FAA Still Weighs Boeing 737 MAX Production Cap at 38 Per Month

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The Federal Aviation Administration is keeping Boeing’s monthly output of the 737 MAX at its current level while the agency weighs whether to lift the production cap of 38 aircraft per month. As of September 9, 2025, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the agency has not received any recommendations from its front-line inspectors to increase production, a key signal that required milestones remain unmet.

“Progress is being made. It may not be as fast as Boeing would like, but it is as fast as we can reasonably move through the process,” Bedford said, noting that no inspector recommendations have come forward yet, which means “the work is still ongoing.”

Background: Why the Cap Exists

The cap has been in place since early 2024, imposed after a January 5, 2024 incident when a door plug separated from an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 shortly after takeoff. That event prompted a sweeping FAA response:

• Heightened presence on Boeing’s factory floors
• Sustained quality audits
• An insistence on clear, data-supported milestones before any move to raise production

The agency’s message remains steady: safety and verifiable quality controls set the tempo, not corporate timelines.

Boeing has publicly stated it wants to lift output to 42 aircraft per month by the end of 2025, with a longer-term goal toward 47 units per month. In July 2025, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg expressed confidence the company would soon request approval for a higher rate, citing steady progress in internal performance measures. The FAA’s process, however, depends on a bottom-up assessment led by front-line inspectors reviewing whether Boeing’s corrective actions are producing sustained, measurable results.

FAA’s Process and Ongoing Oversight

The FAA’s assessment system includes several key elements:

• A series of scenario-based “tabletop exercises” with Boeing, planned to run through the end of September 2025. These test Boeing’s response to specific risk scenarios and operational challenges.
• An enhanced onsite presence at Boeing’s Renton, Washington facility and at Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, Kansas (where key fuselage components are built).
• Consideration of using an independent third party to run quality reviews, reflecting close tracking of systemic issues uncovered after the 2024 incident.

Earlier this year, the FAA renewed Boeing’s Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) for three years. ODA allows Boeing employees, under strict FAA oversight, to perform certain inspections and approvals. The renewal came with conditions:

• Boeing must follow through on a comprehensive action plan to address known quality-control issues.
• Milestones must be shared and understood by both Boeing and the regulator.
• The FAA has repeatedly emphasized timelines are driven by safety data, not by Boeing’s desired pace or market pressure.

Important: The FAA’s stance is that speed cannot come at the expense of the checks that keep the flying public safe.

What Must Happen Before Any Increase

The FAA has laid out a step-by-step framework for any change to the 737 MAX output. Key required steps include:

1. Complete mandated corrective actions and submit a comprehensive plan addressing all audit findings.
2. Run scenario-based tabletop exercises with the FAA to evaluate readiness and stress-test risk controls.
3. Receive recommendations from front-line FAA inspectors to lift the cap, based on data and progress against agreed milestones.
4. FAA review of the full package of findings and recommendations before making a final decision.

• None of these steps are tied to a fixed calendar date.
• The end-of-September tabletop exercises are a checkpoint, not a final deadline.
• If the exercises reveal gaps, additional work would be required before any change is considered.

From Boeing’s perspective, achieving 42 per month by late 2025 and later 47 depends on:

• Steady factory performance
• Consistent supplier quality
• Clear proof that internal systems catch issues early and fixes remain effective

Impacts Across Airlines, Workers, and Travelers

The FAA’s approach has direct effects across the aviation ecosystem:

• Airlines and lessors: A cap at 38 per month can stretch delivery schedules, affecting fleet modernization, route planning, and frequency increases.
• Factory workers and suppliers: The cap defines daily workload, staffing plans, training, and supplier cadence.
• Travelers: Delivery delays can shape route availability and fares in some markets.

Benefits of the cautious approach:

• Maintains stability and safety over speed.
• Gives Boeing time to demonstrate that quality programs deliver stable results across shifts, stations, and suppliers.
• Helps rebuild public confidence by relying on data-backed improvements rather than promises.

Labor unions and safety advocates generally support the FAA’s stance because it reduces the risk of rushed production leading to systemic issues.

How Tabletop Exercises Fit In

Tabletop exercises simulate stress conditions to confirm whether fixes are embedded in daily operations. They assess scenarios such as:

• A batch of parts showing defects
• Whether a check station flags problems
• Whether the response contains the issue without propagation across the production line

The FAA expects these exercises to conclude by the end of September 2025, after which findings will inform decisions. If inspectors validate Boeing’s progress, the FAA could consider a rate increase; if not, the cap remains.

Broader FAA Agenda and Industry Context

The FAA’s oversight of Boeing sits alongside other major responsibilities:

• A $12.5 billion modernization of the national air traffic control system
• Building rules for drones
• Revisiting standards for supersonic aircraft

These concurrent priorities highlight why reliable, well-built aircraft are essential to the broader system. Issues caught late can add pressure across factory floors, certification teams, and airlines.

Industry effects beyond Boeing:

• Competing programs, leasing markets, and maintenance shops adjust plans based on delivery forecasts.
• Analysts note a trend toward giving more weight to front-line reports and measured milestones rather than top-down schedules.
• The people closest to the work—the inspectors and auditors—are playing a central role in timing any change.

Key Takeaways for Stakeholders

• Airlines planning fleets into 2026 should model both scenarios: continued production at 38 per month and a possible move to 42 late in the year.
• Lessors and suppliers should prepare for either outcome by building quality capacity and avoiding shortcuts.
• Travelers can expect continued service; carriers will adjust plans to manage capacity.
• The final decision rests on inspector recommendations, followed by FAA leadership review.

Quote to watch for: If front-line inspectors recommend lifting the production cap, it means data and milestones point in the right direction. If those recommendations don’t come, it means more work is needed.

Where to Find Official Updates

For official updates on the Alaska Airlines 737-9 MAX and related oversight actions, the FAA maintains a dedicated page with current notices and background materials:

• FAA updates on Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft

That page is the best place to check for new directives, inspection summaries, or changes to oversight measures as the end-of-September exercises approach.

Final Outlook

• The pathway is clear: fix, test, verify, then decide.
• A move to 42 per month by the end of 2025 remains possible, but only if inspector-backed data supports it.
• The longer-term target of 47 depends on the same logic—prove readiness, then scale.
• The FAA’s approach since early 2024 remains consistent: act on data, set clear expectations, and keep safety as the fixed point.