(CANADA) — The Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer projected on February 26, 2026, that Canada will record zero population growth in 2026 after Ottawa imposed sharp immigration cuts aimed at easing pressure on housing and infrastructure.
The forecast of flat growth, a rare outcome for a country long shaped by immigration-led expansion, follows a late-2025 slowdown and a policy reset that targets both permanent admissions and the flow of temporary workers and students.
The Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer tied the outlook to the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually and targets new temporary arrivals at 385,000 in 2026.
Those figures underpin a shift toward zero population growth, as policymakers seek to slow inflows after years of record increases and rising public concern about housing and service capacity.
Canada’s population growth will remain flat at 0.0% in 2026, the Parliamentary Budget Officer projected, marking the second consecutive year of zero growth after a 0.2% decline in late 2025.
The report framed the new outlook as a product of tighter controls on both permanent residents and temporary residents, a category that includes international students and work permit holders.
Ottawa’s plan cuts the previously planned permanent-resident level of 500,000 to 380,000 annually for 2026–2028, a reset that slows the pace of long-term growth even as the government maintains an immigration system weighted toward economic objectives.
At the same time, Canada set a target of 385,000 new temporary arrivals in 2026, a 43% drop from 2025 levels, in an effort to reduce the temporary-resident share from a peak of 7.6% (Oct 2024) to less than 5% by 2027.
Policy tightening accelerated as leaders argued that rapid population gains outpaced housing construction and strained infrastructure, pushing the government to prioritize “control and consistency” over growth.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged the political shift in late 2024, saying, “We didn’t get the balance quite right.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in early 2025, later described a mandate to “restore control, clarity, and consistency” to the immigration system, reinforcing the direction set in the Immigration Levels Plan.
The government’s plan also signals a rebalancing inside the permanent stream, with economic-class immigrants expected to comprise 64% of all new permanent residents by 2027.
Officials set a heavy “in-Canada” focus to transition current workers to permanent resident status, a design intended to rely more on people already living in Canada even as overall targets drop.
The Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer’s projection arrives as other official projections, including long-range demographic modeling, continue to track different scenarios than policy targets set by the government.
Statistics Canada publishes separate demographic outlooks that can differ from annual immigration targets, reflecting assumptions over decades rather than near-term caps and program rules.
The policy reset also sits inside a charged political backdrop in Canada and in the United States, where senior figures in the Trump administration have cited Canada’s changes in border and immigration policy in their own messaging.
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on October 24, 2024: “Even Justin Trudeau wants to close Canada’s borders. We are the only ‘stupid ones’ that allow people, including hundreds of thousands of criminals, to freely come into the United States through our ridiculous ‘open borders’ policy. U.S. policy must be corrected.”
Tom Homan, White House Border Czar, issued an official statement on February 17, 2026, after the introduction of Canada’s Strong Borders Act, saying the administration remains “unwilling to agree to demands” that would weaken federal enforcement at the northern border.
Homan also said the United States is maintaining “unabated” deportation operations despite a partial DHS shutdown in early 2026.
The DHS Secretary issued an official notification on April 10, 2025, announcing a “Notification of Temporary Travel Restrictions” for land ports of entry between the U.S. and Canada.
That notice limited travel to “essential travel” as part of coordination with Canada’s increased border security measures, linking U.S. port-of-entry operations to policy shifts on the Canadian side.
Inside Canada, legislative changes also played a role in tightening the system, including new measures aimed at asylum claims tied to crossings from the United States.
The Strong Borders Act, known as Bill C-2, was introduced in June 2025 with stated objectives to tighten border and asylum rules.
The bill makes claims ineligible if filed more than 14 days after crossing the U.S. border, a rule that affects how quickly claimants must act after arriving from the United States.
Officials have also pointed to coordination with U.S. border policy, including references to travel restrictions and enforcement alignment, as the two countries respond to cross-border pressures and shifting political priorities.
For immigration lawyers and settlement providers, the rule creates a hard timing threshold that can shape advice to clients who enter Canada after crossing the U.S. border and consider an asylum claim.
The combined cuts have immediate implications for residents and applicants, especially those on time-limited permits who previously expected to renew status or transition to permanent residence.
Approximately 385,000 work permit holders are expected to leave Canada in 2026 as their permits expire without renewal pathways, a figure that mirrors the government’s new temporary-arrivals target and underscores how departures drive the net slowdown.
Universities and colleges also face a changed planning environment as Canada reduces study permit approvals compared with earlier peaks.
Study permit approvals have been cut by more than 50% compared to 2023 peaks, narrowing access for prospective students and increasing uncertainty for institutions that rely on international enrollment.
Canada also raised the financial threshold for students, with single applicants now required to show a minimum of $22,895 in living funds, a compliance requirement that can determine eligibility and affect student budgeting.
Advocates warned that tighter targets and fewer transition options can create status risks, particularly for people who lose a pathway to remain and seek work while trying to stay in Canada.
Reduced targets have led to what advocates call “one of the most egregious rollbacks of migrant rights,” and they said the changes can push some people into “exploitative jobs” or undocumented status as they seek to remain in Canada.
The capacity argument sits at the center of the government’s rationale, with officials tying lower inflows to a near-term easing of demand pressures in the housing market.
Ottawa estimates that pausing population growth will reduce the housing supply gap by approximately 670,000 units by the end of 2027, linking demographic changes to the scale of unmet housing need.
That estimate reinforces the government’s claim that slower growth makes it easier to plan public services and infrastructure, from transit to health systems, in line with demand.
The Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer’s projection of 0.0% growth for 2026 also functions as a benchmark for assessing whether immigration cuts translate into the demographic slowdown the government intends.
In practical terms, the plan combines reduced admissions and reduced temporary inflows with a goal of lowering the temporary-resident share of the population, a central feature of the current policy direction.
The emphasis on an economic-class-heavy permanent mix, rising to 64% by 2027, also highlights how the government aims to preserve labor-market selection while constraining overall numbers.
At the same time, the “in-Canada” focus points to a system that increasingly selects from residents already in the country, even as fewer new temporary residents enter and more permit holders depart when documents expire.
People tracking ongoing changes can verify updates by checking the official publications that set the numbers and the rules, including the IRCC 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan and Statistics Canada’s Population Projections for Canada (2025 to 2075).
Border and asylum changes flow through legislative text and government releases tied to Bill C-2, while Canada–U.S. coordination announcements can also appear through updates posted by the U.S. government, including the DHS Newsroom & Notifications and USCIS Official Announcements.
Canadian Budget Officer Warns Zero Population Growth Follows Immigration Cuts
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer projects zero population growth in 2026 following sharp immigration cuts. By reducing permanent residency targets to 380,000 and slashing temporary resident flows, the government aims to bridge the housing supply gap. New policies, including the Strong Borders Act, emphasize economic-class arrivals and stricter asylum rules, marking a significant shift from the country’s long-standing model of rapid, immigration-led expansion.
