Breaking: Canada Sees Large Decrease in Temporary Resident Arrivals

(CANADA) Canada is moving quickly to bring down the number of temporary residents after several years of record inflows, with new federal limits already reshaping who can come to study, work, and visit. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has set a target of 673,650 new temporary resident arrivals in 2025, followed by a deeper cut to 516,600 in 2026 and a modest rise to 543,600 in 2027. The government says this reset is needed to ease pressure on housing, healthcare, and public services, and to make temporary migration more manageable over the long term.

IRCC has also set a clear overall goal: bring temporary residents down to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Early data show the shift is already visible. In the first quarter of 2025, IRCC approved 96,015 study permits, 186,805 work permits, and 273,990 visitor visas—numbers lower than comparable recent periods for study and work permits. In July 2025, overall international arrivals (including Canadians returning from abroad) fell 15.6% year over year to 6.3 million, compared with 7.5 million in July 2024. While non‑resident arrivals by air edged up 3.1% to 1.4 million, the broader trend points downward as tighter rules take hold across programs.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, these early numbers are consistent with the planned reduction path and will likely deepen as 2025 advances.

Policy shift and targets

Canada’s rebalancing responds to an extraordinary period of growth in temporary residents. By late 2023, the country had more than 2.5 million non‑permanent residents, placing strain on schools, hospitals, and municipalities. Ottawa began tightening program rules in 2024, and in October 2024 unveiled the 2025–2027 plan now guiding temporary resident levels.

Key elements driving the decline in arrivals:
– Temporary residents to 5% of population by end of 2026. A clear, time‑bound objective.
– Annual targets: 673,650 (2025), 516,600 (2026), 543,600 (2027).
– Study permit cap: A 10% reduction in 2025, with attestation processes and stricter checks.
– Work permit changes (TFWP & IMP): Pauses on low‑wage LMIAs in high‑unemployment regions; narrower access to spousal open work permits (SOWPs).
– PNP shift: Provinces must allocate 75% of PNP nominations to people already in Canada.

Visitor movement remains mixed. Q1 2025 visitor visa approvals were still relatively high, but summer arrivals show the broader cooling effect anticipated by federal officials.

For international students, changes mean fewer study spaces, tighter Post‑Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility, and higher cost‑of‑living thresholds. Employers using temporary worker pathways face new regional and sectoral limits. Provinces are cutting nominee quotas and prioritizing in‑Canada candidates, with some jurisdictions—like British Columbia—notably reducing allocations.

“These measures aim to ensure the sustainability of Canada’s immigration system” — federal officials emphasize links to housing, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Implementation details affecting applications

The framework is nationwide, but practical effects vary by applicant, employer, and province. IRCC and Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) apply changes through standard reviews—however, the bar for approval is higher.

Study permits

• Cap and attestation: Schools must operate within their capped intake and issue attestation letters accordingly.
• Financial proof: Students must show stronger funds to cover tuition and living costs to prevent hardship after arrival.
• PGWP restrictions: Tighter rules, especially for shorter programs and some fields—students should confirm program qualification ahead of applying.
• Q1 snapshot: 96,015 study permits approved in Q1 2025; numbers expected to fall as caps are enforced.

Work permits

• Regional and sector rules: Low‑wage LMIA applications paused in regions with high unemployment. Employers must demonstrate genuine shortages and appropriate wages.
• Focus areas: Health care, skilled trades, and agriculture prioritized; predictable results for compliant employers.
• Spouses and partners: SOWPs now face more checks and limits tied to the principal applicant’s job type or study program.
• Q1 snapshot: 186,805 work permits approved in Q1 2025.

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

• Quota and focus: Provinces received smaller allocations; 75% of nominations must go to candidates already in Canada.
• Local adjustments: Some provinces (e.g., B.C.) reportedly halved allocations and are prioritizing in‑province graduates and local workers.

Visitor visas and overall flows

• Approvals vs. arrivals: Q1 2025 visitor visa approvals were 273,990, yet July total international arrivals fell 15.6% year over year to 6.3 million. Non‑resident air arrivals grew 3.1%, reflecting short‑term variation as policy effects unfold.

IRCC is also modernizing systems, rolling out a new online account in 2025–2026 to improve communication and case tracking. Federal and provincial consultations continue, with officials open to adjustments based on labour data or evidence of stronger student support.

Impact on students, workers, employers, and provinces

International students

• Fewer spaces, tougher proof: The 10% cap, higher funds required, and stricter PGWP rules increase competition and reduce post‑graduation work options.
• Program choice matters: Short programs and some fields may no longer qualify for PGWPs, affecting career and settlement plans.
• School responsibilities: Institutions must control intake, plan housing, and provide stronger academic advising.
• Practical tip: Check the latest PGWP rules and seek program confirmation from institutions; plan for higher living costs and slower processing.

Temporary foreign workers

• Regional limits: LMIA pauses for low‑wage roles restrict hiring in high‑unemployment regions, forcing employers to rethink job design and wages.
• Critical sectors favored: Workers in health care, agriculture, and skilled trades may find steadier options if employers meet standards.
• Family impact: SOWP changes reduce work access for some partners; couples should plan for single‑earner scenarios in high‑cost areas.

Employers

• Smaller candidate pool: Competition for talent already in Canada will increase; emphasis on retention of current foreign workers and graduates.
• Workforce planning: Strategies may include upskilling, automation, and partnerships with local colleges.
• Compliance: Expect more scrutiny across the TFWP and IMP—maintain meticulous records, clear job descriptions, and transparent housing arrangements.

Provinces and territories

• In‑Canada focus: The 75% PNP rule encourages nominations for local graduates and workers, aiding retention in smaller communities.
• Overseas nominations down: Reduced offshore spots may curb recruitment missions abroad, shifting outreach to those already in province.
• Budget effects: Lower international student intake can reduce tuition revenue; provinces may consider temporary funding relief or housing support.

Public services and communities

• Housing: Fewer arrivals should gradually ease housing pressure, but regional effects will vary—urban areas with large student populations may see the biggest change.
• Healthcare and transit: Lower growth in temporary residents could reduce wait times and congestion, but labor shortages in care roles could worsen without quick training and retention efforts.

Economy and labour market

• Short‑term adjustment: Slower population growth may create tight spots in sectors relying on seasonal or lower‑wage labour (agriculture, hospitality, services).
• Long‑term calibration: The goal is steadier flows aligned with local capacity; consultations may lead to targeted tweaks for critical industries.

Background and timeline

• 2022–2023: Historic highs in temporary inflows, surpassing 2.5 million non‑permanent residents.
• 2024: Ottawa began capping and restricting temporary programs; October 2024 levels plan set the stage.
• 2025: Plan implemented; early quarters show declines in approvals compared with 2023–2024 peaks, and summer arrivals confirm the trend.

Stakeholder reactions

• Immigration lawyers and consultants: Warn about disruption to sectors reliant on temporary labour and students; caution on predictability.
• Economists: See eased rental and service pressure but warn of sharper labour shortages unless provinces and employers respond.
• Educational leaders: Argue sudden caps could harm research, campus jobs, and community life; call for flexibility tied to quality and student support.
• Public opinion: Mixed—some support lower arrivals to relieve services, others worry about competitiveness and sector health.

Practical effects for families

• Spousal work permits: Narrower SOWP rules may leave families with one earner, affecting budgets in high‑cost cities—plan accordingly.
• Children and schooling: Check provincial enrollment rules and any fees tied to the principal applicant’s permit; support services and intake schedules may shift with fewer arrivals.

How institutions are adapting

• Universities and colleges: Emphasize housing, job guidance, and mental health services; review which programs lead to PGWPs and advise students earlier.
• Employers: Revise recruitment cycles, raise wages for shortage roles, and partner with local schools to build pipelines.
• Provinces: Reshape PNP streams to retain more talent already in Canada, especially graduates ready for full‑time work in health care and trades.

What to watch in 2026–2027

• Further reductions: 516,600 target for 2026 signals another year of lower inflows before a limited rebound to 543,600 in 2027.
• Fine‑tuning: Officials may adjust measures if shortages worsen in critical roles or if schools can demonstrate stronger housing and retention.
• Permanent residence pathways: New routes will focus on people already in Canada—those who studied or worked domestically.
• Digital tools: IRCC’s online account rollout continues in 2025–2026 to improve updates and reduce delays.

For official guidance, always check IRCC program pages and notices. Confirm the latest requirements directly with IRCC before applying, as eligibility and intake caps can change during the year. The official portal is here: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

How the story connects to daily life

• A student admitted to a short program may lose PGWP eligibility, altering finances and family reunification timelines.
• A restaurant in a high‑unemployment region may lose access to low‑wage LMIA routes and need to raise wages or invest in training.
• A rural hospital could face recruitment challenges but might gain certainty if provinces steer PNP nominations to in‑Canada graduates and nurses.
• A mid‑sized city with high student housing demand may see rents stabilize if fewer study permit holders arrive.

The federal plan aims to balance trade‑offs: the risk is a sharp slowdown that leaves service gaps and reduces campus activity; the potential benefit is a steadier system where new arrivals better match local jobs and housing. Early signals suggest Ottawa’s targets are steering flows as intended: Q1 2025 approvals (study 96,015, work 186,805, visitor 273,990) and the 15.6% drop in July arrivals point to a step‑down from prior peaks.

For temporary residents already in Canada: track status dates, avoid gaps, and consult a licensed professional before changing programs, jobs, or provinces. For those abroad: confirm your program still leads to your intended outcomes (especially PGWPs) and ensure job offers are in sectors and regions with steady approval patterns under the new rules.

IRCC’s plan marks a clear turn from recent expansion to a more measured pace aimed at system stability. Whether it delivers relief for housing and services—without starving key sectors of talent—will depend on how quickly provinces, schools, and employers adapt, and how Canada keeps doors open for the students and workers it needs most.