in online communities.
Advisers said applicants should treat third-party trackers and social media claims as partial signals and focus on what appears in their own account messages.
Practical advice and mitigation guidance
Travel planning adds another layer of risk during the slowdown. Migration advisers urged applicants to monitor ImmiAccount closely for updates and requests, and warned that “airlines deny boarding without APP system grants,” according to the mitigation guidance provided.
Advisers also encouraged applicants to build “decision-ready” files by front-loading medicals, police checks and skills assessments where applicable, the mitigation guidance said. The goal is to reduce the chance that a case officer pauses the file to request standard documents later, which can be especially costly during a period of reduced staffing.
Applicants with travelling family members were urged to consider group processing and ensure documents are consistent across the party, the guidance said. Mismatched information and missing attachments can lead to additional back-and-forth, and each additional request can extend timelines during a period when Section 56 requests are already reportedly dropping.
For many applicants, the hardest part of visa processing delays is not the waiting itself but the knock-on decisions it forces. Advisers said applicants should avoid making irreversible commitments until the visa is granted, because even a short holiday lull can cascade into missed flights, deferred start dates or additional costs.
Applicants should monitor their own ImmiAccount messages rather than relying solely on third-party trackers. Building decision-ready files and keeping travel plans flexible can mitigate the impact of seasonal slowdowns.
What to watch for next
DHA’s guidance, as summarised, points applicants back to the same core drivers: volume, integrity checks and peak periods. With Australia Day approaching and recovery steps flagged from January 20, applicants and employers are watching for signs that allocations, Section 56 requests and grant notifications begin to lift again.
Advisers expect movement to resume around late January, but emphasised that outcomes will vary by stream, application completeness and any integrity flags. Applicants in affected cohorts should prepare for more intensive checks and potentially longer waits, particularly where new protocols such as Evidence Level 3 apply.
Australia’s Department of Home Affairs significantly reduced staffing by 70% during the year-end holidays, causing visa processing times to jump from 6 weeks to 12 weeks. This seasonal lull, combined with new fraud-detection protocols for student visas and a surge in skilled migration invitations, has created a substantial backlog. Recovery efforts involving overtime are planned for late January 2026, though variability remains high across different visa categories.
