German aviation lobby warns of economic fallout as airlines withdraw

(GERMANY) Germany’s main airline and airport groups are warning that rising taxes and fees are pushing carriers to cut flights or leave the market, with fresh 2025 moves sharpening worries about jobs, regional links, and price pressure. The German aviation lobby says higher costs are driving traffic to other European hubs and hitting communities that depend on affordable flights for work, study, and family ties.

The loudest signal came from Ryanair, which plans a broad pullback in summer 2025 after labeling Germany its worst‑performing major EU market post‑COVID. Industry statements in late July and August 2025 frame the risk as immediate: fewer routes, higher fares, and thousands of roles at stake if policy does not shift.

Cost Drivers Behind the Retreat

Airlines point to a stacked set of charges that has grown since 2024. Key elements include:

• Air transport tax: Raised in May 2024. The per‑ticket levy now runs roughly €15–€70 by distance band. Ryanair says the short‑haul rate rose by about 24% to €15.53 from May 2024.
• Security fees: A 50% increase in the cap took effect in January 2025, adding costs that airports recover from airlines and, ultimately, travelers.
• Air navigation charges: Ryanair reports German air traffic control fees have doubled since 2019.
• Airport charges: Several airports, including Hamburg, signaled fee increases for 2025.

Industry bodies argue this mix makes Germany less competitive than European peers that are cutting or freezing aviation charges to spur recovery. They also note that Germany’s traffic had only recovered to about 82% of pre‑COVID levels by late 2024, leaving demand more sensitive to price.

Route Cuts and Base Closures Reshape Travel Options

Ryanair’s announced network changes for summer 2025 include:

1. Capacity reduction: 12% cut to its Germany capacity.
2. Routes affected: 22 routes and roughly 1.8 million seats.
3. Base closures and reductions:
   • Close/withdraw from bases at Dortmund, Dresden, and Leipzig/Halle.
   • Deep reductions at Hamburg (−60%) and Berlin (−20%).

The airline links these steps directly to the higher air transport tax, security fees, and air navigation charges, and has urged the federal government to reverse the hikes.

The German airline federation (BDF) and airports association (ADV) say the cuts were predictable given Germany’s cost levels. They warn other carriers could scale back where fees and taxes keep rising in 2025.

Regional Connectivity and Human Impact

Communities that rely on direct low‑cost flights will feel the shift first. The loss of Ryanair operations at Dortmund, Dresden, and Leipzig/Halle removes budget links that many migrants, students, and seasonal workers use for regular trips.

Consequences travelers may face with fewer low‑fare seats at Hamburg and Berlin:

• Longer travel times via connections
• Fewer flight times and weekend options
• Higher average fares on surviving routes

Industry groups also warn of leakage: passengers may book from nearby foreign airports with lower charges, diverting spending away from German cities. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, this pattern often weakens smaller airports and local service jobs while pushing travelers to hubs across the border.

Key takeaway: Smaller airports and the communities depending on them are most exposed—loss of flights can reduce local income and jobs tied to travel demand.

Labor Disruptions Add to Uncertainty

Cost pressure is not the only headwind. A nationwide ground‑staff strike in March 2025 was expected to cancel about 3,400 flights in a single day. DFS (the air navigation service) indicated air traffic control itself would not strike, but airport‑side stoppages still brought much of German air traffic to a halt, the ADV said.

For travelers: capacity cuts reduce choice, and labor action raises the risk of short‑notice disruption.

Jobs and the Wider Economy

The German aviation lobby has linked the 2025 withdrawals and capacity cuts to an estimated 10,000 jobs at risk across airlines, airports, ground handling, and tourism. These figures, cited in industry reporting from July–August 2025, reflect both direct roles and knock‑on effects on:

• Hotels
• Restaurants
• Conference venues

Employers that rely on frequent short‑haul travel for staff movement, interviews, or cross‑border projects may need to plan for fewer seats and shifting schedules.

Government Position and Policy Outlook

As of August 11, 2025, there is no reported reversal of the May 2024 aviation tax increase. Airlines say their proposals—to abolish the air transport tax, reduce ATC charges, and delay the 2025 security fee cap—have not been adopted.

The finance and transport ministries face competing goals:

• Budget needs and environmental policy on one side
• Economic competitiveness and regional access on the other

An official overview of the air transport tax is available from the Federal Ministry of Finance: https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de

What to watch next:

• Any signal from federal ministries on changing the air transport tax or moderating fees in 2025–2026
• Airline network plans for winter 2025/26 and summer 2026 that could extend cuts or show stabilization
• Progress in labor talks with airport service providers to avoid repeat shutdowns

Positions Across the Sector

• Airlines: Ryanair CEO Eddie Wilson has urged policymakers to scrap the air transport tax, roll back air navigation charges, and postpone the 2025 security fee change, arguing that a “high‑fare monopoly” and high costs are choking growth.
• Airports: The ADV says Germany is “no longer competitive” and warns of economic harm if fees remain out of line with EU peers.
• Airline federation: The BDF calls Germany’s cost levels among Europe’s highest and says Ryanair’s pullback was foreseeable.

Practical Guidance for Travelers, Students, and Employers

• Expect fewer low‑cost options at Dortmund, Dresden, and Leipzig/Halle in summer 2025. Hamburg and Berlin will also see reduced frequencies—check alternative airports or rail for time‑sensitive trips.
• Price‑sensitive travelers should book early and stay flexible with dates to find lower fares on remaining routes.
• During labor talks, monitor airline and airport alerts closely. If a strike is called, same‑day changes can be hard to manage when capacity is already tight.
• Employers and universities: build longer lead times into travel plans for onboarding, exams, or events that rely on domestic or short‑haul flights.

Timeline of Key Changes

As policymakers weigh next steps, the message from the German aviation lobby and airlines is consistent: the cost environment—driven by the air transport tax, security fees, and ATC charges—is reshaping Germany’s air links. For people who depend on regular, affordable flights, the coming seasons will likely require more planning, more flexibility, and a close eye on policy announcements that could shift the outlook again.