FAA to run tabletop scenario planning with Boeing before lifting 737 MAX cap

(UNITED STATES) The Federal Aviation Administration is holding the line at a production cap of 38 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft per month, and says it will not weigh any increase until it completes scenario-based planning—a set of detailed tabletop exercises with Boeing—now in development and targeted for completion by the end of September 2025. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the drills will stress-test how a faster build rate would affect safety, quality, and the supplier base, and will guide any later decision. As of late August, Boeing has not asked to lift the cap, and regulators say their oversight will remain intense, with in-person audits and weekly reviews on the factory floor.

The cap dates back to a January 2024 mid-air emergency on an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9, when a door plug panel blew off due to missing bolts. The FAA responded with added controls and a phased approach meant to force long-term fixes rather than quick patches. Bedford told reporters the changes he sees inside the company are “real, but still embryonic,” adding the agency is “a long ways away from saying we can let our guard down.” Boeing, for its part, has said it is working toward steadier output and higher quality. In May 2025, CEO Kelly Ortberg voiced confidence about eventually reaching 42 jets per month, while noting ongoing problems that still need to be solved.

What the tabletop exercises will do

Under the current plan, the tabletop exercises will model what could go wrong as speed rises: incomplete inspections, rushed rework, supplier shortages, or confusion around training and handoffs. Regulators and Boeing will then build a shared “playbook” to prevent those issues.

FAA officials say this scenario-based planning is a fresh layer of oversight, designed to anticipate problems before they reach the line—or end up in service. The agency extended by three years a program that lets Boeing perform some inspection tasks on the FAA’s behalf, citing process improvements, but kept the extension shorter than the usual five years, a sign of continued caution.

Boeing’s current output has steadied at 38 per month after dipping to 35 in June 2025. In July, the company delivered an estimated 37 737 MAX jets (35 MAX 8s and 2 MAX 9s). As of July 2025, Boeing had delivered 1,923 737 MAX aircraft in total and still faced 4,856 unfilled orders, underscoring the market pressure around single-aisle jets.

The FAA says it will move only when the company shows sustained compliance, a stable supply chain, and a mature safety culture, not just a short burst of good performance.

Why the cap matters beyond the factory

The FAA’s posture matters well beyond the factory in Washington state. The 737 MAX is the backbone of many carriers’ fleet plans, and the production cap limits how fast new planes can reach carriers that want to renew or grow networks.

• Summer travel demand, new routes, and replacement of older aircraft all depend on a reliable stream of deliveries.
• For pilots and crew, the focus is on safe, repeatable work.
• For workers on the line, the message is that speed cannot outrun quality controls.
• For suppliers, every rate change reshapes hiring, training, and inventory decisions that ripple through local economies.

The FAA has kept public updates flowing since the Alaska Airlines accident, including corrective orders and progress reports. The agency has also posted regular background on MAX oversight measures, which remain in force regardless of the monthly rate. Readers can follow official updates at the FAA Boeing 737 MAX Updates page. Regulators state that even if rates rise, added checks and in-person audits will continue.

Policy oversight and timeline

The core of the FAA’s plan is simple: test first, decide later. According to Bedford, the agency and Boeing are now building tabletop exercises that will simulate a ramp in detail—step by step, station by station. These drills will press on risk points that have caused trouble in the past:

• Missing or mis-installed parts during join-up
• Out-of-sequence rework that causes delays or hides defects
• Paperwork gaps that misstate completion of key tasks
• Supply chain shortages that trigger last-minute substitutions
• Training mismatches when new workers join or tasks shift

Officials say they expect to finish the exercises by the end of September 2025. Only after that, and only if Boeing makes a formal request to increase the cap, will the FAA begin to evaluate whether a higher rate is safe. As of August 26, 2025, Boeing had not submitted such a request, according to regulator briefings. The schedule to decide remains open, because the agency refuses to set a date that might erode pressure to show real and steady progress.

Boeing’s changes and FAA scrutiny

The context is a long road of recovery. After the January 2024 panel blowout, the FAA deepened factory surveillance and focused on culture and systems, not just the fix at hand. Boeing responded with changes such as:

• Digitized training packages
• RFID tracking to follow parts and tasks
• 1,300 Employee Involvement Teams aimed at finding and fixing root causes

The company says these teams are helping build in-process checks that make errors less likely and easier to catch. Bedrock controls, like torque checks and sign-offs, now receive tighter scrutiny and more frequent audits with FAA staff on site.

The FAA also signaled a tighter leash by extending the program that delegates certain inspection work to Boeing for only three years rather than five. The shorter term reflects the view that processes have improved but still need time to mature. As Bedford put it, the agency will not “let its guard down” until it sees a proven pattern over months—not weeks—of stable quality outcomes and supply chain performance.

If, and only if, the drills go well and a formal request arrives, the FAA’s evaluation will use the tabletop outputs to test whether the proposed rate increase has enough staffing, training, parts coverage, and inspection capacity to be safe. The next notch up, if approved, could be 42 aircraft per month in the near term, with a longer-term target sometimes discussed at 52 per month. Regulators stress that those numbers are targets, not promises; they depend on evidence, not confidence alone.

The five-step process before any cap lift

1) Scenario-Based Planning
– The FAA and Boeing complete tabletop exercises that simulate a production ramp, with special focus on quality checks, training handoffs, and supplier parts flow.
– The goal is to find failure points early and build a clear response plan for each.

2) Completion of Exercises
– The drills are expected to wrap up by the end of September 2025.
– Results will feed a playbook that shows how Boeing would avoid or contain errors at a higher speed.

3) Formal Request from Boeing
– After the exercises, Boeing must submit a formal request to raise output.
– The FAA says it will not start any rate review without that request.

4) FAA Evaluation Based on Evidence
– Regulators will test the request against the tabletop playbook, with emphasis on sustained compliance, supply chain robustness, and a mature safety culture.
– The evaluation will include ongoing factory audits and weekly reviews, which will continue regardless of any rate change.

5) Decision
– If all criteria are met, the FAA will consider lifting the cap.
– A move to 42 per month could come first; a later 52 per month remains a longer-term target, not a set plan.

Production, supply chain, and industry impact

Boeing’s recent production profile shows some stability. After dipping to 35 in June, output returned to 38 in July. That month’s deliveries—an estimated 37 MAX jets—hint at better flow, but the FAA is watching for a long stretch of consistent results. Quality escapes can hide for weeks or months if build records are unclear or if rework occurs out of sequence. The agency’s push for digitized training and RFID tracking aims to make those escapes less likely and faster to catch.

The supply chain remains a pressure point. A rate increase only works if thousands of parts arrive in the right order and quality, day after day. Small shops and mid-sized suppliers often struggle with swings in demand:

• Hire too fast and quality can slip
• Hire too slow and the line starves

The tabletop drills will map how far each key supplier can stretch while holding quality. That includes simple items like fasteners and complex ones like flight control systems. Logistics, including shipping times and inspection backlogs, must also fit the model.

For airlines, the near-term question is how to plan fleet use into late 2025 and 2026:

• If the FAA approves a move to 42 per month, delivery slots could open modestly.
• If the cap holds at 38, carriers may juggle aircraft swaps and route plans longer than they hoped.
• Certification delays for the MAX 7 and MAX 10 into 2026 add complexity to build sequencing and customer support.

Mixed fleets strain pilot training and parts stocking, requiring more planning from maintenance teams and often increasing costs for carriers that built schedules around receiving new variants sooner.

Markers the FAA will watch

The FAA’s one message: prove it first. The regulator will require evidence, not promises.

Key markers that matter most:

• Evidence that training programs are being used and produce repeatable results, especially for newer hires
• Clear, complete build records that match physical work, including torque, fastener, and seal checks
• Supplier capacity plans that hold at higher rates without unusual scrap or defect spikes
• A stable rate at 38 per month with low rework and few quality escapes over an extended period
• Transparent reporting to the FAA, with no surprises during audits or weekly line reviews

If those markers hold, the case for a higher rate gets stronger. If they do not, the production cap stays put and the company and its partners will need more time. Either way, the path is clear: finish the tabletop exercises, file a formal request, and let the evidence decide.

Human and economic stakes

The human side of this story runs through factories, supplier shops, airline hangars, and the flight deck:

• Line workers want the time and tools to do the job right.
• Supervisors want checklists and schedules that match reality.
• Supplier managers want forecasts they can meet without too much overtime or rework.
• Pilots and cabin crew want aircraft that arrive ready for service.

Each group has felt the strain when speed and quality fall out of balance. The FAA’s scenario-based planning tries to rebuild that balance by asking hard questions now, not later.

Investors want clarity on timing, but the FAA will not speed the clock. The three-year extension of delegated inspections, shorter than the usual five, shows regulators see progress but want a longer proof period. Bedford’s remark—that improvements are “real, but still embryonic”—is a reminder that an upward rate change is a privilege earned by performance. The production cap remains the tool the FAA uses to hold that line.

Near-term outlook

• The earliest window for a decision on a rate change would open only after the drills conclude and Boeing files a request.
• Even then, the agency has set no date.
• 42 per month remains a near-term goal discussed by the company; 52 per month sits farther out.
• The backlog of 4,856 unfilled orders continues to anchor demand and planning across the industry.

For now, Boeing’s July estimate of 37 MAX deliveries and the stabilized 38-per-month output suggest some regained footing after the June dip. The company’s internal reforms—RFID tracking, digitized training, and Employee Involvement Teams—are designed to keep that footing as pressure to go faster returns. Airlines watch closely, as do investors, but the FAA’s view remains the deciding factor.

In short, the next weeks and months are about planning, not production. The scenario-based planning model demands that Boeing and the FAA agree on what “safe to ramp” looks like in practical steps, not general claims. If those answers add up, the cap could rise. If not, the rate will hold where it is until the answers improve.

For official notices, directives, and status changes, see the FAA’s resource page: FAA Boeing 737 MAX Updates.