(FINLAND) Finland expects overall migration to hold steady through 2026, even as student numbers soften, work-related permits fall this year, and asylum applications stay at what officials describe as moderate levels. In its latest forecast, the Finnish Immigration Service said Student Migration, Work-Based Migration, and asylum trends all show clear shifts tied to tuition fees, the labour market and changes in Europe’s asylum climate, but no sign of a major surge or collapse in total arrivals.
Student migration: softer numbers but continued access
For international students, Finland projects between 13,000 and 14,000 student residence permit applications a year in 2025 and 2026. That would be a small drop from recent years and is linked mainly to higher tuition fees and the move to a full-cost tuition model for non-EU and non-EEA students.
Universities and polytechnics now expect many foreign students to cover the full cost of their studies unless they win scholarships, which may make Finland less reachable for some families.
Officials stress this softer Student Migration trend does not mean Finland is closing its doors to foreign students. Instead, authorities are trying to balance cost pressures on higher education while keeping degree programmes attractive. Finnish institutions continue to:
– expand courses taught in English
– promote clear paths from studies to work
– monitor whether higher fees push applicants to rival destinations such as the Netherlands, Germany or Nordic neighbours
Work-based migration: a pronounced fall, cautious outlook for recovery
Between January and October 2025, Finland received 9,593 first-time work permit applications, a 29% fall compared with the same period in 2024. The Finnish Immigration Service now forecasts about 11,000 work-based residence permit applications for all of 2025, with a possible 11,000 to 13,000 range in 2026.
Officials attribute this year’s decline primarily to:
– weak economic conditions
– higher unemployment
– global economic uncertainty
These factors have reduced hiring plans across several sectors.
However, the outlook is not entirely bleak. The forecast notes:
– early signs of recovery in Finland and globally could lift Work-Based Migration in 2026
– sectors likely to restart hiring include manufacturing, technology, health care and other fields facing long-term labour shortages
– government measures aim to make it easier for skilled workers to stay once they arrive, supporting growth in an ageing labour market
Asylum trends: moderation, not spikes
From January to October 2025, 1,709 first asylum applications were filed in Finland — about 15% fewer than in the same period in 2024. For both 2025 and 2026, the Finnish Immigration Service expects 1,500 to 2,500 first asylum applications per year.
Officials link this moderation to:
– administrative changes in countries such as Syria
– tighter European Union entry controls
– generally calmer asylum trends across the EU compared with peak arrival years
Changes to permanent residence: tighter requirements from 2026
A set of policy changes will make long-term settlement in Finland more demanding. Key changes include:
– From 8 January 2026, the continuous residence period required for a permanent residence permit will rise from four to six years
– Applicants will also need to demonstrate language skills in Finnish or Swedish
– A certain length of work history in Finland will be required
The government says these steps are meant to support integration and ensure people who gain permanent status have built clear ties to Finnish society and the labour market.
Practical effects on students and workers
The new rules may weigh heavily on both Student Migration and Work-Based Migration:
– International students who once aimed to move from studies to permanent status in four years now need a longer legal residence and stronger proof of employment
– Workers on fixed-term contracts may see breaks between jobs or time spent outside Finland delay eligibility
– Analysis by VisaVerge.com suggests migrants will need to plan earlier for language courses and more stable employment to secure long-term status
Measures to retain skilled talent and speed processing
To offset the risk that tighter rules could drive away skilled talent, the government is introducing economic and social measures:
– Streamlining the residence permit process for key worker categories
– Expanding the right to work for people in sectors with labour shortages (health care, social services, certain technical fields)
– Aiming to shorten waiting times and give employers more confidence when offering jobs to people abroad
One concrete step already in effect is the “three-month unemployment rule”:
– Took effect on 11 June 2025
– If a worker loses their job, they have three months to find new employment without automatically losing their right to stay
– This can be decisive for settled families — giving children continuity in school and adults time to search for work
How the system links together
The forecast highlights how different parts of the migration pathway are interconnected. A typical route could be:
1. Graduate from a Finnish university (student residence)
2. Switch to a work-based residence permit
3. Build up required employment and language record for permanent residence
Under the new rules, each step will matter more. Successful progress from study to work to long-term rights will depend on:
– individual effort
– availability of jobs in Finland’s economy
– how quickly officials process applications
The coming years will test whether Finland can keep its reputation as an open, well-organised Nordic country while tightening some rules.
Stakeholder concerns and risks
- Employers in high-tech and health care warn that if Work-Based Migration does not pick up in 2026, staff shortages could slow growth and strain services.
- Student groups worry that higher fees and longer paths to permanent residence will disproportionately affect applicants from lower-income countries, even if headline student numbers appear stable.
What this means for prospective migrants
For people abroad considering Finland, the forecast suggests a mixed picture:
– There is no sign of sudden border closure
– The system increasingly expects more proof of commitment from those who want to stay long-term
– Students, workers and asylum seekers still have routes into the country, but rules around long-term settlement will tighten in early 2026
For detailed information on residence permits and future policy updates, see the Finnish Immigration Service: https://migri.fi/en.
The Finnish Immigration Service forecasts stable overall migration through 2026, with student permits at 13,000–14,000 annually and work permits down sharply in 2025. First-time work permit applications fell 29% through October 2025, with a projected 11,000 for 2025 and 11,000–13,000 in 2026. Asylum applications moderated. From January 2026, permanent residence will require six years’ continuous residence, language skills, and work history. The government also plans processing streamlining and retention measures for key sectors.
