Amid Immigration Enforcement, Migrant Farmworker Numbers Are Falling

(UNITED STATES) The United States 🇺🇸 is seeing a sharp drop in the immigrant labor force, with farm owners reporting crop losses and unfilled jobs as stepped-up immigration enforcement reshapes fields and packing houses. From January through July 2025, the U.S. immigrant labor force fell by 1.2 million workers, according to preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by Pew Research Center. Federal labor figures show agricultural employment dropped 7% from March to July 2025—about 155,000 positions—deepening a shortage that growers say is already forcing some to leave fruit on trees and vegetables in the ground.

The decline spans both documented and undocumented workers, but the steepest fall is among those without legal status. About 40% of U.S. farmworkers are foreign-born and lack legal status, with states like New York seeing even higher shares, according to research cited by farm groups and advocacy organizations. Increased worksite actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have targeted farms, construction sites, and repair shops. Farmers describe a climate of fear that pushes people out of jobs or into hiding, even when employers can offer steady work.

Growers say the federal H-2A program—used to hire seasonal foreign workers—has never been larger yet still can’t close the gap. Nearly 400,000 H-2A visas were issued in the past year, and two-thirds of U.S. counties had H-2A workers in 2022 after a nearly 65% rise in program size since 2017. But H-2A is seasonal, slow, and paperwork-heavy. Many farms need help year-round, especially in dairy, nursery, and livestock operations that fall outside the program’s core. Farmers also note that delays in approvals and housing rules can leave workers stuck abroad during critical harvest windows.

Policy changes are adding new pressure. On August 28, 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced it would discontinue the Farm Labor Survey, long used to set the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) for H-2A workers. Without the survey, farmworker wage floors are expected to fall. Farmworker unions and policy analysts warn that lower wages will make these tough jobs even less attractive to U.S.-born workers, while cutting pay for current workers who already earn little for physically demanding, often dangerous work in extreme heat.

Policy shifts and enforcement landscape

The Trump administration has ramped up immigration enforcement across sectors, with raids and audits at farms, construction sites, and small factories. Employer groups say these actions, along with the revocation of status for some documented workers, are a key reason for the sudden contraction in the immigrant labor force.

Key enforcement and immigration trends:
– Monthly net unauthorized inflows fell 82% from December 2024 to March 2025 (from 105,000 to 19,000), according to estimates cited in recent analyses.
– Oxford Economics projects net immigration will fall to an annualized 500,000 by the end of 2025 and remain near that level through 2028.
– States with larger undocumented populations—Louisiana, Florida, and New York—have seen some of the biggest drops.
– States with hardline laws, including Texas and Arizona, remain heavily reliant on H-2A workers, creating a fragile mix of strict enforcement and program dependence.

If H-2A filings slow or consular backlogs grow, seasonal workers may not arrive in time, harming growers and local economies that rely on harvest cash flow. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has stated the administration’s goal is a “100 percent American” farm workforce, but growers and labor experts counter that this goal is out of reach at current pay levels and working conditions.

“Farm work remains poorly paid and risky,” observers note. Heat stress is a major hazard, and farmworkers are 35 times more likely to die from heat-related illness than workers in other industries.

Because many local residents do not apply for or stay in farm jobs, recruitment of U.S. citizens has had a weak track record in numerous regions.

Broader labor-market impacts

Analysis by VisaVerge.com finds the shock to the immigrant labor force is cutting across sectors beyond agriculture, including:
– Construction
– Food processing
– Hospitality

Because immigrants have accounted for at least half of U.S. job growth in recent years, their sudden absence is slowing payroll gains and complicating the Federal Reserve’s reading of a labor market already stretched thin. Employers report rising ratios of job openings to unemployed workers in pockets of the country—especially rural counties where farms, packing sheds, and sawmills compete for the same small labor pool.

Farm economy strains and worker safety

On the ground, the fallout is visible:
– Unharvested crops and closures, with Washington state losing about two farms per month this year.
– Production delays that ripple to truckers, cold storage warehouses, and processors.
– Some packers replacing domestic orders with imports; others scaling back next season’s plantings—reducing local jobs and tax revenue.

Labor advocates warn that lower wages, more raids, and less stability will deepen the shortage by pushing workers away. Groups such as the HEAL Food Alliance and Familias Unidas por la Justicia call for:
– Better pay
– Shade, water, and breaks during high heat
– Stronger protections from retaliation when workers report unsafe conditions (including wildfire smoke and pesticide exposure)
– Faster access to medical care for heat stress

Demographic shifts intensify the strain:
– The average age of crop laborers is rising.
– The share of young workers is shrinking.
– Most hired crop workers today are “settled”—living and working within 75 miles of home—reducing regional mobility.

Automation offers partial relief for tasks like sorting or packing, but challenges remain:
– Machines can’t pick delicate fruits as reliably as skilled humans.
– High costs, training needs, and uneven fields slow adoption.
– Many crops still require human harvests to preserve quality and specialty varieties.

Economists warn the combined effects—enforcement, the end of the Farm Labor Survey, and a smaller pipeline of arrivals—could keep labor scarce while wages stagnate. If AEWR-linked wage floors fall, employers might save short-term costs but still struggle to hire, especially during heat waves and wildfire seasons. Unharvested crops generate no revenue, so farm income could drop even if some costs fall.

Industry groups and research organizations emphasize the need for predictable pathways:
– The American Farm Bureau Federation warns aggressive deportations “would cripple agricultural production in America.”
– The American Immigration Council and other research groups say migrant farmworkers are essential to food production and should be protected rather than blamed.

Short-term risks and long-term consequences

Policy watchers say the next few months are pivotal. Potential outcomes include:
1. If net immigration remains low through harvest and packing season:
– More farms could cut acreage or shut down.
– Packhouses may consolidate, reducing competition and farmer options.
– Rural counties could lose population and school funding.
2. If visa processing slows:
– Well-prepared farms may miss critical harvest windows.
3. If enforcement expands further:
– More workers may leave the labor force entirely.

All paths point to fewer hands in fields and greater risk for a fragile farm economy already facing heat, smoke, and erratic markets. Consumers could see higher prices or more imported produce during peak windows if domestic supply becomes uneven.

For workers, the stakes are life and death. Heat illness is rising, and farmworkers face long hours with little shade during key harvest weeks. Advocates press for:
– Clear heat rules
– Paid rest breaks
– Strong enforcement of safety standards
– Faster access to medical care for heat-related signs

Employers say they need practical guidelines that fit diverse crops and seasons, and a workforce that feels safe coming to work without fear of sudden arrest.

Data and resources

Farmers seeking data on pay trends and labor conditions can review official resources from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, which summarizes national farm labor patterns and wages on its Farm Labor topic page. That page is available at the USDA ERS website: USDA Economic Research Service – Farm Labor.

Conclusion and immediate needs

What happens next will shape the 2026 planting season. Key risks include:
– Fewer domestic workers considering farm jobs if immigration remains tight and wages fall after the Farm Labor Survey ends.
– Returning seasonal workers choosing other destinations if visa processing or enforcement becomes unpredictable.
– More worker exits from the labor force under expanded enforcement, worsening shortages.

Growers, workers, and local officials stress urgency: they need clear policy signals, safe workplaces, and a reliable way to hire those who feed the country. Without timely action, the gap in the farm workforce may widen—and the loss will appear later on supermarket shelves, long after the season ends.