Big change in H‑1B and green card soon, says Lutnick — Indians affected?

(UNITED STATES) The U.S. government has launched and signaled sweeping changes to the H-1B visa and employment-based green card system in 2025, setting the stage for a stricter, wage-focused approach that could reshape who gets to work and settle in the United States. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) put a final H-1B modernization rule into effect on January 17, 2025, tightening the definition of “specialty occupation,” adding new integrity checks, and codifying deference to prior approvals.

At the same time, the Trump Administration has moved to prioritize higher-paid roles in the upcoming H-1B selection process and has aligned with business voices calling for a major green card overhaul that would favor high earners. Indian nationals—the largest share of H-1B professionals and the group facing the longest employment-based green card backlogs—stand to gain or lose the most, depending on wages, job level, and timing.

Immediate stakes and expected impacts

The stakes are high and immediate. Under the new rule:

• Employers should expect more scrutiny on job duties and wage levels.
• Agencies are likely to issue more Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and conduct more site visits.
• The beneficiary-centric H-1B selection (designed to stop duplicate entries and fraud) remains in place.
• A proposed shift to a wage-based H-1B selection—if finalized later in the year—would prioritize higher-paid jobs in the lottery.

If wage-based selection is adopted, it would tilt the lottery toward higher-paid roles, especially in fields like artificial intelligence and advanced technology, while making it harder for early-career professionals, universities, hospitals, and small businesses to secure visas for needed staff.

What the H-1B modernization rule changes

Key elements of the rule now in force include:

• Stricter reading of “specialty occupation”: Employers must clearly link job duties to degree requirements and show the roles are truly specialized.
• Stronger integrity measures: DHS will use more tools to detect and stop fraud.
• Codified deference policy: USCIS should give weight to prior approvals where facts haven’t materially changed.

Practical results reported by practitioners:

• More RFEs and denials in close cases.
• Companies tightening job descriptions and checking wage data more carefully.
• A tougher review environment overall.

Cap, timelines, and selection mechanics

The H-1B cap remains at 85,000 new visas per fiscal year, including 20,000 reserved for workers with U.S. advanced degrees. Important operational points:

• Registration totals for FY 2025 and FY 2026 have fallen, partly due to anti-fraud checks.
• USCIS retained the beneficiary-centric selection model (counting each unique candidate once across employers).
• Petitions can be filed no earlier than six months before the job start date. For FY 2026 (October 1, 2025 start), filing may begin April 1, 2025.
• Online registration and filing are emphasized; paper remains an option.

These timelines compress planning for employers and workers while administrators increase integrity reviews.

The proposed wage-based selection: arguments and consequences

Current wage rule: employers must pay the higher of the prevailing wage or the company’s actual wage for similar workers.

Proposed change: move wage to the center of selection—granting priority to higher-paying offers.

Supporters argue:

• Rewards the “best and brightest.”
• Reduces incentives for low-pay staffing models.
• Offers a market-based, objective selector.

Critics argue:

• Turns H-1B into a “luxury work permit.”
• Harms early-career professionals who haven’t reached top pay.
• Disadvantages startups, small businesses, universities, hospitals, and sectors with constrained pay budgets.
• Risks sending young talent to other countries with more accessible pathways.

Effects on Indian nationals and other groups

Consequences are likely to be immediate and uneven:

• Senior engineers, data scientists, and AI researchers with top wages could be favored for H-1B selection and potential green card priority.
• Entry-level candidates—many who use H-1B after U.S. degrees or OPT—could be squeezed out.
• Lower-paid but essential sectors (community healthcare, public education, social work, academic research) could lose access to needed foreign professionals.
• Families may face delayed life milestones (marriage, children, home purchases) due to visa uncertainty.

For many Indian H-1B professionals who have waited years or decades for green cards, higher-wage priority could help some but not solve systemic backlogs.

Green card direction and uncertainty

Policy signals point toward prioritizing high-earning, highly skilled immigrants for permanent residence. Notable points:

• Business leaders such as Howard Lutnick (CEO, Cantor Fitzgerald) have publicly said major changes are coming.
• Ideas under discussion include points-based systems or wage priorities, but as of August 27, 2025, no official regulatory text had been published.
• Monthly Visa Bulletins (as of August 2025) showed little forward movement for India in key employment categories.

Implications:

• A wage-centric green card approach could shorten waits for top earners but may push others further back.
• Without congressional statutory changes, per-country caps and annual limits will continue to ration visas.

Numbers and pipeline perspective

• In 2024, around 400,000 H-1B applications were approved (including extensions and employer changes).
• India remains the top source country by a wide margin, followed by China.
• That pipeline feeds the employment-based green card queues where multi-year delays exist for Indian nationals.

A shift toward wage preference may help some at the top move faster, but it will not, by itself, clear the backlog for everyone.

Operational and compliance impacts for employers

Agencies are seeking cleaner data to prevent duplicates and detect fraud. Practical changes employers and practitioners must address:

• Strengthen job descriptions and ensure duties align with degree fields.
• Defend wage levels with proper documentation.
• Prepare for more site visits and follow-up questions (work location, supervision, end-client assignments).
• Expect a shift away from many interview waivers: most nonimmigrant visa applicants are expected to appear in person at consulates after September 2, 2025, with limited exceptions.
• Anticipate longer consular scheduling times and travel complications for those needing new visa stamps.

Immigration attorneys recommend:

1. Ensure job duties align tightly with degree fields.
2. Keep pay levels defensible and well-documented.
3. Track Visa Bulletin dates even when movement is slow.
4. Prepare multiple scenarios for clients, especially Indian nationals.

Sectoral impacts and employer strategies

Large tech and well-funded firms:

• Likely to benefit from rules favoring high pay, as they can offer top salaries.

Startups, small businesses, universities, hospitals:

• Warn the rules would tilt the playing field, making it harder to hire and grow junior talent.
• Public-sector wage limits constrain competitiveness even when skills are rare.

Community consequences:

• Risk of shortages in rural clinics, community hospitals, and public schools that rely on foreign-born professionals.

Program integrity, deference policy, and day-to-day stress

• The deference policy aims to protect long-standing renewals by giving weight to prior approvals when facts are unchanged.
• In practice, stricter specialty occupation readings and integrity checks may reduce the protective effect of deference.
• More RFEs and site visits can stretch processing times and complicate start dates, creating stress for workers with expiring status.
• Employers are building in additional lead time; families are planning for possible gaps in work authorization or travel complications.

Guidance resources

DHS and USCIS have updated public materials. Key resource cited by practitioners:

• USCIS H-1B Specialty Occupations: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations

Employers use that resource to confirm eligibility criteria, timing rules, and documentary needs, even as they prepare for more RFEs and audits.

Planning ahead: scenarios and choices

If the wage-based H-1B selection becomes final later in 2025, implications include:

• Interaction with FY 2027 cycle and beyond.
• Employers may need to choose between raising offers or reshaping hiring strategies toward roles that score well under a wage-centric approach.
• Workers should evaluate how pay affects selection odds and consider geographic or industry moves to improve prospects.
• If a green card overhaul follows, families must revisit long-term strategies: remain in the U.S. through multiple nonimmigrant renewals, or consider alternative countries with faster permanent residence paths.

Bottom line and takeaway

2025 is shaping up as a turning point. The government has tightened program guardrails and is preparing to reward higher pay across temporary and permanent pathways. The effects likely include:

• A change in the profile of who gets to work and stay in the United States.
• Indian nationals—central to today’s H-1B workforce and longest in green card lines—will feel these changes first and most acutely.
• Some will rise faster; others will face steeper obstacles.

Key practitioner advice: focus on detailed, well-supported filings; track policy releases closely; and plan for multiple scenarios as rules evolve.