China Condemns U.S. Plan to Bar Chinese Airlines From Russia’s Airspace

(RUSSIA/UNITED STATES (IMPLIED)) China has strongly condemned a U.S. proposal that would bar Chinese airlines from flying through Russian airspace on routes to and from the United States 🇺🇸, calling the plan a threat to global aviation and a move that would hurt international travel and American business interests. The proposed restriction, advanced in October 2025 by the U.S. Department of Transportation under President Trump, aims to address what Washington views as an unfair competitive advantage for Chinese carriers since many Western airlines have been shut out of Russian airspace since 2022.

At the core of the dispute is access to Russian airspace, a critical corridor for the shortest and most fuel-efficient routes linking Asia and North America. Following sanctions tied to the Ukraine conflict, U.S. and several Western carriers stopped flying over Russia in 2022, lengthening flight times, increasing fuel use, and raising costs. Chinese airlines, by contrast, continued to use the direct paths over Russia, often shaving hours off transpacific flights and gaining a price and schedule edge on some routes.

Under the U.S. proposal, the Transportation Department would amend foreign air carrier permits to prohibit Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace on U.S.-bound and outbound flights. The measure would not apply to cargo-only flights, a carveout that preserves freight operations but leaves most passenger routes exposed. Chinese officials warned the move would “hinder travel and people-to-people exchanges” and “harm American businesses,” urging Washington to reverse course and allow more time to evaluate the fallout for carriers and travelers with tickets already in hand.

Chinese airlines were reportedly given only two business days to respond, prompting seven major carriers—Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Xiamen Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Beijing Capital Airlines, and Sichuan Airlines—to request additional time to assess operational impacts. If implemented, the restriction could take effect as soon as November 2025, a fast timeline that heightens uncertainty for passengers, travel agents, and corporate travel programs planning late-year and early-2026 trips.

Policy details and timelines

• The Transportation Department seeks to modify existing foreign air carrier permits, the legal mechanism that allows foreign airlines to serve the United States.
• Amending those permits to restrict use of Russian airspace on specific routes is the tool Washington has chosen to “level the playing field,” since U.S. carriers cannot cross Russia due to sanctions and safety policies.
• The proposed change would cover passenger flights by Chinese airlines to and from U.S. destinations but would exclude cargo-only flights.
• If adopted, the restriction could begin as early as November 2025, pending any adjustments following the carriers’ request for more time to comment.
• The list of affected carriers includes: Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Xiamen Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Beijing Capital Airlines, and Sichuan Airlines.

For more on how foreign carrier access is regulated, see the U.S. Department of Transportation’s International Aviation resource: https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/international-aviation

Industry analysis and likely consequences

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the dispute marks a sharp escalation in U.S.-China aviation friction at a moment when international travel was still finding its footing after the pandemic. Industry experts warn of several likely outcomes:

• Route cancellations and fewer nonstop services on key city pairs.
• More one-stop itineraries routed through third countries (e.g., Middle East or Northeast Asia).
• Higher fares on surviving nonstop services due to longer flight times and increased fuel burn.
• Redistribution of market share among global alliances, affecting frequent flyer benefits and corporate travel contracts.

Operational and financial impacts on airlines

U.S. carriers have argued since 2022 that, without access to Russian airspace, some direct flights between the U.S. East Coast and China are barely profitable. Specific operational pressures include:

• Longer routings that may force weight restrictions (fewer passengers or less cargo) to meet fuel requirements for extended journeys.
• Reduced revenue per flight and more complex scheduling, especially during winter when headwinds across the Pacific strengthen.
• Needs for additional technical stops and refueling points, adding visa, ground handling costs, and potential curfew conflicts.
• Tightened crew duty limits and more complex crew scheduling.

Chinese carriers and officials counter that the move would inject more instability into a fragile recovery and could disrupt many already-booked itineraries. They also argue the measure would hurt U.S. businesses that depend on fast links to China for deal-making, supply-chain oversight, and customer support.

Passenger and cargo consequences

For travelers, the immediate risks are practical and personal:

• Schedule changes, longer total travel times, and higher fares.
• Fewer nonstop options, especially on routes that rely on Russian airspace for viability.
• Increased connections and potential delays for families, students, and small businesses.
• Greater stress for those with time-sensitive travel (visa interviews, green-card activation, university deadlines).

Cargo implications:

• The proposal excludes freighters, preserving dedicated air-freight operations.
• However, reduced passenger flights mean less bellyhold cargo capacity, potentially pushing shipments to freighters at higher rates.
• Longer routes cause volatile fuel surcharges and higher shipping costs for electronics, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive goods.

Important: Chinese officials argued the two-day response window was insufficient to assess crew duty-time changes, aircraft range tradeoffs, and the need for new technical stops. They requested more time to study operational and safety impacts.

Geopolitical and broader economic context

• China has recently tightened exports of rare-earth minerals, adding to tensions with the United States and contributing to a tit-for-tat dynamic.
• Russia has hinted that U.S.-Russia air travel could resume by late 2025, but no firm agreement exists. If Russian corridors reopen to Western carriers, the competitive balance could shift again.
• The Transportation Department under President Trump moved the proposal forward; future actions by the administration or Congress could alter timing, enforcement, or the freighter carveout.
• Industry groups are expected to file comments focused on safety, operability, and consumer impact if the comment window expands beyond the initial two days.

What to expect next — timing and planning

• Stakeholders will watch for signals from the White House and Congress about whether the rule should stand, be softened, or be tied to broader negotiations with Beijing and Moscow.
• Airlines are already planning for a tougher winter and spring: fewer nonstops, more technical stops, and tighter crew scheduling.
• If the ban takes effect in November 2025, early-2026 schedules will likely reflect these new assumptions.

Practical advice for travelers and institutions

• Travelers (especially immigrants, students, and families) should consider booking flexible tickets where possible.
• Travel agents, university international offices, and corporate travel managers may need to build in extra buffers for plans tied to fixed dates.
• Expect more one-stop options through hubs outside Russian airspace; plan for changed frequent-flyer and corporate-travel benefits.

Key takeaways

• The U.S. proposal aims to equalize routing restrictions by amending foreign air carrier permits to bar Chinese passenger flights from Russian airspace.
• The move could begin as soon as November 2025, but the short comment window and potential political maneuvering leave outcomes uncertain.
• Passengers, airlines, shippers, and businesses face tangible risks: longer itineraries, higher costs, fewer nonstop choices, and ripple effects across travel and trade.
• Cargo-only flights remain exempt, but bellyhold capacity reductions could still squeeze freight markets.

China warns of disruption and urges reconsideration. Washington frames the proposal as a fairness and safety response to continued exclusion of U.S. carriers from Russian airspace. With both sides signaling potential escalation, the coming weeks will be pivotal for winter schedules and for travelers deciding when—and how—to fly.