Exeter At Risk as UK Tightens International Student Rules

(Exeter) The University of Exeter is among a group of UK institutions facing heightened risk under new student visa policies coming into force as of September 16, 2025, with tougher compliance rules, public ratings, and a shorter post‑study work period for international students. The Home Office measures, aimed at tightening oversight in recruitment and retention, set new thresholds for enrollment, course completion, and visa refusal rates. Universities that miss these targets could face formal penalties that limit their ability to sponsor students, a direct threat to campuses that depend on global enrollments.

Under the plan, universities must meet three linked benchmarks: at least 95% of international students must enroll, at least 90% must complete their courses, and visa refusal rates must remain under 5%. Sector leaders warn that a small rise in refusals or withdrawals can push an institution over the line, especially in subjects where attrition is historically higher. For Exeter, which has leaned on steady growth in overseas admissions, the tolerance for error is now much narrower, and the consequences for missing the targets are more severe.

The government is also rolling out the Agent Quality Framework, or AQF, which will be mandatory for any institution that uses education agents. In simple terms, the AQF is a set of rules that require tighter checks on the agents who help recruit students abroad. It is designed to reduce bad practices, such as misleading promises about work rights or course outcomes. Schools that rely on large agent networks will need to audit their partners, retrain staff, and cut ties with those that fail quality checks. That adds new costs and administrative work, but non‑compliance risks a higher public risk rating and sponsor action.

A new Red‑Amber‑Green rating, commonly called a RAG score, will be applied to each university. A “Green” rating signals a strong record and should support continued growth. An “Amber” or “Red” rating could lead to closer monitoring and, in stricter cases, curbs on sponsorship. This rating will be public, raising the stakes for reputation. A poor rating could lead prospective international students to pick a competitor in the UK or in another country with friendlier visa policies, dampening the recruitment pipeline even before any sanctions kick in.

At the same time, the Graduate Route—the visa that lets international students work in the UK after finishing their degree—will be cut from 24 months to 18 months. Students will have less time to find a job or move into another visa, such as the Skilled Worker route. Employers may be more cautious about hiring graduates if the timeline feels tight for sponsorship decisions. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the shorter window makes the UK look less attractive when stacked against countries that still offer longer post‑study options. Students who count on work experience to repay loans or build a resume could find the new time limit especially tough.

The government is also proposing an international student levy of 6% on tuition fees. Universities already stretched by inflation and domestic fee caps may try to absorb some of the levy, but finance teams warn that part of the cost could be passed on to students. If that happens, the total price of a UK degree would rise for international families at the very moment work rights are being reduced. That mix—higher cost, stricter compliance, shorter work time—creates a pressure point for universities like Exeter that have invested in global growth.

Policy changes and official expectations

Officials say the goal is to ensure the student route is used for real study and that sponsors meet high standards across admissions, progression, and visa compliance. The Home Office has told universities to produce detailed action plans showing how they will reach the 95% enrollment, 90% completion, and under 5% refusal thresholds; how they will implement the AQF; and how they will prepare for the RAG rating system.

Institutions that fall short risk sanctions under their student sponsor license. Official guidance for sponsors, including compliance duties and monitoring, is available on the UK government’s Student sponsor guidance.

Practical measures universities are expected to take

• Tighten pre‑CAS checks to lower refusal rates (clearer English and financial screening).
• Track early warning signs for students at risk of dropping out.
• Flag non‑attendance quickly and provide faster academic support.
• Improve pastoral care to boost course completion.
• Produce action plans demonstrating how thresholds will be met.

These measures are familiar across the sector, but the new thresholds significantly raise the bar.

The Agent Quality Framework (AQF)

The AQF will change how universities work with agents. Key implications:
– More selective partnerships and audits of agent performance.
– Retraining of staff who manage agent relationships.
– Live performance dashboards and stricter marketing rules for agents.
– Potential reduction in the size of agent lists or bringing recruitment in‑house.
– Regional agreements with a few vetted partners to preserve volume while maintaining quality.

For Exeter, which recruits across multiple regions, this could mean deeper ties with fewer agencies and more direct outreach by university staff.

RAG rating: reputation and recruitment risk

The RAG score will be public and act as a new reputational signal:
– Green: Strong record; supports continued growth.
– Amber/Red: Closer monitoring; possible curbs on sponsorship.

A poor rating could deter prospective international students even before sanctions, reducing demand and affecting long‑term recruitment pipelines.

Important: The RAG rating is public and may influence prospective students’ choices as much as teaching quality or official rankings.

Impact on applicants and universities

For students and applicants

• Shortened Graduate Route (18 months) tightens the timeline to secure employment or switch to other visas.
• Graduates may need to target employers with faster hiring cycles or accept earlier offers.
• Career services will need to accelerate job‑readiness training and employer engagement.

Key questions prospective students and families should ask institutions:
1. What is the institution’s current completion rate for my course?
2. How does the university help students move into jobs within 18 months?
3. What employer links exist in my field, and how many graduates get offers?
4. Has the school changed its agent network under the AQF, and how will that affect advice and support?

For universities (financial and operational impact)

• A 6% levy on tuition fees may be partly absorbed by institutions or passed to students.
• Reduced intake or shifting demand could hit fee income quickly.
• Universities reliant on international fees to fund research and services may face:
  • Cost cuts
  • Delayed hiring
  • Course portfolio changes
• Planning must assume lower margins and greater scrutiny from governors and auditors.

University finance directors see this as both a timing and cash‑flow issue: lower intake can produce an immediate budget shock.

How Exeter is responding

Exeter and similar research‑intensive universities are taking concrete steps to meet the new tests:
– Strengthening career services and expanding industry projects.
– Improving pastoral care and academic support to lift completion rates.
– Reviewing assessment loads and timetables that can trip up incoming students.
– Upgrading financial checks to reduce refusal risk and early withdrawal.
– Deepening employer engagement, live projects, alumni mentoring and targeted pathways into high‑demand sectors.

These steps aim to make degrees more “job‑ready” within the shorter post‑study period, though they do not replace longer work rights.

Wider sector debate and outlook

Supporters of the Home Office plan argue that higher thresholds and the AQF will raise standards, reduce misuse, and improve public confidence. Critics counter that the UK may push away the very students who bring skills, spending, and long‑term links to British employers.

Sector bodies are pressing for a balanced approach that secures the visa system while avoiding shocks to regional economies built around universities. Policy watchers expect continued debate as ministers stress protection of the system and universities ask for transition timelines that avert sudden disruption.

For now, Exeter is treating the upcoming intake cycles as a test of whether stronger student support and closer employer ties can keep international interest high even as visa policies tighten.