(CANADA) Canada’s Startup Visa survived a sweeping immigration overhaul in Ottawa but now faces a fractured timeline that starkly changes what founders can expect. The program remains in place, yet Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada lists an estimated processing time of more than 10 years for new filings as of October 2025, a radical turn for entrepreneurs who were once told permanent residence could arrive in six months. The shift affects venture-backed founders, designated investors, and incubators across Canada 🇨🇦, who must plan around long waits while Ottawa scales down overall newcomer volumes and resets expectations.
Program status and government targets
The government kept the Startup Visa within its 2026–2028 immigration blueprint and set a target of 500 admissions a year, with actual outcomes expected to range from 250 to 1,000 depending on volumes and capacity. Those figures sit inside a broader retrenchment:
- Temporary residents are slated to drop from 673,650 in 2025 to 370,000 by 2028.
- Permanent resident targets have been trimmed for the next three years.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney (took office March 2025) has said the aim is to bring immigration down to “sustainable levels,” a message shaping how Ottawa sequences business immigration alongside family and refugee commitments.
The backlog and processing-time problem
The immediate obstacle for Startup Visa applicants is the ballooning queue. Officials estimate roughly 43,200 pending applications, more than double the nearly 20,000 cases that prompted action 18 months earlier.
- Between April 2024 and October 2025, the backlog grew by over 23,000 files even after stricter intake limits took effect.
- As of July 2025, about 16,370 applications had been in the system for over 24 months.
For founders, these are concrete constraints. A program marketed in 2013 as a direct, quick pathway now requires patience and deep runway, with the processing time metric overshadowing almost every other planning decision for startups and investors.
Uneven timelines by application year
Timelines also differ sharply by application year, adding unpredictability:
- Entrepreneurs who filed in 2020 are estimated to have roughly one month left.
- Those who applied in 2021 still face about 37 months.
Practical consequences include changing valuations, product obsolescence, and team turnover while files sit. Incubators and venture funds report juggling cohorts: some founders secure status this year while others from later intakes wait three to four more years. That makes synchronized programs and funding tied to Canadian milestones difficult.
Policy adjustments to soften the wait
Ottawa has introduced measures to ease the impact of long processing times:
- Effective October 3, 2024, Startup Visa applicants became eligible for three-year open work permits. This replaced the old one-year closed permit and allows founders to work for any employer in Canada while they build their ventures.
- Benefits: founders can keep paying the bills, hire locally, and take on contract or advisory work during multi-year waits.
- Official guidance: IRCC: Start-up Visa Program
- Intake discipline: from April 30, 2024 through December 31, 2026, each designated entity is capped at supporting no more than 10 startups per year. This aims to curb unchecked intake and stabilize the system but limits deal flow for venture funds and incubators.
- Priority consideration:
- Applications supported by at least CAD 75,000 in Canadian capital, or by business incubators inside Canada’s Tech Network, receive quicker processing.
- In practice, some in-Canada founders with active company-building ties have seen permanent residence in as little as 15 months, although that is exceptional.
Reduced ceilings and their effects
The queue pressure is compounded by lower category ceilings:
- Startup Visa annual maximums reduced from 7,000 to 3,000 in 2025, and from 8,000 to 2,000 in both 2026 and 2027.
- Earlier targets were scaled back from 5,000 in 2024 to 2,000 in 2025.
These adjustments reflect a broader overhaul that trims overall permanent resident targets to:
- 395,000 in 2025
- 380,000 in 2026
- 365,000 in 2027
For founders, lower caps mean fewer landing spots even when files are ready, extending the backlog’s tail through the 2026–2028 plan period.
Human impact: speed vs. endurance
On the ground, the story is about time and uncertainty. Startups rely on speed. Customers, investors, and key hires expect clear timelines. When a permanent residence path stretches to a decade:
- Some founders relocate to other hubs offering quicker status and less risk.
- Others remain in Canada on temporary permits while advancing product and revenue.
- Incubators face recruitment challenges; they must explain that strong companies may still sit in the queue for years.
For incubators and funds, the fractured timeline complicates program design and fundraising tied to Canadian milestones.
Practical choices for founders now
While the system tightens, founders can weigh several practical options:
- Use the three-year open work permit if eligible — allows paid roles and local hiring while building.
- Pursue priority pathways:
- Secure CAD 75,000 in Canadian backing, or
- Join a Tech Network incubator to potentially reduce processing time.
- Plan financial and staffing runway for multi-year waits — focus on cash flow, milestones, and market risk management.
- Consider alternative jurisdictions if quick status is essential for growth.
“The Startup Visa’s promise has tilted from speed to endurance,” according to analysis by VisaVerge.com. Planning is now centered on cash flow, staffing, and market risk over several years rather than a quick residency outcome.
What remains relevant and the big question
Keeping the Startup Visa in the 2026–2028 plan matters. It signals that business immigration remains part of Canada’s long-term strategy even as volumes are reset.
- Officials emphasize flexibility in the 250–1,000 admissions range and point to priority lanes as evidence that well-backed founders can still land faster.
- Yet the dominant factor for founders right now is the processing time — it shapes term sheets, hiring plans, and decisions about where teams live while their files wait.
With the 2026–2028 framework public and the backlog still rising, the Startup Visa’s next chapter may depend less on new policy and more on how quickly Ottawa can process the existing mountain of cases.
This Article in a Nutshell
Canada preserved the Startup Visa in its 2026–2028 immigration blueprint but processing times have surged—IRCC estimates more than ten years for new filings as of October 2025. The plan targets 500 admissions annually (250–1,000 range) amid reduced permanent-resident ceilings. A backlog of roughly 43,200 applications and uneven waits by filing year force founders to plan multi-year runways. Ottawa introduced three-year open work permits, intake caps, and priority lanes (CAD 75,000 or Tech Network incubators) to soften impacts.
