Aviation Emissions Hit 2024-25 Record High Despite Efficiency Gains

Global aviation CO₂ pollution jumped to its highest level on record in 2024 and is projected to climb again in 2025, even as airlines rolled out more efficient planes and poured money into Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Industry data show a nearly 8% year‑on‑year rise in global aviation emissions in 2024 to an estimated 882 million tonnes of CO₂, surpassing pre‑pandemic levels. The rise has been powered by a strong rebound in passenger demand that outpaced the sector’s progress in cleaner operations and fuels.

In Europe, emissions reached 98% of 2019 levels, with flights within Europe already exceeding their pre‑COVID footprint. These figures underscore a widening gap between climate goals and the pace of actual cuts, thrusting regulators, airlines, and travelers into a tense debate over who pays and how fast the sector must change.

Carbon pricing and coverage gaps

At the center of the debate is carbon pricing. Despite efficiency gains and new aircraft, roughly 70% of aviation CO₂ in Europe remained unpriced in 2024 because most carbon markets focus on flights within the EU, leaving long‑haul journeys largely outside the system.

• Environmental groups say this undermines incentives to cut pollution from international travel.
• Airlines warn that sudden policy shocks would raise costs for passengers and businesses.

The European Union will review its carbon market rules in 2025, with proposals to expand coverage and close loopholes. If adopted, those changes would reshape how intercontinental carriers plan routes, fuel strategies, and prices.

“Aviation emissions are spiraling out of control,” said Krisztina Hencz, aviation policy manager at Transport & Environment, urging lawmakers to expand carbon pricing to cover more flights.

Role and limits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The industry’s optimism rests heavily on SAF, which can deliver lower life‑cycle emissions than conventional jet fuel.

• SAF production doubled from 2023 to 2024 and is expected to double again in 2025 as more plants come online and governments strengthen support (notably the UK and other large markets).
• Yet SAF still makes up only a small share of total fuel use; supply and cost barriers remain.

Even with continued growth, SAF volumes are far from the level needed to curb overall pollution in a period of record demand. Airports, fuel suppliers, and carriers point to rapid progress, while some senior executives doubt that aviation fuels’ carbon footprint can fall by 5% by 2030 without sharper policy support or demand‑side measures.

Global coordination: ICAO and national plans

On the global stage, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is pressing countries to refine and resubmit national decarbonization plans in 2025 to keep the long‑term goal of net‑zero aviation by 2050 in play. ICAO’s current vision calls for lower fuel carbon intensity this decade, with 2025 seen as a milestone for concrete commitments.

• Governments are weighing how to balance booming traffic with climate rules as sector revenue is projected to top $1 trillion in 2025.
• The mismatch between emissions trends and climate targets has widened since the pandemic, when aviation’s footprint collapsed in 2020 and then rebounded by more than 70% over the next few years.

Demand rebound, fleet choices, and operational impacts

The rebound in demand is visible in airport schedules and load factors across the United States, Europe, and Asia‑Pacific. In Europe alone:

• 8.4 million flights from European airports generated 187.6 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2024.

Domestic and regional travel recovered sooner than long‑haul routes, but by late 2024 intercontinental traffic was also rising fast. To capture fare revenue, airlines often expanded capacity by flying older aircraft longer while waiting for delayed deliveries of newer, more efficient jets. That choice blunted some efficiency gains from fleet renewal and operational improvements.

Industry responses and strategic choices

Sustainable Aviation Fuel features in many airline and airport announcements, with:

• Offtake agreements and partnerships between carriers and fuel producers.
• Government incentives and blending mandates (notably in the UK) that require a growing share of SAF in jet fuel.

Producers say policy certainty helps finance large projects, while airlines say the price gap versus conventional jet fuel remains steep. Even if SAF output doubles again, the absolute volume is still small relative to global jet fuel consumption, limiting immediate impacts on total emissions.

Some executives remain optimistic about SAF and other decarbonization steps; others doubt the sector can trim fuel carbon intensity by 5% globally by 2030 without tougher measures.

Core truths emerging from late‑2024 discussions

By late 2024, regulators, airlines, and environmental groups converged on several points:

1. Efficiency alone will not offset rising traffic.
2. SAF scale‑up is essential but currently too slow outside early‑moving regions.
3. Most international flights remain beyond the reach of strong carbon pricing, weakening incentives to invest or change behavior.

These gaps leave room for a mix of policies:

• Broader carbon markets
• Targeted taxes
• Stronger SAF mandates
• Incentives for zero‑emission propulsion in short‑haul segments

Human and economic impacts

The stakes extend beyond airlines and airports. Many people rely on affordable air travel for essential reasons:

• Students, migrant workers, and immigrant families use flights to study, work, and reunite.
• If carbon pricing expands to long‑haul routes, ticket costs may rise—adding pressure to household budgets already strained post‑pandemic.
• Businesses that recruit globally could face higher travel costs for relocations and project work.
• Humanitarian and family travel corridors would also feel price shifts.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com highlights how transportation rules shape real‑life choices for workers, students, and families who depend on reliable air links.

Industry and environmental policy debate

Airlines argue for a clear, stable policy framework to scale investment without sudden fare shocks. They point to:

• Ongoing fleet renewal
• Route optimization
• Partnerships to develop SAF supply

Some carriers also support demand‑side tools that avoid blunt caps, such as encouraging rail on short‑haul routes or supporting virtual meetings.

Environmental groups counter that voluntary steps have limits and push for:

• Firm caps on emissions
• Broader carbon markets including long‑haul flights
• Rules that reduce the most polluting services first

In Europe, the 2025 review of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) is positioned as a pivotal moment that could bring intercontinental flights into stronger pricing schemes or set a path for broader coverage.

Financial, workforce, and equity considerations

From a financial standpoint, the sector’s projected $1 trillion revenue in 2025 reflects a strong recovery—but it also raises the bar for cutting emissions.

• Next‑generation aircraft, electric or hydrogen propulsion could help—especially on short‑haul routes in the 2030s–2040s.
• Relying on future technology risks locking in high emissions now, making mid‑century targets harder to achieve.

For frontline aviation workers (pilots, cabin crew, maintenance, ground handlers), decarbonization is also a jobs story. Rapid growth has created hiring opportunities, while decarbonization promises new roles in fuel logistics, engineering, and sustainability data.

• Unions fear that rapid cost increases or demand dips could pressure wages and schedules.
• Airline managers emphasize that a managed transition can provide time to retrain staff.

Governments must balance sequencing of policies to protect essential travelers and vulnerable households, with clear timelines and phased rules to allow planning.

Regional concentration and targeted policy options

Concentration among top emitters in Europe offers a focused policy lever:

• Ten airlines accounted for 40% of Europe’s aviation emissions in 2024.
• Targeting the largest carriers and longest routes could deliver meaningful absolute cuts via higher carbon prices, stricter reporting, and stronger SAF incentives.

However, carriers warn that higher costs could push travelers toward indirect routes or hubs with weaker climate rules, potentially increasing total emissions. This underscores the need for coordinated international action to avoid leakage.

Key numbers and trends

• Global aviation emissions: ~882 million tonnes in 2024 (record high); projected >900 million tonnes in 2025 if demand continues.
• Europe: 187.6 million tonnes in 2024 (near 2019 levels); intra‑European flights exceeded pre‑COVID levels.
• Coverage gap: ~70% of aviation CO₂ in Europe remained unpriced in 2024.
• Concentration: 10 airlines = 40% of Europe’s emissions in 2024.
• SAF: Output doubled in 2024 and is expected to double again in 2025, but still from a low base.

Practical steps for travelers, employers, and institutions

• Companies can include SAF purchase options in travel budgets.
• Airlines may offer customers the chance to buy SAF shares for their journeys.
• Universities and employers can invest in SAF or choose lower‑emission routes to meet climate goals.
• Travelers and families can check whether their airline operates newer, more efficient aircraft or SAF programs.

These actions do not replace large‑scale policy change but can support the broader shift.

Policy shifts to watch in 2025

1. EU carbon market review
   • Possible expansion to more flights, including intercontinental services, and closure of loopholes that leave most international emissions unpriced. Stronger rules could change long‑haul fares, fuel strategies, and hub choices.
2. ICAO state action plans
   • Countries must submit updated decarbonization plans in 2025 aligned with net‑zero by 2050, including steps for SAF scale‑up and efficiency. Progress will be judged against a vision for a 5% drop in fuel carbon intensity by 2030.
3. SAF mandates and incentives
   • Governments that strengthened support in 2024–2025 (including the UK) are signaling steady growth in blending levels. SAF production doubled in 2024 and is expected to double again in 2025, but supply and cost barriers still limit market share.

Outlook and implications

The path to net‑zero aviation by 2050 remains official policy, but many observers now say it will be difficult to reach without deeper policy moves or some limits on demand growth. Short‑haul electrification and hydrogen may help in later decades; until then, efficiency gains and SAF will carry most of the load.

• If governments expand carbon pricing and give clear signals on SAF support, producers will scale faster and airlines will plan deeper cuts.
• If signals remain weak, emissions are likely to keep climbing with demand, making later action more abrupt and costly.

Travelers, students, immigrant families, employers, airlines, producers, and governments will all be affected by the choices made in 2025. The outcomes of national plans, the EU carbon market review, and SAF mandates will set the tone through 2030.

For global guidance and monitoring, track state action plans and ICAO updates at the International Civil Aviation Organization: https://www.icao.int.

Even in a year of record aviation emissions, there are signals of change: SAF output is accelerating, investment is rising, and policymakers are preparing bigger steps. Whether those steps come fast enough to bend the emissions curve in a period of record demand is the critical test ahead.